Week 2 recap
This was a nail-biting week. I was up late sweating my advice last week. My LOCK of Chiefs over Colts took overtime to settle. The process was sound. Patrick Mahomes is back, the Colts couldn’t stop the run, at home, and the Vegas line was favorable.
What was missing was factoring in the Colts’ defensive coordinator, Lou Anarumo, who has been very good against the Chiefs. In his now 8 matchups against Mahomes, he has won 3 of them and, other than an 8-point loss in 2023 with Jake Browning starting, has never lost by more than 5 points and has 3 overtime games.
Overall, we went 2-1 again. The San Francisco 49ers picked up the win against the Miami Dolphins. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost to the Cleveland Browns. It’s another week where my 3rd choice didn’t turn out the way we wanted. We will continue to learn from this.
The Trap game of Eagles over Titans almost played out like I said it would. The Eagles pulled out a win but needed a last-second touchdown to do it.
Now that we have more data points, we have a better picture of what teams really are. Some of the historically bad teams aren’t that bad, and some of the preseason favorites are looking very weak right now.
Week 3 is interesting because we only have 3 divisional matchups compared to the previous weeks with 5. That’s one of the rules 1- No divisional games
2- Travel Kills. We want home games
3- Keep track of the Vegas odds
The New “Rule”: Avoid Sparks
While this isn’t a hard-and-fast rule like the other three, it is something I tend to avoid. That is avoiding sparks. The things that could change a team’s dynamics. A new head coach or offensive coordinator. A new quarterback, like we see this week with the Atlanta Falcons starting Michael Penix.
I need to clarify. These are choices, not necessities. The Falcons want to make a change at quarterback. The Giants do not. We do our analysis based on the facts and data points we know. These new changes change the dynamics and almost throw out the previous data point.
The Washington Commanders are an interesting case. They would much rather have Jayden Daniels in, but Marcus Mariota has shown he can be effective in this offense, which was already sputtering with Daniels.
Week 3 picks
LOCK
Detroit Lions over New York Jets
If you are looking at records, this seems like an even matchup, but the standings aren’t the whole story. The Lions are still a very good team despite the 1-1 record, and the Jets are still the Jets despite the 1-1 record. While the season-long outlooks for both teams might have changed, they are still not the same.
Despite being 1-1, the Lions have scored 31 points each week. They have a top skill player at running back and wide receiver and a very good quarterback. The Jets, despite being 1-1, have scored under 23 points each week so far this season. While they have good skill positions, they lack the top-end talent.
Vegas seems to agree with this 6.5-point spread favoring the Lions. While it’s not the biggest line of the week, it does provide enough proof that this game will go the way we need it to.
In consideration
New Orleans Saints over Las Vegas Raiders
Vegas seems to think this is one of the closer games this week. Holding steady at the standard home 3.5-point advantage to the Saints, they clearly have this as a toss-up. It might have to do with the records. The Raiders come to town undefeated and looking to extend that over the 1-1 Saints.
This doesn’t take into account that the Saints have played two perennial playoff contenders and have put up 30 and then 24 points, while the Raiders have played two basement dwellers and scored 27 and 26 points.
Yes, the Raiders are better than we expected. Yes, the Saints have been less exciting than the preseason hype. I still believe that the Saints are the superior team. While the Raiders are certainly on the come-up, this is the Week we see them falter. I don’t think their defense can stop the deep ball threats the Saints have.
In Consideration
Kansas City Chiefs over Miami Dolphins
The Chiefs were my lock last week, and it was a nail-biter. They land in the 3 spot this week for a few reasons. First, since I already used them, I can’t move them up much higher.
Secondly, they also break the travel rule as they go to Miami for this game. In a week where the home teams aren’t the best, it’s okay to consider an away team when so many other things point in their favor,
Vegas gave this the biggest opening line of the week at -11.5 to the Chiefs. It has come down slightly to 10.5, but still the biggest line out there.
Maybe it’s because the Dolphins haven’t scored over 13 points in a game while the Chiefs have posted over 30 in each. It’s a clear mismatch. The Chiefs will be steamrolling towards a 3-0 record while the Dolphins are on their way to possibly making some changes in the organization.
Trap Game
Buffalo Bills over Los Angeles Chargers
I really struggled with this game. I’m a Bills fan, so I want to believe we blow out the Chargers and continue our undefeated streak. On paper, it should be a lock. The Bills are putting up points and yards while the Chargers have been the league’s biggest disaster.
This could also be a trap game for the Bills. They are coming off the big win in the opening of the new stadium. Will the energy be the same? Did the Bills leave too much out on the new field against the Lions? Are they looking ahead to next week’s divisional matchup against their biggest foe, the New England Patriots?
This seems like the classic trap game for a team that is getting all the praise right now. Against a team that is getting all the questions and criticism right now.
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