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Baltimore Ravens 27 at Las Vegas Raiders 33. Final.
Ravens -3 upsetO 50.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 1
Las Vegas Raiders 33, Ravens 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at OT 3:44, 2nd and 14, on Zay Jones — 32.1 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 3:44 · 2nd and 14
Zay Jones
Raiders
(3:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Ravens closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Las Vegas Raiders 33–27. Biggest swing: OT 3:44, Raiders +32.1% win probability on one snap.
32.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Hunter RenfrowRaidersOT 8:44(8:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to BAL 39 for 27 yards (32-D.Elliott).
24.4pts
Anthony AverettRavensOT 6:19(6:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 17-W.Snead INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Averett [99-O.Oweh] at BAL -3. Touchback.
30.9pts
What separated them
Third down
Raiders won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Ravens at 3 of 12 on third down.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Raiders won this one — 1 giveaway, against Ravens at 2 giveaways.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — -0.21 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.38 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Raiders at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Ravens194 of 211 plays carry both curves
(3:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +32.1 for RaidersExpected points +4.19 for RaidersModel and market agree here.play 210
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 3:44LV +32% win prob(3:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 6:19BAL +31% win prob(6:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 17-W.Snead INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Averett [99-O.Oweh] at BAL -3. Touchback.
Overtime · 8:44LV +24% win prob(8:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to BAL 39 for 27 yards (32-D.Elliott).
Overtime · 7:16LV +19% win prob(7:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 89-B.Edwards for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 89-B.Edwards to BAL 1 for 32 yards (21-B.Stephens).
4th · 0:07LV +17% win prob(:07) 2-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
4th · 3:50LV +17% win prob(3:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Zay Jones's 31-yard touchdown catch with 3:44 left in overtime put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Raiders ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Ravens: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.02Raiders: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Ravens: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.15Raiders: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.21Ravens: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.38Raiders: −0.38 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 66 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Raiders’s 78 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 3, Raiders 6.
NoteRaiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · −2.3 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 59 dropbacks
Raiders20.5%
inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLV's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.4%, 17.0 points above their season mean of 60.4% and 1.5 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
70Kevin ZeitlerG · Every snap100%68 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%68 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Every snap100%68 snaps
77Bradley BozemanG · Every snap100%68 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
14Sammy WatkinsWR · Full-time82%56 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Full-time81%55 snaps
5Marquise BrownWR · Heavy rotation69%47 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Heavy rotation60%41 snaps
13Devin DuvernayWR · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
72Ben PowersG · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
34Ty'Son WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation51%35 snaps
74Tyre PhillipsG · Rotational43%29 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Rotational31%21 snaps
85Eric TomlinsonTE · Rotational28%19 snaps
39Trenton CannonRB · Situational13%9 snaps
11James ProcheWR · Situational10%7 snaps
65Patrick MekariG · Situational9%6 snaps
84Josh OliverTE · Situational7%5 snaps
Inactive · 5
Jimmy SmithCBDerek WolfeDEAr'Darius WashingtonFSBen ClevelandGDaelin HayesOLB
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
D.Carr pass+32% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT 3:44 · Raiders · 2nd & 14 at BAL 31 · gained 31 · +4.19 EP · +32.1% win probability
192 snaps placed · 19 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 211 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 211 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 75 yards from the LV 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
211 of 211 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
211
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
37%
Yards
897
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.2783%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21-0.5476%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.1480%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR18-0.1961%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR15-0.2820%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.9775%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10-0.0780%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR7-0.7214%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR6+0.2917%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Raiders0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
211 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
211 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Ravens 21
Punt10 plays, from the Ravens 8 to the Ravens 41
Punt4 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Ravens6Raiders0
Ravens7Raiders0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Raiders 35
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 15 to the Raiders 28
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Raiders 41
Ravens13Raiders0
Ravens14Raiders0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Raiders 10
Ravens14Raiders6
Ravens14Raiders7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Ravens 2
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Raiders 36
Ravens14Raiders10
Field goal13 plays, from the Raiders 36 to the Ravens 14
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 44
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 7 to the Raiders 9
Ravens17Raiders10
Field goal6 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Raiders 21
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Ravens 13
The period ended6 plays, from the Ravens 13 to the Ravens 34
4th quarter58 plays
Punt1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 41 to the Raiders 44
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Ravens 19 to the Ravens 36
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Ravens17Raiders16
Ravens17Raiders17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 41 to the Ravens 15
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Ravens23Raiders17
Ravens24Raiders17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Raiders 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Ravens24Raiders23
Ravens24Raiders24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Ravens 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Ravens27Raiders24
Field goal13 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Raiders 29
Ravens27Raiders27
Field goal6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Ravens 37
The period ended3 plays
Overtime23 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted13 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Ravens 1
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerEightPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Ravens27Raiders33
Touchdown3 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Ravens 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -3
Closing total
50.5
Ravens moneyline
-167
Raiders moneyline
+149
Ravens closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 60 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Ravens 7 days · Raiders 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Jon Gruden
4th · 6:31LV +16% win prob(6:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins to LV 8 for 49 yards (25-T.Moehrig). LV-93-G.McCoy was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
4th · 9:24LV +15% win prob(9:24) 28-J.Jacobs right guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
