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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 12, 2021 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 1
It turned at Q4 1:16, 1st and 10, on Mike Hughes — 24.5 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:16 · 1st and 10
Mike Hughes
Chiefs
(1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 88-H.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Hughes [49-D.Sorensen] at KC 42. 21-M.Hughes to KC 42 for no gain (88-H.Bryant).
Kansas City Chiefs 33–29. Biggest swing: Q4 1:16, Chiefs +24.5% win probability on one snap.
24.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 9 of 13 on third down, against Browns at 2 of 7 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Chiefs at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 2 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 4 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 88-H.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Hughes [49-D.Sorensen] at KC 42. 21-M.Hughes to KC 42 for no gain (88-H.Bryant).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Travis Kelce's 8-yard touchdown catch with 7:08 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Harrison Butker43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+322–20
Travis Kelce8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomes · two-point no goodLead never changed again+629–3310 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryChiefs
Browns ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 57 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 60 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Browns 4, Chiefs 6.
Browns outgained Chiefs 459-399 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Browns-2.3 ptsright on their number · +2.5 vs their -4.7 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 56 snaps
Chiefs9.2 ptsright on their number · −0.0 vs their 9.2 pts, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 91%
Tendencies room →Browns53.3%right on their number · +1.6 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 45 early downs
Chiefs65.2%right on their number · +2.4 vs their 62.8%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 129%
Fourth Down room →Browns—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 45.4%.
Chiefs—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 38%
Tendencies room →Browns16.7%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Chiefs15.6%inside their normal wobble · +2.9 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was KC's sack or hit rate, 15.6% against a season mean of 12.7% — and KC swings 5.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
27/36, 337 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
19.4 expected points added · +15.9% completion over expected
Passing · CLE
21/28, 321 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
10.8 expected points added · +14.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Travis Kelce banked 12.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek HillWR · Alpha Receiver | 37.1 | +8.0 | 88% | 86% | 44% | 69% | 1 car, 4 yd · 11/15, 197 yd, 1 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 33.3 | +8.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/36, 337 yd, 3 TD · 5 car, 18 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver | 25.6 | +12.1 | 85% | 81% | 21% | 16% | 6/7, 76 yd, 2 TD |
| Nick ChubbRB · Committee Back | 22.1 | +7.5 | 53% | 34% | 7% | 0% | 15 car, 83 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 18 yd |
| Jarvis LandryWR · Featured Receiver | 19.4 | +9.2 | 86% | 81% | 19% | 6% | 2 car, 13 yd, 1 TD · 5/5, 71 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB · Receiving Back | 17.1 | +5.1 | 47% | 59% | 11% | 0% | 6 car, 33 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 28 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 12.6 | +0.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/28, 321 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 7 yd |
| Anthony SchwartzWR · Featured Receiver | 11.6 | +0.9 | 53% | 50% | 19% | 44% | 1 car, 17 yd · 3/5, 69 yd |
| David NjokuTE · Featured Receiver | 10.6 | +1.4 | 59% | 59% | 19% | 36% | 3/5, 76 yd |
| Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.2 | −2.6 | 72% | 69% | 9% | 0% | 14 car, 43 yd · 3/3, 29 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | +1.0 | 64% | 53% | 11% | 6% | 3/3, 27 yd |
| Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | +0.6 | 69% | 81% | 9% | 0% | 3/3, 19 yd |
| Harrison BryantTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +0.1 | 32% | 31% | 7% | 4% | 1/2, 17 yd |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −2.5 | 74% | 67% | 6% | 10% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Byron PringleWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.3 | 17% | 19% | 6% | 1% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Blake BellTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.2 | 29% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 80% | 78% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Darrel WilliamsRB | 0.4 | −0.1 | 22% | 19% | 0% | — | 1 car, 4 yd |
| Michael BurtonRB | 0.2 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Andy JanovichRB | 0.0 | −1.7 | 19% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Demetric FeltonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Marcus KempWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 88-H.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Hughes [49-D.Sorensen] at KC 42. 21-M.Hughes to KC 42 for no gain (88-H.Bryant).
Q4 1:16 · Browns · 1st & 10 at CLE 48 · gained nothing · -1.97 EP · −26.5% win probability
151 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 87 yards from the CLE 1 for a end of half. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Browns6
Chiefs0Browns8Chiefs0Browns8Chiefs3Browns14Chiefs3Browns15Chiefs3Browns15Chiefs9Browns15Chiefs10Browns21Chiefs10Browns22Chiefs10Browns22Chiefs16Browns22Chiefs17Browns22Chiefs20Browns28Chiefs20Browns29Chiefs20Browns29Chiefs26Browns29Chiefs27Browns29Chiefs33Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 21/28 | 321 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +10.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 15 | 83 | 5.5 | 2 | −0.5 |
| Kareem Hunt | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 3 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 19% | +2.1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 5 | 71 | 0 | 19% | +3.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Walker | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Ward | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| M.J. Stewart | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 27/36 | 337 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +19.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_01_CLE_KC
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -5.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 54.5; the game landed 62 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 1 | +4.8 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Jamie Gillan | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 3 | 5 | 69 | 0 | 19% | +4.1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 11% | +0.2 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 11% | +3.0 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 7% | +1.7 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 7% | −0.9 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Andy Janovich | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| John Johnson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Myles Garrett | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik McDowell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Jackson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jadeveon Clowney | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |
| 43 |
| 3.1 |
| 0 |
| −3.6 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 | +3.8 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Michael Burton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 11 | 15 | 197 | 1 | 44% | +12.8 |
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 7 | 76 | 2 | 21% | +10.2 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 9% | +1.4 |
| Mecole Hardman | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 9% | +1.3 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | −1.2 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Mike Remmers | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Thornhill | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Sorensen | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Hitchens | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Niemann | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tershawn Wharton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Danna | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Jones | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
