2021 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 12, 2021 · SoFi Stadium

Chicago Bears

Los Angeles RamsWinner

LA -9.5 ✓O 46 ✓DomeRams closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Los Angeles Rams 34–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:00, CHI +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:00CHI — LA CHI ball · 3rd & 6LA 72%

(12:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left intended for 11-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 22-D.Long (41-K.Young) at LA -8. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:00CHI +10% win prob(12:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left intended for 11-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 22-D.Long (41-K.Young) at LA -8. Touchback.
Q1 · 14:25LA +9% win prob(14:25) (No Huddle) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle pushed ob at LA 12 for 41 yards (41-K.Young).
Q1 · 10:48LA +9% win prob(10:48) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-V.Jefferson for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:26CHI +4% win prob(12:26) PENALTY on CHI-85-C.Kmet, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 3 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Rams
Offensive plays	69	46
Total yards	322	392 (edge)
Yards per play	4.7	8.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.10	0.44 (edge)
Success rate	54% (edge)	50%
Dropback rate	65%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	0.70 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	0.08
Third downs	5/11	6/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.44 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

20/26, 321 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

18.8 expected points added · +8.3% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Andy DaltonQB

27/38, 206 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-10.9 expected points added · -5.0% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

16 att, 108 yds, 1 TD

4.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Darrell HendersonRB

16 att, 70 yds, 1 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

7/10 for 108 yds, 1 TD

38% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Van JeffersonWR

2/3 for 80 yds, 1 TD

12% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 43	6	54	3:06	Interception
2	LA	LA 20	4	80	1:18	Touchdown
3	CHI	CHI 24	8	35	3:19	Turnover on downs
4	LA	LA 41	6	24	2:38	Turnover on downs
5	CHI	CHI 25	7	18	3:25	Fumble
6	LA	LA 42	10	54	4:35	Turnover on downs
7	CHI	CHI 25	9	28	4:21	Punt
8	LA	LA 11	4	-2	2:36	Punt
9	CHI	CHI 45	10	55	4:08	Touchdown
10	LA	LA 25	2	0	0:34	End of half
11	LA	LA 25	6	75	1:08	Touchdown
12	CHI	CHI 19	18	81	9:38	Touchdown
13	LA	LA 25	10	75	2:55	Touchdown
14	CHI	CHI 21	14	49	6:18	Turnover on downs
15	LA	LA 30	13	75	6:44	Touchdown
16	CHI	CHI 25	7	2	0:59	Turnover on downs
17	LA	CHI 27	5	11	2:18	End of game

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 81 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	27/38	206	0	1	3	-10.9
Justin Fields	2/2	10	0	0	0	0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Montgomery	16	108	6.8	1	4.6
Andy Dalton	2	13	6.5	0	1.1
Damien Williams	6	12	2.0	0	-1.6
Justin Fields	1	3	3.0	1	0.9
Marquise Goodwin	1	-2	-2.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Goodwin	4	4	45	10%	5.7
Cole Kmet	5	7	42	18%	2.4
Allen Robinson	6	11	35	28%	-3.3
Damien Williams	4	5	28	13%	-0.7
Darnell Mooney	5	7	26	18%	-8.4
Damiere Byrd	3	3	19	8%	0.1
Jimmy Graham	1	2	11	5%	1.3
David Montgomery	1	1	10	3%	0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	6	5	0.0	0
Alec Ogletree	2	3	0.0	0
Eddie Jackson	5	0	0.0	0
Jaylon Johnson	3	2	0.0	1
Kindle Vildor	2	3	0.0	0
Angelo Blackson	1	3	0.0	0
Akiem Hicks	1	2	0.5	0
Tashaun Gipson	3	0	0.0	0
Marqui Christian	1	0	0.0	0
Robert Quinn	0	1	0.5	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	20/26	321	3	0	1	18.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Darrell Henderson	16	70	4.4	1	2.0
Robert Woods	1	7	7.0	0	0.5
Sony Michel	1	2	2.0	0	-0.3
Matthew Stafford	5	-5	-1.0	0	-4.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	7	10	108	1	38%	5.8
Van Jefferson	2	3	80	1	12%	5.0
Tyler Higbee	5	6	68	0	23%	3.7
Robert Woods	3	4	27	1	15%	2.9
DeSean Jackson	2	2	21	0	8%	1.4
Darrell Henderson	1	1	17	0	4%	1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kenny Young	5	5	0.0	0	1
Jordan Fuller	4	5	0.0	0	0
Taylor Rapp	4	4	0.0	0	0
Jalen Ramsey	5	2	0.0	0	1
Darious Williams	5	2	0.0	0	1
Justin Hollins	4	2	2.0	0	0
David Long	4	0	0.0	1	2
Troy Reeder	2	1	0.0	0	1
Aaron Donald	1	2	1.0	0	0
Sebastian Joseph	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -9.5
Closing total: 46
CHI moneyline: +324
LA moneyline: -387

Rams closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Total closed 46; the game landed 48 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: CHI 7 days · LA 7 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Sean McVay