2021 Week 1 · Thu, Sep 9, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium

Dallas Cowboys

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -10 no coverO 52.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -10, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:07, TB +29% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:07DAL — TB TB ball · 4th & 10TB 57%

(:07) 3-R.Succop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:07TB +29% win prob(:07) 3-R.Succop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
Q4 · 0:24TB +18% win prob(:24) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 14-C.Godwin ran ob at DAL 18 for 24 yards.
Q4 · 5:04DAL +16% win prob(5:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 14-C.Godwin to DAL 2 for 11 yards (18-D.Kazee). FUMBLES (18-D.Kazee), RECOVERED by DAL-26-J.Lewis at DAL 0. 26-J.Lewis to DAL 10 for 10 yards (13-M.Evans).
Q4 · 2:00TB +16% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at TB 34 for 31 yards (31-A.Winfield).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	77	64
Total yards	451 (edge)	431
Yards per play	5.9	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.12 (edge)	0.05
Success rate	51%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	81%	78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22 (edge)	0.16
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.29 (edge)	-0.33
Third downs	9/17 (edge)	5/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	24
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	4

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

42/58, 403 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

14.2 expected points added · +6.5% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

32/50, 379 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT

14.0 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

11 att, 33 yds, 0 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

9 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Amari CooperWR

13/17 for 139 yds, 2 TD

30% of team targets · 10.3 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Antonio BrownWR

5/7 for 121 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	5	8	1:42	Punt
2	DAL	DAL 2	10	59	3:46	Punt
3	TB	TB 6	10	94	4:09	Touchdown
4	DAL	DAL 25	9	75	3:48	Touchdown
5	TB	TB 25	7	35	1:53	Punt
6	DAL	DAL 5	4	7	2:01	Punt
7	TB	50	7	50	2:53	Touchdown
8	DAL	DAL 25	8	43	3:12	Turnover on downs
9	TB	TB 21	1	1	0:08	Fumble
10	DAL	TB 27	6	27	2:08	Touchdown
11	TB	TB 20	2	0	0:12	Interception
12	DAL	TB 21	4	4	0:52	Turnover on downs
13	TB	TB 43	4	57	0:38	Touchdown
14	DAL	DAL 25	9	17	2:23	Turnover on downs
15	TB	50	3	0	0:15	Interception
16	DAL	DAL 25	14	56	5:45	Turnover on downs
17	TB	TB 33	5	0	0:31	Punt
18	DAL	DAL 25	1	0	0:13	Interception
19	TB	DAL 35	5	35	2:08	Touchdown
20	DAL	DAL 25	12	75	5:50	Touchdown
21	TB	TB 25	9	23	3:40	Punt
22	DAL	DAL 6	4	2	0:59	Punt
23	TB	TB 37	10	66	6:02	Fumble
24	DAL	DAL 10	11	75	3:28	Turnover on downs
25	TB	TB 25	12	62	1:22	Turnover on downs
26	DAL	DAL 25	2	11	0:02	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 94 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	42/58	403	3	1	1	14.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	11	33	3.0	-3.2
Tony Pollard	3	14	4.7	-1.1
Dak Prescott	4	13	3.3	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	13	17	139	2	30%	10.3
CeeDee Lamb	7	15	104	1	26%	-1.7
Dalton Schultz	6	6	45	0	11%	3.1
Michael Gallup	4	7	36	0	12%	0.9
Tony Pollard	4	4	29	0	7%	1.3
Cedrick Wilson	3	3	24	0	5%	1.3
Blake Jarwin	3	3	20	0	5%	1.2
Ezekiel Elliott	2	2	6	0	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Anthony Brown	6	5	0	0
Jayron Kearse	5	5	0	0
Micah Parsons	3	4	0	1
Keanu Neal	3	3	0	0
Demarcus Lawrence	4	1	0	0
Jaylon Smith	2	2	0	0
Damontae Kazee	2	0	0	1
Jourdan Lewis	0	2	1	2
Leighton Vander Esch	2	0	0	0
Cedrick Wilson	1	0	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	32/50	379	4	2	0	14.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Leonard Fournette	9	32	3.6	0.3
Ronald Jones	4	14	3.5	-5.2
Antonio Brown	1	6	6.0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Antonio Brown	5	7	121	1	16%	7.0
Chris Godwin	9	13	105	1	29%	-1.7
Rob Gronkowski	8	8	90	2	18%	8.6
Leonard Fournette	5	7	27	0	16%	-4.8
Mike Evans	3	6	24	0	13%	0.7
Giovani Bernard	2	3	12	0	7%	0.4
Tyler Johnson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Lavonte David	5	6	0.0	1
Devin White	8	2	0.0	0
Jamel Dean	4	5	0.0	1
Antoine Winfield	5	3	0.0	0
Ross Cockrell	4	2	0.0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	3	3	0.0	0
Shaquil Barrett	3	1	1.0	0
Mike Edwards	2	2	0.0	0
Andrew Adams	3	0	0.0	0
Ali Marpet	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -10
Closing total: 52.5
DAL moneyline: +351
TB moneyline: -425

Buccaneers closed -10, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 60 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 82°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: DAL 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Mike McCarthy vs Bruce Arians