Quarterbacks
Start: Malik Willis (Mia)
Some weeks, we need to chase a player’s ceiling. This week, Malik Willis gets a nice Week 1 matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Last year, the Raiders finished 20th in defensive EPA/Play. Now, they are projected to be a bottom-third defense this year. Even with Maxx Crosby, their star defensive end, the Raiders were 25th in pressure rate last season. They gave up 7.0 yards per pass attempt last season (15th) and finished with a 1.5% interception rate (26th).
Sample size and roster strength will be why people have less confidence in starting Malik Willis in their lineups. Still, there’s reason for optimism. He’s looked like a changed player since his rookie year. In his 2025 limited sample, Willis showed promise with the stats that isolate him from scheme and weapons around him.
He repeated a 9.1 Big Time Throw Rate (BTT%) in both Week 16 against Chicago and Week 17 against Baltimore. His Adjusted Completion Percentage (ADJ%) was also impressive in this sample, as he averaged 90.9%. The fact that his Pressure to Sack Rate (P2S%) has also dropped significantly each year for the past three years shows that he’s learning how to avoid sacks. One of his best metrics since his rookie year is his Turnover Worthy Play Rate (TWP%). As a rookie, he started out with a 3.6 TWP%, but has since knocked that average down to 1.8 TWP%. As a mobile threat, it makes sense that his Time to Throw (TTT) is elevated, as he tries to extend plays - something he’ll continue to have to do given the void of talent around him.
Rushing is where Willis is most likely to make his production. In both Week 16 and 17 of last year, he cruised to over 40 yards with at least 9 attempts in each game. That’s similar upside to 2022 Justin Fields (Chi), who finished as the QB7 overall, but Willis looks like a more efficient passer.
The team implied total for the Dolphins is set at 13.5 points. That’s not encouraging, but remember rushing is the cheat code for fantasy quarterbacks. Willis should have a solid floor of at least 5 points on the ground without even scoring a touchdown. He doesn’t need to be a prolific passer for this to hit. In 2025’s Week 17 matchup against Baltimore, he only threw the ball 21 times and still finished with 34.02 fantasy points.
If you’re projected to lose by a lot this week, there’s a great case to be made that he could swing the odds in your favor, especially if your primary option has a terrible matchup. He’s currently projected for 16.3 points this week, and I believe he has 20-plus point upside given his rushing prowess and the weaker matchup.
Sit: Jayden Daniels (Was)
The current consensus has Jayden Daniels ranked as a top-12 option this week. While his legs give him elite upside, this matchup away against Philly is less than ideal.
Daniels has decent receiving weapons, but his offensive line is arguably the worst in the league right now. Last year, the Commanders’ offensive line produced a 31.7% Pressure Allowed Rate (26th) and was a mediocre unit at both Hits Allowed (18th) and Sacks Allowed (16th). After losing former center Tyler Biadasz in free agency, they recently lost their tackle Laremy Tunsil to a torn triceps injury. This is a significant blow to an already shaky unit.
This offense still has a lot of question marks, including their scheme, as David Blough is now running things as offensive coordinator. Daniels was electric his rookie year, but struggled to stay healthy after being repeatedly hit.
After displaying a strong -0.051 EPA/Play in 2025, the Eagles are ranked as a top-8 defensive unit, and they have the home-field advantage. The Commanders have a team implied total of 19.5, so there are several factors working against Daniels this week. He’ll have to rely heavily on his legs to overcome all of these obstacles. He’s currently projected for 17.4 points this week, and I think that’s closer to his ceiling outcome.
Tight Ends
Start: Dalton Schultz (Hou)
As the safety blanket for Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud, Schultz is currently ranked as this week’s TE17 by consensus. He finished as the TE10 last year; after losing wide receiver Jayden Higgins, he could sneakily repeat a top-12 finish.
Houston relies on its defense to win games rather than blowing anyone away with their offense. Still, Schultz commanded a top-10 tight end target share of 19.2% and was top-15 in red zone targets too. He’s not going to win your week, but he’s a viable TE in games where the Texans need to throw more.
That should be the case against the Bills this week, who are ranked around league average as a defense going into this year. The Texans have a team implied total of 21.5, and I’m not very confident in running back David Montgomery’s ability to dominate defenses on the ground. I expect a lot of dump-offs and some red-zone looks to come Schultz’s way. Alpha wide receiver Nico Collins is the only other major target earner on this offense. Fellow newcomer wide receiver Kayshon Boutte isn’t a significant target earner, as evident by his 11.7% target share on a depleted wide receiver core in New England last year.
It’ll help if this deadly Houston defense can keep the ball in a friendly area of the field. Schultz is a nice bet for an anytime TD that instantly pushes him into top-12 status for the week. He’s currently projected to score 9.7 PPR points, but there’s a pathway to a 15-point week as Stroud and company play keep up if their elite defense can’t stop Josh Allen (Buf).
Sit: Kyle Pitts (Atl)
Kyle Pitts is a tale of two cities. He’s had moments as a week winner, and he’s had moments where you regret ever drafting him. The talent is there, but quarterback play surely isn’t. Tua Tagovailoa has been named the starter. Which is great news for running back Bijan Robinson owners, given how many dump-offs he’s going to receive, but not something to be optimistic about for Pitts.
Last year, Tua had a 52.9% First Read Throw rate. This tells us that he isn’t processing well enough to go through his progressions. He’s targeting his alpha, which will be Drake London, or dumping it down. Kyle Pitts’ splits between when Drake London was on the field and when he wasn’t also paint a disparaging picture. In 12 games with Drake London, Pitts only accounted for 53 receptions, 506 yards, and 2 touchdowns. That’s a weekly average of 4.4 receptions, 42.2 yards, and .17 touchdowns. That’s roughly 8 points per game. Compared to the 13.5 points per game without London.
Compound those concerns with the fact that the Steelers are a top-4-ranked defense going into the season, and it’s not looking any better. Tua should have a ton of pressure to deal with, and the Falcons only have a team implied total of 19.5 for the week.
Head coach Kevin Stefanski is now coaching there, so we typically like tight ends in his offenses, but there are too many red flags revolving around this offense for me to believe that Pitts finishes as a TE1 without a random touchdown, because the volume simply won’t be there. He’s currently projected to score 12.3 PPR points, but without a touchdown, I think he struggles to get to 10 points this week because Tua is going to struggle to support multiple fantasy-relevant options.
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