Quarterbacks
Start: Malik Willis (Mia)
Some weeks, we need to chase a player’s ceiling. This week, Malik Willis gets a nice Week 1 matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Last year, the Raiders finished 20th in defensive EPA/Play. Now, they are projected to be a bottom-third defense this year. Even with Maxx Crosby, their star defensive end, the Raiders were 25th in pressure rate last season. They gave up 7.0 yards per pass attempt last season (15th) and finished with a 1.5% interception rate (26th).
Sample size and roster strength will be why people have less confidence in starting Malik Willis in their lineups. Still, there’s reason for optimism. He’s looked like a changed player since his rookie year. In his 2025 limited sample, Willis showed promise with the stats that isolate him from scheme and weapons around him.
He repeated a 9.1 Big Time Throw Rate (BTT%) in both Week 16 against Chicago and Week 17 against Baltimore. His Adjusted Completion Percentage (ADJ%) was also impressive in this sample, as he averaged 90.9%. The fact that his Pressure to Sack Rate (P2S%) has also dropped significantly each year for the past three years shows that he’s learning how to avoid sacks. One of his best metrics since his rookie year is his Turnover Worthy Play Rate (TWP%). As a rookie, he started out with a 3.6 TWP%, but has since knocked that average down to 1.8 TWP%. As a mobile threat, it makes sense that his Time to Throw (TTT) is elevated, as he tries to extend plays - something he’ll continue to have to do given the void of talent around him.
Rushing is where Willis is most likely to make his production. In both Week 16 and 17 of last year, he cruised to over 40 yards with at least 9 attempts in each game. That’s similar upside to 2022 Justin Fields (Chi), who finished as the QB7 overall, but Willis looks like a more efficient passer.