With the news of Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson holding in at training camp, fantasy managers are concerned about the availability of the first two picks in the draft this year. With both running backs being the same age, out of the same draft class, and both entering their first seasons as the primary bell cow for their team, the contracts they’re looking for should reset the market. But if one resets the market on Monday, the other will have reset it again by Wednesday.
Holding out comes with baggage, and it’s more than the bags of money these players walk away with most of the time. Many of us can recall a player sitting out of training camp and missing time at the start of the season or later down the road, but if we look at the numbers we can see how this impacts the rest of their season and the rest of their career. Let’s look at some of the players who have held out recently.
Ja’Marr Chase - Cincinnati Bengals - 2024
In 2024 Ja’Marr Chase changed the equation a bit by holding in at camp. He was in the facility for the first four weeks of training camp, but didn’t participate in drills. He signed a new contract making him the highest paid non QB in NFL history, and the first wide receiver to get paid over $40 million per year. That season Chase didn’t miss any time in the regular season, and was the WR1 for the season.
What great news! Holding out means Robinson and Gibbs should play great, and they are going to get paid. Win win. Everyone’s happy. End of the article. Before you click off, let’s look at another 2024 hold out.
CeeDee Lamb - Dallas Cowboys - 2024
CeeDee Lamb was embattled in a contract dispute with the Dallas Cowboys before signing his contract to make him the highest paid WR when he signed his contract getting paid $136 million over 4 years. CeeDee missed minicamp and training camp this season and finished the year as WR8 and missed the fantasy championship in Week 17, along with missing Week 18. In Week 9 Lamb suffered an injury to his AC joint, causing his snap rate to drop as the season progressed. After their Week 16 matchup against Tampa Bay, scans indicated he needed immediate treatment, shutting him down for the rest of the season.
Not great news, but if you can get to your fantasy playoffs, then your first round pick has served you well. If Gibbs or Robinson can get you to the fantasy championship game is a big accomplishment. Let’s take another look at another 2024 contract dispute. You’ve probably heard about this one.
Brandon Aiyuk San Francisco 49ers - 2024
If you haven’t heard about Brandon Aiyuk, this is probably your first time on the internet during the football season in the last 3 seasons. Aiyuk has been one of the most disappointing players to own in fantasy after 2023. In 2024 Brandon Aiyuk entered contract negotiations with the San Francisco 49ers, and during his holdout, he missed all of training camp as a hold in, being present in the facility but not participating in drills. He signed a 4 year contract for $120 million. That season he played 7 games and finished as WR 103. He played well in one game that season against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5, and in Week 7 he suffered from an ACL tear when his right knee was hyper extended. Since this injury in 2024, Aiyuk has not seen the field. He has been trying to get the team to trade him to Washington, and in the process lost a lot of the guaranteed money in his contract.
This is about as bad as it gets. Thankfully Aiyuk’s situation isn’t the norm, it’s quite the exception. Apart from going AWOL, Aiyuk got hurt, and hasn’t returned to the field. I don’t suspect Gibbs or Robinson will go AWOL and drive around the hills of California like they’re playing GTA VI, but the injury risk isn’t great. These are receivers, what examples do we have of running backs?
Jonathan Taylor - Indianapolis Colts - 2023
In 2023 Jonathan Taylor was looking to be traded from the Colts, and the dispute became quite bitter. Taylor was looking for a new contract that would reset the RB market, and Colts Owner Jim Irsay refused to negotiate until he had played out the whole of his rookie deal. Taylor then requested a trade and spent some time on the PUP. Later in the season, Taylor and the team made amends and Taylor was signed to a 3 year $42 million contract. That season Taylor missed the first four games after starting the season on the PUP, which mandates that a player not play the first four games of the season. After that 4 week stint, Taylor returned and came back slowly not playing more than 50% of snaps until Week 8. Taylor played in Weeks 8 through 10 and averaged just over 14 points per game in those games before being on bye Week 11. After that Taylor played in just 4 games. Taylor suffered a UCL tear in his thumb toward the end of the season, which kept him out for 3 games leading up to the fantasy playoffs.
This is not what we want to see from the best two running backs in the league this season. They’ve already missed the first week of training camp, and from what I’m seeing talks between the Lions and Gibbs are not active per Ian Rapoport. Reports are saying the Falcons are getting closer to a contract, but nothing has been signed at this point.
Ezekiel Elliott - Dallas Cowboys - 2019
Ezekiel Elliott held out for all of training camp leading up to 2019, and ended up signing a 6 year $90 million contract resetting the market for running backs at the time. Zeke played in 16 games that season and ended up being RB3 on the year. He had 1,777 total yards, scored 14 touchdowns, and played in every game. He was exactly what you wanted if you drafted him 3rd or 4th overall in fantasy drafts after Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley. Zeke stayed healthy, played well, and got paid.
This is as good as it gets. Player gets paid, fans are happy, player stays healthy during the season and probably got you to the playoffs at the very least depending on how well you drafted after the first round.
Conclusion
Contract negotiations are important. They give players an incentive to play well, and the players receive compensation for the great product they put on the field. They’re worth the money. When a team waits to sign a player until they’ve already missed a large portion of camp, it seems like their bodies aren’t readjusted to taking the hits. Sure, the comments will say they’ve been taking hits since middle school, and it’s actually just a break from the hits in training camp. Try telling that to Lions Head Coach Dan Campbell, who calls practice without pads pajama parties. Practicing with contact gets players ready for the full-speed hits and brutal contact that make the games mean something.
If the Lions and the Falcons can get Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson signed this week, they should be able to stay healthy for a while. But each passing week increases the likelihood of these guys missing games. Whether that’s early in the season or later on due to injury. It’s hard to predict injuries, and nothing is a guarantee, but the sooner these guys get to practice, the better.
The fantasy impact for these holdouts depends on when they come back. But as of this moment, taking Ja’Marr Chase or Puka Nacua ahead of these two backs isn’t out of the question. If these holdouts last much longer, I can see the draft value for these backs dropping to the middle of the first.
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To see our top 30 RB rankings for 2026, check out https://dynatyze.com/football/articles/the-perfect-build-based-on-draft-position