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Arizona Cardinals 38 at Tennessee Titans 13. Final.
Titans -2.5 upsetU 54 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 1
Arizona Cardinals 38, Titans 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 8:36, 2nd and 11, on Ryan Tannehill — 14.1 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:36 · 2nd and 11
Ryan Tannehill
Cardinals
(8:36) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 10 for -9 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-98-C.Peters at TEN 5. 98-C.Peters for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 10 for -9 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-98-C.Peters at TEN 5. 98-C.Peters to TEN 1 for 4 yards (11-A.Brown).
Titans closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Arizona Cardinals 38–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:36, Cardinals +14.1% win probability on one snap.
14.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DeAndre HopkinsCardinalsQ1 13:27(13:27) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins pushed ob at TEN 23 for 38 yards (20-J.Jenkins).
7.6pts
A.J. GreenCardinalsQ1 11:54(11:54) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-A.Green pushed ob at TEN 9 for 21 yards (37-A.Hooker).
7.8pts
What separated them
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.33 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.36 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.32 expected points per dropback.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Cardinals won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Titans at 3 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — 1 giveaway, against Titans at 3 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Cardinals168 of 180 plays carry both curves
(8:36) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 10 for -9 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-98-C.Peters at TEN 5. 98-C.Peters for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner brok
Swing −14.1 for TitansExpected points −6.70 for TitansThe model had Cardinals 3 points higher than the market did.play 20
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:36ARI +14% win prob(8:36) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 10 for -9 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-98-C.Peters at TEN 5. 98-C.Peters for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 10 for -9 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-98-C.Peters at TEN 5. 98-C.Peters to TEN 1 for 4 yards (11-A.Brown).
1st · 11:54TEN +8% win prob(11:54) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-A.Green pushed ob at TEN 9 for 21 yards (37-A.Hooker).
1st · 13:27TEN +8% win prob(13:27) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins pushed ob at TEN 23 for 38 yards (20-J.Jenkins).
1st · 1:06ARI +7% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 25 for -8 yards (55-C.Jones).
1st · 3:10TEN +7% win prob(3:10) (Punt formation) 21-M.Farley pass short middle to 37-A.Hooker to TEN 32 for 6 yards (86-D.Harris).
2nd · 8:43TEN +6% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Prater's 34-yard field goal with 9:26 left in the 1st put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:26Matt Prater·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.BrewerLead never changed again+33–0
Cardinals ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Cardinals: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.33Titans: −0.33 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.36Cardinals: +0.36 expected points added per play
−0.32Titans: −0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Cardinals: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.33Titans: −0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 67 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Titans’s 64 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 6, Titans 2.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 14 pts
leaned — got home · +6.3 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+1.29× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Titans11.4%
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 59.6%, 13.5 points above their season mean of 46.1% and 1.4 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Tannehill sacked−10% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:36) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 10 for -9 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-98-C.Peters at TEN 5. 98-C.Peters for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 10 for -9 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-98-C.Peters at TEN 5. 98-C.Peters to TEN 1 for 4 yards (11-A.Brown).
Q1 8:36 · Titans · 2nd & 11 at TEN 19 · lost 14 · -6.70 EP · −10.1% win probability
166 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 75 yards from the TEN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
37%
Yards
664
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.2273%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.2354%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.5660%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR12+0.3175%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.010%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Punt5 plays
Cardinals3Titans0
Field goal11 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Titans 9
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost3 plays
Cardinals9Titans0
Cardinals10Titans0
Touchdown7 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 27
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Cardinals 42
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 33
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter54 plays
Cardinals16Titans0
Cardinals17Titans0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Titans 17
Cardinals17Titans6
Touchdown13 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Cardinals 1
Cardinals23Titans6
Cardinals24Titans6
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Titans 2
No good11 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Cardinals 28
The period ended6 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Cardinals 48
3rd quarter51 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Cardinals 16 to the Cardinals 23
Cardinals24Titans12
Cardinals24Titans13
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cardinals 32 to the Cardinals 13
Cardinals30Titans13
Cardinals31Titans13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Titans 26
Intercepted5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 30
Punt4 plays
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Titans 10 to the Titans 44
Cardinals37Titans13
Cardinals38Titans13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Titans 11
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Cardinals 49
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter29 plays
No good7 plays, from the Titans 37 to the Titans 25
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Cardinals 31
Punt11 plays, from the Cardinals 34 to the Titans 41
The period ended4 plays, from the Titans 3 to the Titans 12
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
