Week 8 Recap
I was on vacation last week. I never got to publish my article, and I apologize.
I had it written. I was just without internet. I had picked the Cincinnati Bengals and the Buffalo Bills. Both won. I had put the Rams vs. Chargers and Raiders vs. Jets as my two trap games.
The Rams easily handled the Chargers, but the Raiders only beat the Jets by 5 points.
We only have 2 teams on a bye again this week: the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Tennessee Titans.
With our rules, we have 4 teams coming off the bye: the Texans, Saints, Giants, and 49ers.
The Rules
Let’s go back to the rules. As a reminder, here are the current rules 1- No divisional games
2- Travel Kills. We want home games
3- Keep track of the Vegas odds
4- Avoid sparks (new coach, QB)
5- Pick teams coming off byes
Week 9 Picks
Lock
Lions vs Dolphins
The Lions are -7 against the struggling Dolphins. This is an away game for the Lions, which goes against Rule 2, but you can’t always take the home team. The implied total for the Lions is 28 points.
The Lions are third in the league in points per game at 29 points, while the Dolphins are allowing 25.9. The Lions need to keep pace to stay in the playoff and NFC North divisional race. They have struggled the past two weeks against divisional opponents, so look for a get-right game for them this week.
The Dolphins just don’t have the skill level at key positions to keep pace with the Lions, who can beat you on the ground or through the air.
The Lions are also playing for linebacker Jack Campbell, who was injured in last week’s game and has yet to regain motion in his upper body. He has been a key piece of the defense, and watching the post-game locker room footage, you can tell the whole team cares.
Lock in the Lions if you still have them and advance. It’s getting deep into the season, and there aren’t many players left in your survivor pool.
In Consideration
Bears vs Buccaneers
The Chicago Bears look like the best team in the NFC, if not the whole NFL. They are scoring points at will right now and clicking on all phases of the game.
The Buccaneers are the opposite. They are sneaking out wins, but haven’t looked great doing it. They have attempted 14 passes over the past two weeks.
This is a primetime game in Chicago, so expect Bears head coach Ben Johnson to pull out all the stops while the world is watching.
Vegas sees it the same way. The Bears opened up at -5.5 but have since moved to -6.5.
There are some injury concerns for the Bucs, while the Bears are mostly healthy and getting better.
The Bucs have been stingy in allowing points, with the 5th fewest in the league at 18.9, but the Bears aren’t far behind at 20 points allowed per game. On the offensive side of the ball, the Bucs are averaging 22 while the Bears are at 26.
It’s closer than the previous weeks might make you believe, which is why it’s not the lock of the week, but it’s worth considering if you have already used the other teams.
In Consideration
49ers vs Raiders
At one of the biggest spreads of the week at -10, the San Francisco 49ers are a great pick.
The Niners are coming off their bye week, get to stay home and welcome one of their closest neighbors, the Las Vegas Raiders.
The 49ers, despite all the injuries, have averaged 28.1 points per game, which is 4th best in the league. The Raiders are close behind at 6th overall at 26.8 points per game.
The defense is where things get wonky. The 49ers are 6th best, allowing only 20 points per game, while the Raiders are near the bottom of the table at 28.8.
It’s a sign we should easily take the Niners. This late in the season, it’s not often we see such an easy pick, but it’s worth it at this point in your survivor pool.
Trap Game
Saints vs Browns
The New Orleans Saints are coming off the bye week, so they should be well prepared for the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are switching quarterbacks from Deshaun Watson to Shedeur Sanders. It’s a spark that may swing things in the Browns’ favor.
When two rules are contradicting, it makes for the perfect trap game. This game probably goes to the Browns since the Saints are giving up 27.7 points per game while the Browns are holding teams to 21.6.
Neither team is one that instills a ton of confidence for people in survivor pools, so it’s best to avoid it.
Vegas sees it the same way. The game started at a -2.5 for the home Saints and has moved to -3.5. With new players out and some coming back, the continuity of both teams' offenses is somewhat in question.
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