Running Backs
Start: D’Andre Swift (Chi)
D’Andre Swift is off the injury report, just signed an extension, and is set to lead the backfield in touches this season. He’s been undervalued all offseason, as he annually finishes inside the top-24 at the position. He’s the consensus-ranked RB16 this week and is projected to score 14.3 fantasy points in points per reception (PPR) leagues.
Last year, Carolina’s defense struggled against running backs, as they allowed the 24th most yards per carry (YPC) at 4.6, and they finished 31st in yards allowed before contact. Opposing running backs don’t have to be hyper-efficient because this defense is getting bullied before they even make contact.
This unit allowed 24 points to running backs last year and is considered a bottom-third unit going into the season. They attempted to address the defensive issues with notable signings like linebackers Devin Lloyd and Jaelan Phillips in free agency, as well as drafting defensive tackle Lee Hunter in the second round . This is good additional talent, but won’t fix them overnight.
The Chicago Bears have the sixth-best team implied total this week at 25.3 points. As the favored team in this matchup, expect plenty of volume for Swift in both rush attempts and targets.
Volume is king, so getting 17-20 total touches from your RB2 or even flex spot is a great place to be. Start Swift with confidence, as he has top-12 upside if the Bears offense picks up where they left off in 2025.
Sit: Kenneth Walker (KC)
This is a common theme for me for all Kansas City players this week. Denver is a consensus-ranked top-5 defense again this year, and while they won’t have home-field advantage, it’s wise to temper expectations for this entire Kansas City offense.
With Patrick Mahomes still bouncing back from his ACL injury last year, I do expect heavy volume for Walker . I don’t think it will matter.
Denver allowed just 3.9 YPC (3rd) and ranked top-five in most important defensive metrics, so even with the loss of John Franklin-Myers to free agency, this is still a very good unit.
Kansas City has a team implied total of 23.0 points, which is good enough for the 13th spot going into the weekend. This seems a little optimistic to me, considering that Denver was top-four in points per game allowed at 18.5 last year.
Walker is currently consensus-ranked RB12 this week, with a projection for 15.2 points in PPR leagues. He’s no longer stuck in the timeshare he had in Seattle. That projected increase in volume still matters, which should help keep him in RB2 territory, but he has his work cut out for him if you’re banking on top-12 production for your lineups.
Wide Receivers
Start: Tetairoa McMillan (Car)
As one of my biggest dynasty buy-low, blue-chip wide receivers this offseason, Tetairoa McMillan is set to take a step forward in his sophomore campaign. Bryce Young is the only stink you can really put on TMac after a rookie year where he accounted for a third of Carolina’s pass game with over 1000 receiving yards. You don’t typically see wide receivers perform at that level as a rookie and fade off into irrelevancy, especially as a great college prospect entering the NFL.
The sneaky stat that not many in the general population are talking about is his slot usage. Last year, McMillan was running routes from the slot at just 15% as the team’s alpha wide receiver. Beat reporters this offseason have discussed Carolina’s interest in boosting that number to nearly double. That’s huge for his production, as a “big slot” role should improve both efficiency and target share. This makes sense when you look at him gaining weight this offseason, as well as the team making a move to draft someone like Chris Brazzell, who would play well on the outside. Unfortunately, Brazzell is out for the year with an injury, but Jalen Coker is a wide receiver who can also play on the outside.
The Week 1 matchup lines up well for McMillan, as the Bears defense is a consensus ranked near the bottom of the league. While Carolina may try to initially lean on its run game, they’ll have to pass more to keep up with a potentially electric Ben Johnson Bears offense. The Bears’ pass defense is highly in question this year, even with the addition of their new safety Dillon Thieneman . In 2025, they ranked 29th in pressure rate (31.5%) and finished 22nd in sacks (35).
Bryce Young should have plenty of time to operate. Meanwhile, the Bears’ secondary allowed 7.6 yards per attempt (28th) and finished 19th in EPA allowed per pass attempt. Bryce won’t have to be Joe Montana against this defense; he just needs to not be Brucie from The Longest Yard for McMillan to hit this week.
McMillan is currently projected to score 14.2 PPR points this week. His ceiling is much higher in a game that is projected by Vegas to be the 6th-highest game total (47.5) this week. You’ll want to start your studs in this game, and McMillan is one of them.
Sit: Drake London (Atl)
Drake London , as a talent, is borderline elite. Unfortunately for him, his environment is brutal. It’s just been announced that Tua Tagovailoa will not be starting at quarterback this week due to an injury he sustained at practice. Last year’s quarterback Michael Penix is still out recovering from his ACL tear. Now Atlanta is forced to start Cooper Rush this Sunday against the Steelers. Woof.
The Steelers are projected by consensus to be a top-10 defensive unit this season, as they were first in touchdowns allowed in 2025. They were also above average in pressure rate (13th), but more impressively elite at generating sacks (6th). Along with other defensive additions, new cornerback Jamel Dean should pair well with fellow cornerback Joey Porter to help shut down receivers this year.
Most franchises just need their backup to be near league average when called upon. Cooper Rush is a below-average backup quarterback. For his career, he has 15 Big-Time Throws against 28 Turnover-Worthy Plays. This means he’s giving away twice what he’s creating. Last year, in limited action for Baltimore, he produced a pedestrian 6.5 average depth of target (aDOT). In 52 attempts, he threw four picks and took three turnover-worthy plays. All of this, as well as playing in Pittsburgh, spells disaster for this Atlanta offense. They know Cooper Rush is a weak quarterback, so they’d be smart to force him to try to beat them by taking away their run game. With his history of struggling, I have zero faith in his ability to make any magic happen. London’s production will suffer as a result.
London is currently projected to score 15.5 PPR points this week as a top-10 wide receiver option. I’m comfortably taking the under here. This is going to get ugly fast.
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