I write my Start/Sit article by selecting someone outside the consensus top-12 at each position and explaining why I believe they can outperform expectations. Conversely, I also pick a player inside the consensus top-12 and explain why I expect them to underperform. Let’s dive in.
Quarterbacks
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Start: Malik Willis (MIA) vs. DET
I don’t know about you, but I’ve seen some gross decisions on who people are starting right now as they navigate bye weeks and injuries. Malik Willis is a solid streaming option this week with significant upside should you find yourself in a bind at the quarterback position.
Miami takes on Detroit in a game with a projected point total of 50.5. As has been the case for the year, Detroit’s defense is why we want to target them when debating our quarterback Start/Sit decisions each week. They are allowing the most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position (24.7).
Malik Willis’s rushing upside raises both his floor and ceiling, helping him finish as a top-15 fantasy quarterback in four of the seven games Miami has played this year. Detroit allows 297.7 passing yards, 2.6 passing touchdowns, and over 20 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks. This is arguably the best matchup he’ll get all year, so if he finishes inside the top-12 at the position, this is it.
Vegas is less optimistic, with Willis’s player props set at 206.5 pass yards (-114 O, -114 U), 1.5 passing touchdowns (-200 U), and 29.5 rush yards (-116 O, -114 U). This makes sense because Willis is admittedly a more volatile fantasy player. However, if you’re shooting for upside, he’s averaging over 18 points per game over the last three games, averaging 32.1 rushing yards per game, and isn’t afraid to take shots downfield. He’s currently the consensus QB14 this week.
Pay attention to the weather here, as there’s a slight chance of thunderstorms. If so, we could see even more volatility, and I would probably pivot to another option if possible.
Sit: Jayden Daniels (WSH) vs. LAR
This was a tough week to find someone inside the top-12 of consensus rankings because there are a ton of great matchups, but I’ll make an argument for why Daniels could struggle this week as the consensus-ranked QB11 for this week.
The Rams have been a top-12 defense at preventing fantasy points from opposing quarterbacks (16.0 per week). They've kept opposing quarterbacks at bay by allowing fewer than 200 pass yards and 1.2 passing touchdowns on average. They have, however, been more susceptible to allowing quarterback rushing yards (24.9 yards per game).
Daniels has elite rushing upside, but has trended toward less reliance on his legs, averaging five rush attempts per game since returning from his elbow injury as the Commanders try to keep him healthy and upright. This lack of volume could cap his rushing upside, since he’s not the Jalen Hurts / Josh Allen archetype to be a major rushing factor inside the red zone.
Vegas seems to agree, as the player prop line is eerily similar to Malik Willis’s, albeit in a worse matchup. They have him at 212.5 passing yards (-115 O, -115 U), 1.5 passing touchdowns (-162), and 37.5 rush yards (-116 O, -113 U). This Rams defensive unit has also been top-12 at preventing running back rush yards, and Commanders running back Rachaad White isn’t an elite talent, so this offense could very easily stall in a game where weather won’t have an impact.
Tight Ends
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Start: Brenton Strange (JAX) vs. BAL
As I mentioned in my Parker Washington section of this week’s WR & RB article , the Jaguars may have a less efficient run game if Bhayshul Tuten misses. Strange is one of those boring, mid TE2s who will have spike weeks when he scores a touchdown. He’s the current consensus TE14 this week, but has a good matchup to exploit.
The Jaguars offense is top-five in EPA/play, and Strange should be more involved than last week’s dud performance, since the Colts got steamrolled. In fact, three games prior, Strange averaged over seven targets, six receptions, and 69 yards per game. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1, but has finished inside the top-10 at the position in two out of the seven games they’ve played.
Baltimore’s defense runs zone coverage 77.7% of the time and middle open coverage 59.5%, where Strange should be able to take advantage. Over the last three games, Baltimore has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to the tight end position (16.4) and an average of one touchdown per game to the position in that span.
Vegas has Strange’s player prop at 35.5 receiving yards and 3.5 receptions, and I think he crushes both this week. If you need a streaming option, or you play in a tight end premium league, Strange is a nice plug-and-play option this week, with only a slight chance of rain during the game based on today’s forecast.
Sit: T.J. Hockenson (MIN) vs. BUF
If I’m saying it makes sense to expect Justin Jefferson to struggle to put up top-12 numbers this week, then I have to double down and say T.J. Hockenson, who’s the consensus-ranked TE9 this week, probably will as well.
Hockenson hasn’t commanded significant target volume outside of Week 4, his only week with more than five targets. He’s also inefficient with his volume, as he’s surpassed 36 receiving yards only twice this year. If he doesn’t score a touchdown, it's hard for him to have a real shot at being a TE1 unless there are significant injuries in the wide receiver room.
It is a good matchup for Hockenson, as the Bills defense has been the 13th worst at allowing fantasy points to the tight end position this year (14.1 points per game). However, as I mentioned earlier, he’s touchdown-dependent in order to finish inside the top-12 this week. Vegas agrees, as his player props are set at 41.5 receiving yards (-115 O, -113 U) and 4.5 receptions (-109 O, -120 U). So even if he hits these marks, he’s sitting at just 9.15 fantasy points, far from TE1 numbers.
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