I write my Start/Sit article by selecting someone outside the consensus top-12 at each position and explaining why I believe they can outperform expectations. Conversely, I also pick a player inside the consensus top-12 and explain why I expect them to underperform. Let’s dive in.
Wide Receivers
Struggling with a WR Sit/Start decision? Check out our
Sit/Start Tool for FREE
Start: Parker Washington (JAX) vs. BAL
I hope you’re ready to chop wood and carry water this week, because it feels like a perfect get-right situation for Parker Washington, who’s struggled in fantasy over his last two games. The Ravens just lost their quarterback, Lamar Jackson , and traded for former Arizona Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett , but that trade won’t go through until later this weekend. Temporary starter Joe Fagnano will try to hold down the fort Thursday night until that trade is realized.
The Jaguars are currently 10-point favorites in a matchup with a projected 40-point total. While it makes sense to think Washington may get phased out of the game, as he did last week against a pathetic Colts team, he may be more involved if the Jaguars have to adjust their run-game plan. Their running back Bhayshul Tuten is currently listed as questionable, as he’s dealing with an ankle/foot issue and hasn’t practiced all week. If he’s ruled out, Chris Rodriguez gets the nod as the lead back, which is arguably a significant downgrade, especially in the passing game, since Rodriguez isn’t as prolific of a pass catcher as Tuten. This could mean the offense leans on its other weapons if Rodriguez can’t step up when needed.
What’s more encouraging for Washington’s outlook this week is that Baltimore allows the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers (35.0). They also allow over 12 receptions and over 175 yards per game to the position. The Ravens' defense uses zone coverage on 77% of their plays, and Parker Washington excels at beating it, especially with Liam Coen’s top-10 usage of motion (60.1%) helping him create more separation.
As of this writing, Parker Washington is the consensus WR14 this week. His Vegas player props are set at 63.4 receiving yards and 4.5 receptions, with both at nearly even money. Trevor Lawrence’s pass-attempt player prop is 29.5, so we can use Washington’s 24.5% target share to project 7+ targets for him this game. The volume should be enough if he stays efficient, as his 2.40 yards per route run suggests he can do.
It’s wise to double-check the weather, but the forecast shows only a slight chance of rain for this matchup, so it shouldn’t impact the passing game as much as this year’s monsoon games. Assuming it is mild, Parker is set up well to bounce back for his next top-12 performance.
Sit: Justin Jefferson (MIN) vs. BUF
This one hurts to say because it’s a solid matchup against a Buffalo Bills defense that’s given up the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers per game (37.1). This take has nothing to do with Jefferson, and more to do with his quarterback situation. In fact, Jettas has finished as a top-12 wide receiver in only one game this year: Week 1, when he scored multiple touchdowns and Kyler Murray wasn’t the quarterback for the entire game.
The Vikings have simply leaned into their defense to carry them to their current record, instead of relying on Kyler Murray’s arm. The game is tied for the sixth-highest projected point total for the week (45.5 points), and while the Vikings are projected to score three touchdowns worth of points, the volume simply might not be there for Jefferson to be a reliable top-12 option, and he’s currently the consensus-ranked WR11 for the week.
I would feel more optimistic about the passing game, as sad as it sounds, if backup quarterback Carson Wentz were manning the helm instead of the questionable-to-play Kyler Murray, who’s averaging just around 25 pass attempts per game. Kyler also hasn’t thrown for over 250 yards in a single game this year, and Vegas favors the under on his 210-yard passing prop. Justin Jefferson’s 5.5-reception prop slightly leans the under, and his 68.5-yard receiving prop is about even money, so if he doesn’t score at least one touchdown, he’s unlikely to merit top-12 status.
Weather won’t be a factor in the dome environment. Neither Justin Jefferson nor the matchup is the issue here; it’s the quarterback situation, which is why I’m much more comfortable ranking him as a WR2 than a WR1 until something changes with who’s throwing the ball.
Running Backs
Struggling with an RB Sit/Start decision? Check out our
Sit/Start Tool for FREE
Start: Jonah Coleman (DEN) vs. CAR
Jonah Coleman season has arrived! If you follow me on X/Twitter (@TylerSutphenFF), then you’ll know that Coleman was my pre-NFL Draft RB2 of the 2026 rookie class. He’s not a special talent at anything in particular, but he’s good at pretty much everything. RJ Harvey is on the injured reserve, and J.K. Dobbins is a shell of himself. Coleman is clearly the best running back on the team right now, so I’m going full steam ahead. Unless Sean Payton, Sean Payton’s it up for us, Coleman is set up well in this matchup against Carolina.
Carolina’s defense has been mediocre at preventing fantasy points to the running back position this season (18th), but over the last three games they’ve been even worse! They’ve allowed over a touchdown per game (1.7) and over 100 rushing and receiving yards per game to running backs in that timeframe. This has made them the 4th-worst defense at preventing fantasy points to running backs (28.8 points per game).
The projected point total is 43.5, with the Broncos favored to win, which should help the game script for Coleman, even if he does catch passes while Dobbins doesn’t. Coleman finished last week as the RB12 on just 11 rush attempts and 5 targets, with 41 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, four receptions, and 63 receiving yards. His rushing volume will likely increase after this breakout performance.
Vegas agrees with me that his role is expected to continue to grow. His current player props are set at 84.5 total yards (-115 O, -115 U), 12.5 rush attempts (-130 O), 3.5 receptions (-116 O, -116 U), and even money for an anytime touchdown. If he hits all of these numbers, he ends up with 18.5 points, which is clearly good enough for a top-12 finish at RB.
The weather forecast for this matchup is clear and sunny, just like the runway for Coleman to continue his success! Fire him up with confidence this week!
Sit: Josh Jacobs (GB) vs. NE
Josh Jacobs is back and has delivered back-to-back 20-point performances. That’s great until you dig a little deeper. First, look at who he was playing. Let’s be honest, Detroit and Carolina aren’t making anyone second-guess their running back start/sit decisions. Next, let’s look at how he got to that fantasy production. His rushing efficiency has been brutal (2.57 yards per carry), and his receiving efficiency has been hit-or-miss. Averaging over five receptions per game so far is good, but he’s relied heavily on touchdown equity after scoring three times in two games. Touchdowns are the most volatile stat in the game.
This week, Jacobs faces a stout New England defense that ranks top-six in preventing fantasy points to running backs (19.0 points per game). Jacobs is the consensus RB12 for the week, and I think he'll struggle to keep up the momentum he’s had in fantasy if his touchdown luck evaporates.
The matchup has a projected point total of 47.5 points, with the Patriots being favored to win. While Jacobs can catch passes, we could see him phased out of the run game, which would hurt his floor, since his efficiency likely won't make up for it. Vegas has his current props set to slightly favor the under at 69.5 rushing and receiving yards and slightly favor the over 3.5 receptions. Just hitting these metrics alone would require him to fall into the end zone again to finish as a top-12 running back this week. The Patriots are allowing an average of 0.0 receiving touchdowns and 0.6 rushing touchdowns per game this season.
The weather in this matchup is forecast to be mild and partly cloudy, so it shouldn’t affect this game. Jacobs is a massive sell-high candidate for me in both redraft and dynasty, as people will fall in love with the fantasy points and not realize that the efficiency just isn’t there. He looks old and slow, and without falling into the end zone, we’re looking at a slightly better David Montgomery because he’s more involved in the receiving game.
Looking for MORE fantasy football insight? Check out our ARTICLES page
Think Like a GM
Start managing your team on Dynatyze, where our data & tools lead to championships. Sign up today and dominate your league.