Week 2 recap
This was a nail-biting week. I was up late sweating my advice last week. My LOCK of Chiefs over Colts took overtime to settle. The process was sound. Patrick Mahomes is back, the Colts couldn’t stop the run, at home, and the Vegas line was favorable.
What was missing was factoring in the Colts’ defensive coordinator, Lou Anarumo, who has been very good against the Chiefs. In his now 8 matchups against Mahomes, he has won 3 of them and, other than an 8-point loss in 2023 with Jake Browning starting, has never lost by more than 5 points and has 3 overtime games.
Overall, we went 2-1 again. The San Francisco 49ers picked up the win against the Miami Dolphins. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost to the Cleveland Browns. It’s another week where my 3rd choice didn’t turn out the way we wanted. We will continue to learn from this.
The Trap game of Eagles over Titans almost played out like I said it would. The Eagles pulled out a win but needed a last-second touchdown to do it.
Now that we have more data points, we have a better picture of what teams really are. Some of the historically bad teams aren’t that bad, and some of the preseason favorites are looking very weak right now.
Week 3 is interesting because we only have 3 divisional matchups compared to the previous weeks with 5. That’s one of the rules 1- No divisional games
2- Travel Kills. We want home games
3- Keep track of the Vegas odds
The New “Rule”: Avoid Sparks
While this isn’t a hard-and-fast rule like the other three, it is something I tend to avoid. That is avoiding sparks. The things that could change a team’s dynamics. A new head coach or offensive coordinator. A new quarterback, like we see this week with the Atlanta Falcons starting Michael Penix.