2021 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 12, 2021 · Nissan Stadium

Arizona CardinalsWinner

Tennessee Titans

TEN -2.5 upsetU 54 ✓Titans closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Arizona Cardinals 38–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:36, ARI +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 8:36ARI — TEN TEN ball · 2nd & 11ARI 57%

(8:36) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 10 for -9 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-98-C.Peters at TEN 5. 98-C.Peters for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner brok

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 8:36ARI +14% win prob(8:36) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 10 for -9 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-98-C.Peters at TEN 5. 98-C.Peters for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 10 for -9 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-98-C.Peters at TEN 5. 98-C.Peters to TEN 1 for 4 yards (11-A.Brown).
Q1 · 11:54TEN +8% win prob(11:54) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-A.Green pushed ob at TEN 9 for 21 yards (37-A.Hooker).
Q1 · 13:27TEN +8% win prob(13:27) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins pushed ob at TEN 23 for 38 yards (20-J.Jenkins).
Q1 · 1:06ARI +7% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 25 for -8 yards (55-C.Jones).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Titans
Offensive plays	67	64
Total yards	416 (edge)	248
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	3.9
Expected points added / play	0.19 (edge)	-0.33
Success rate	40%	42% (edge)
Dropback rate	52%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.36 (edge)	-0.32
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.33
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	6
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.33.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

21/32, 289 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

11.8 expected points added · +5.1% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

21/35, 212 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-19.7 expected points added · -6.6% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

Chase EdmondsRB

12 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

17 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-6.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

DeAndre HopkinsWR

6/8 for 83 yds, 2 TD

25% of team targets · 8.9 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Christian KirkWR

5/5 for 70 yds, 2 TD

16% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	5	0	1:33	Punt
2	ARI	ARI 39	8	70	4:05	Turnover on downs
3	TEN	TEN 20	3	-15	0:52	Defensive touchdown
4	ARI	TEN 1	4	5	0:19	Touchdown
5	TEN	TEN 25	5	9	1:27	Punt
6	ARI	ARI 35	4	7	1:25	Punt
7	TEN	TEN 20	8	5	4:48	Punt
8	ARI	ARI 30	10	63	4:32	Touchdown
9	TEN	TEN 25	13	75	4:09	Touchdown
10	ARI	ARI 25	14	67	5:06	Touchdown
11	TEN	TEN 25	9	42	1:30	Turnover on downs
12	ARI	ARI 36	3	48	0:14	End of half
13	ARI	ARI 16	4	7	1:18	Interception
14	TEN	ARI 32	3	32	0:47	Touchdown
15	ARI	ARI 25	8	75	2:15	Touchdown
16	TEN	TEN 25	4	10	1:19	Interception
17	ARI	ARI 47	4	-7	0:56	Punt
18	TEN	TEN 10	6	28	3:07	Fumble
19	ARI	TEN 33	5	33	2:12	Touchdown
20	TEN	TEN 25	11	18	2:22	Turnover on downs
21	ARI	TEN 43	7	18	4:40	Turnover on downs
22	TEN	TEN 33	7	33	2:50	Turnover on downs
23	ARI	ARI 34	9	30	6:19	Punt
24	TEN	TEN 3	3	11	1:55	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 75 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	21/32	289	4	1	2	11.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chase Edmonds	12	63	5.3	0	2.5
James Conner	16	53	3.3	0	-1.4
Kyler Murray	5	20	4.0	1	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	6	8	83	2	25%	8.9
Christian Kirk	5	5	70	2	16%	8.5
Rondale Moore	4	5	68	0	16%	5.0
Chase Edmonds	4	4	43	0	13%	0.1
A.J. Green	2	6	25	0	19%	-1.7
Demetrius Harris	0	3	0	0	9%	-5.5
Maxx Williams	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Budda Baker	5	3	0.0	0	1
Isaiah Simmons	6	2	0.0	1	2
Chandler Jones	6	0	5.0	0	0
Jordan Hicks	3	1	0.0	0	0
Byron Murphy	4	0	0.0	0	3
Robert Alford	3	0	0.0	0	0
Michael Dogbe	3	0	1.0	0	0
Marco Wilson	3	0	0.0	0	0
Corey Peters	2	0	0.0	0	0
Jalen Thompson	2	0	0.0	0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	21/35	212	1	1	6	-19.7
Matthias Farley	1/1	6	0	0	0	3.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	17	58	3.4	0	-6.7
Ryan Tannehill	2	17	8.5	1	2.4
Jeremy McNichols	2	9	4.5	0	0.0
Mekhi Sargent	1	2	2.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chester Rogers	4	6	62	0	17%	1.0
A.J. Brown	4	8	49	1	22%	1.2
Julio Jones	3	6	29	0	17%	-1.4
Jeremy McNichols	3	4	24	0	11%	-1.1
Derrick Henry	3	4	19	0	11%	-0.2
Anthony Firkser	3	4	19	0	11%	0.2
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	1	2	10	0	6%	2.1
Amani Hooker	1	1	6	0	3%	3.1
Geoff Swaim	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Janoris Jenkins	8	0	0.0	0
Jayon Brown	5	2	0.0	0
Amani Hooker	6	0	0.0	0
Rashaan Evans	6	0	0.0	0
Jeffery Simmons	5	0	1.0	0
A.J. Brown	3	0	0.0	0
Harold Landry	3	0	1.0	0
Kristian Fulton	3	0	0.0	2
Olasunkanmi Adeniyi	2	0	0.0	0
Derick Roberson	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -2.5
Closing total: 54
ARI moneyline: +131
TEN moneyline: -146

Titans closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 54; the game landed 51 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 82°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: ARI 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Mike Vrabel