2021 Week 1 · Mon, Sep 13, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

BAL -3 upsetO 50.5 ✓DomeRavens closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Las Vegas Raiders 33–27. Biggest swing: OT 3:44, LV +32% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 3:44BAL — LV LV ball · 2nd & 14LV 68%

(3:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 3:44LV +32% win prob(3:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT · 6:19BAL +31% win prob(6:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 17-W.Snead INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Averett [99-O.Oweh] at BAL -3. Touchback.
OT · 8:44LV +24% win prob(8:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to BAL 39 for 27 yards (32-D.Elliott).
OT · 7:16LV +19% win prob(7:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 89-B.Edwards for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 89-B.Edwards to BAL 1 for 32 yards (21-B.Stephens).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Raiders
Offensive plays	66	78
Total yards	407	491 (edge)
Yards per play	6.2	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.05	0.02 (edge)
Success rate	41%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	59%	76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07	0.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21 (edge)	-0.38
Third downs	3/12	7/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10	10
First downs gained on snaps	19	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

34/56, 435 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

9.6 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

19/30, 235 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.4 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

12 att, 86 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Ty'Son WilliamsRB

9 att, 65 yds, 1 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Darren WallerTE

10/19 for 105 yds, 1 TD

37% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Sammy WatkinsWR

4/8 for 96 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 25	12	57	4:31	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 8	9	29	5:15	Punt
3	LV	LV 24	4	0	0:28	Punt
4	BAL	BAL 35	7	65	2:59	Touchdown
5	LV	LV 15	6	13	1:39	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 20	4	3	0:59	Punt
7	LV	LV 35	4	-5	2:39	Punt
8	BAL	BAL 32	7	72	2:38	Touchdown
9	LV	LV 25	11	66	4:38	Touchdown
10	BAL	BAL 25	8	39	3:02	Turnover on downs
11	LV	LV 36	9	33	1:12	Turnover on downs
12	BAL	BAL 25	7	14	1:50	Punt
13	LV	LV 7	4	4	2:22	Punt
14	BAL	LV 38	6	16	2:24	Turnover on downs
15	LV	LV 20	9	45	5:02	Turnover on downs
16	BAL	BAL 13	6	22	3:33	Punt
17	LV	LV 41	4	8	1:26	Punt
18	BAL	BAL 19	3	19	1:29	Fumble
19	LV	BAL 41	6	41	2:36	Touchdown
20	BAL	BAL 25	8	75	3:14	Touchdown
21	LV	LV 25	11	85	2:20	Touchdown
22	BAL	BAL 25	9	46	3:07	Turnover on downs
23	LV	LV 25	6	38	0:35	Turnover on downs
24	BAL	BAL 25	2	0	0:02	Turnover on downs
25	LV	LV 25	10	74	3:47	Interception
26	BAL	BAL 20	5	7	1:42	Fumble
27	LV	BAL 27	2	32	0:53	Touchdown

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	19/30	235	1	0	3	2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Lamar Jackson	12	86	7.2	0	-1.6
Ty'Son Williams	9	65	7.2	1	1.9
Latavius Murray	10	28	2.8	1	-4.8
Marquise Brown	1	5	5.0	0	0.9
Trenton Cannon	2	5	2.5	0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Sammy Watkins	4	8	96	0	28%	4.0
Marquise Brown	6	6	69	1	21%	6.3
Ty'Son Williams	3	4	29	0	14%	0.3
Mark Andrews	3	5	20	0	17%	-0.5
Patrick Ricard	2	3	15	0	10%	1.1
Devin Duvernay	1	2	6	0	7%	-0.4
Josh Oliver	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Marlon Humphrey	6	3	0.0	0	1
Patrick Queen	6	3	1.0	0	0
Anthony Averett	6	1	0.0	1	1
DeShon Elliott	4	3	0.0	0	0
Tavon Young	2	1	0.0	0	0
Chuck Clark	1	2	0.0	0	3
Chris Board	2	1	0.0	0	0
Chris Westry	3	0	0.0	0	0
Malik Harrison	3	0	0.0	0	0
Brandon Williams	2	1	0.0	0	0

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	34/56	435	2	1	3	9.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Jacobs	10	34	3.4	2	-4.2
Marcus Mariota	1	31	31.0	0	2.1
Kenyan Drake	6	11	1.8	0	-2.7
Derek Carr	4	6	1.5	0	-3.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darren Waller	10	19	105	1	37%	2.3
Bryan Edwards	4	5	81	0	10%	4.8
Hunter Renfrow	6	9	70	0	17%	2.6
Kenyan Drake	5	5	59	0	10%	2.8
Henry Ruggs	2	5	46	0	10%	2.8
Zay Jones	2	2	46	1	4%	5.1
Alec Ingold	4	4	22	0	8%	1.0
Josh Jacobs	1	2	6	0	4%	-0.7
Willie Snead	0	1	0	0	2%	-5.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Johnathan Abram	5	5	0.0	1
Denzel Perryman	5	5	0.0	0
Cory Littleton	4	6	0.0	0
Maxx Crosby	4	2	2.0	0
Trevon Moehrig	2	3	0.0	0
Nick Kwiatkoski	3	2	0.0	0
Carl Nassib	3	0	1.0	0
Yannick Ngakoue	0	3	0.0	1
Trayvon Mullen	2	0	0.0	0
Nate Hobbs	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -3
Closing total: 50.5
BAL moneyline: -167
LV moneyline: +149

Ravens closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 60 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: BAL 7 days · LV 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Jon Gruden