2021 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 12, 2021 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Cleveland Browns

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -5.5 no coverO 54.5 ✓Chiefs closed -5.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 33–29. Biggest swing: Q4 1:16, CLE +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:16CLE — KC CLE ball · 1st & 10KC 73%

(1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 88-H.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Hughes [49-D.Sorensen] at KC 42. 21-M.Hughes to KC 42 for no gain (88-H.Bryant).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:16CLE +25% win prob(1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 88-H.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Hughes [49-D.Sorensen] at KC 42. 21-M.Hughes to KC 42 for no gain (88-H.Bryant).
Q4 · 10:24KC +18% win prob(10:24) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-J.Elliott].
Q3 · 6:03CLE +17% win prob(6:03) 24-N.Chubb right end to KC 48 for 4 yards (22-J.Thornhill). FUMBLES (22-J.Thornhill), RECOVERED by KC-56-B.Niemann at KC 47.
Q4 · 8:42CLE +14% win prob(8:42) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 10, and recovers at CLE 11. 7-J.Gillan to CLE 15 for 4 yards (85-M.Kemp).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Chiefs
Offensive plays	57	60
Total yards	459 (edge)	399
Yards per play	8.1 (edge)	6.7
Expected points added / play	0.28	0.34 (edge)
Success rate	60% (edge)	48%
Dropback rate	56%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.38	0.55 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	2/7	9/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	22
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Browns outgained Chiefs 459–399 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

27/36, 337 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

19.4 expected points added · +15.9% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

21/28, 321 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

10.8 expected points added · +14.2% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

15 att, 83 yds, 2 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB

14 att, 43 yds, 0 TD

-3.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

11/15 for 197 yds, 1 TD

44% of team targets · 12.8 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

David NjokuTE

3/5 for 76 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 2.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	15	77	7:07	Touchdown
2	KC	KC 19	11	76	6:02	Turnover on downs
3	CLE	CLE 25	8	75	3:23	Touchdown
4	KC	KC 25	14	70	6:58	Touchdown
5	CLE	CLE 19	8	71	3:35	Touchdown
6	KC	KC 18	7	37	1:24	Punt
7	CLE	CLE 1	7	97	1:31	End of half
8	KC	KC 25	16	80	7:33	Touchdown
9	CLE	CLE 25	4	27	1:31	Fumble
10	KC	KC 47	10	33	5:24	Turnover on downs
11	CLE	CLE 25	11	75	5:08	Touchdown
12	KC	KC 25	3	75	0:14	Touchdown
13	CLE	CLE 25	5	-2	1:34	Turnover on downs
14	KC	CLE 15	4	15	1:32	Touchdown
15	CLE	CLE 25	5	8	1:44	Punt
16	KC	KC 27	7	13	2:31	Punt
17	CLE	CLE 17	5	31	1:40	Interception
18	KC	KC 42	2	0	1:09	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 97 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a end of half.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	21/28	321	0	1	2	10.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	15	83	5.5	2	-0.5
Kareem Hunt	6	33	5.5	1	2.4
Anthony Schwartz	1	17	17.0	0	1.5
Jarvis Landry	2	13	6.5	1	4.8
Baker Mayfield	1	7	7.0	0	0.0
Jamie Gillan	1	0	0.0	0	-3.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
David Njoku	3	5	76	19%	2.1
Jarvis Landry	5	5	71	19%	3.1
Anthony Schwartz	3	5	69	19%	4.1
Kareem Hunt	3	3	28	11%	0.2
Austin Hooper	3	3	27	11%	3.0
Nick Chubb	2	2	18	7%	1.7
Harrison Bryant	1	2	17	7%	-0.9
Donovan Peoples-Jones	1	1	4	4%	0.6
Andy Janovich	0	1	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Anthony Walker	8	2	0.0	0
Denzel Ward	4	2	0.0	1
M.J. Stewart	3	2	0.0	0
Mack Wilson	2	3	0.0	0
John Johnson	4	1	0.0	1
Myles Garrett	2	2	1.0	0
Malik McDowell	2	1	0.0	0
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	2	1	0.0	0
Malik Jackson	2	1	0.0	1
Jadeveon Clowney	2	1	0.0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	27/36	337	3	0	2	19.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	14	43	3.1	0	-3.6
Patrick Mahomes	5	18	3.6	1	3.8
Tyreek Hill	1	4	4.0	0	-0.2
Darrel Williams	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1
Blake Bell	1	2	2.0	0	0.5
Michael Burton	1	2	2.0	0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	11	15	197	1	44%	12.8
Travis Kelce	6	7	76	2	21%	10.2
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	3	3	29	0	9%	1.4
Mecole Hardman	3	3	19	0	9%	1.3
Demarcus Robinson	1	2	9	0	6%	-1.2
Byron Pringle	1	2	6	0	6%	-0.6
Blake Bell	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.3
Mike Remmers	1	1	-2	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Juan Thornhill	5	2	0.0	1
L'Jarius Sneed	7	0	0.0	0
Nick Bolton	4	3	0.0	0
Charvarius Ward	4	0	0.0	0
Daniel Sorensen	2	2	0.0	0
Anthony Hitchens	2	2	0.0	0
Ben Niemann	2	1	0.0	0
Tershawn Wharton	1	2	0.0	0
Michael Danna	1	2	0.0	0
Chris Jones	3	0	2.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -5.5
Closing total: 54.5
CLE moneyline: +211
KC moneyline: -241

Chiefs closed -5.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 54.5; the game landed 62 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 88°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: CLE 7 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Andy Reid