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2021 Week 1 · Thu, Sep 9, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
CowboysDallas29
BY 2final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay31
Dallas Cowboys 29 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31. Final.
Buccaneers -10 no coverO 52.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31, Cowboys 29 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:07, 4th and 10, on Ryan Succop — 28.8 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:07 · 4th and 10
Ryan Succop
Buccaneers
(:07) 3-R.Succop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
Buccaneers closed -10, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:07, Buccaneers +28.8% win probability on one snap.
28.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chris GodwinCowboysQ4 5:04(5:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 14-C.Godwin to DAL 2 for 11 yards (18-D.Kazee). FUMBLES (18-D.Kazee), RECOVERED by DAL-26-J.Lewis at DAL 0. 26-J.Lewis to DAL 10 for 10 yards (13-M.Evans).
16.4pts
Chris GodwinBuccaneersQ4 0:24(:24) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 14-C.Godwin ran ob at DAL 18 for 24 yards.
17.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Buccaneers at 4 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Buccaneers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Cowboys at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 17 on third down, against Buccaneers at 5 of 11 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 6 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Cowboys191 of 201 plays carry both curves
(:07) 3-R.Succop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
Swing +28.8 for BuccaneersExpected points +0.29 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 3 points higher than the market did.play 197
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:07TB +29% win prob(:07) 3-R.Succop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
4th · 0:24TB +18% win prob(:24) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 14-C.Godwin ran ob at DAL 18 for 24 yards.
4th · 5:04DAL +16% win prob(5:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 14-C.Godwin to DAL 2 for 11 yards (18-D.Kazee). FUMBLES (18-D.Kazee), RECOVERED by DAL-26-J.Lewis at DAL 0. 26-J.Lewis to DAL 10 for 10 yards (13-M.Evans).
4th · 2:00TB +16% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at TB 34 for 31 yards (31-A.Winfield).
4th · 0:49TB +14% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski to DAL 42 for 20 yards (27-J.Kearse; 30-A.Brown).
4th · 0:55DAL +14% win prob(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on TB-76-D.Smith, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 37 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ryan Succop's 36-yard field goal with 0:07 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st5:26Chris Godwin·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+70–7
1st1:43CeeDee Lamb·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+77–7
2nd9:53Rob Gronkowski·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+77–14
2nd4:25Amari Cooper·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott · kick no good, hit left upright+613–14
2nd3:21Greg Zuerlein·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+316–14
2nd2:45Antonio Brown·47-yd TD catch47-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+716–21
3rd9:19Greg Zuerlein·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+319–21
3rd6:28Rob Gronkowski·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+719–28
3rd0:39Amari Cooper·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+726–28
4th1:29Greg Zuerlein·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+329–28
4th0:07Ryan Succop·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.TrinerLead never changed again+329–31
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Cowboys5–4Buccaneers
451Total yards431
5.9Yards per play6.7
51%Success rate52%
53%Third-down rate45%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays6
25First downs24
1Sacks taken0
1Turnovers4
The read
Cowboys ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Cowboys: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.05Buccaneers: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Cowboys: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.16Buccaneers: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.29Cowboys: −0.29 expected points added per play
−0.33Buccaneers: −0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 77 snaps at a 81% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 64 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 6, Buccaneers 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
DAL's pass rate over expected, +21.2 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 5.5 points clear of the next team along.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
77 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DAL's sack or hit rate, 4.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
2.2 times their own weekly swing below their number.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DAL's early-down pass rate, 80.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 2.6 points clear of the next team along.
60 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 28 pts
off script — stayed blocked · −12.2 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−2.16× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Buccaneers11.3%
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 62 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 21.2 pts, 20.3 points above their season mean of 0.9 pts and 2.5 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+23% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at TB 34 for 31 yards (31-A.Winfield).
Q4 2:00 · Cowboys · 3rd & 11 at DAL 35 · gained 31 · +2.61 EP · +23.2% win probability
189 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 201 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 201 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 94 yards from the TB 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
201 of 201 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
201
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
49%
Yards
882
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.1988%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.2387%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27+0.0563%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.2858%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Cowboys0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
201 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
201 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 33
Punt11 plays, from the Cowboys 2 to the Buccaneers 39
Cowboys0Buccaneers6
Cowboys0Buccaneers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 6 to the Cowboys 5
Cowboys6Buccaneers7
Cowboys7Buccaneers7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Buccaneers 22
The period ended7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Cowboys 40
2nd quarter58 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 5 to the Cowboys 12
Cowboys7Buccaneers13
Cowboys7Buccaneers14
Touchdown7 plays, from midfield to the Cowboys 2
No good10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Buccaneers 13
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Cowboys13Buccaneers14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Buccaneers 5
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Cowboys16Buccaneers14
Field goal4 plays, from the Buccaneers 21 to the Buccaneers 17
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Cowboys16Buccaneers20
Cowboys16Buccaneers21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Buccaneers 43 to the Cowboys 47
No good12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Buccaneers 21
Intercepted3 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Cowboys19Buccaneers21
Field goal15 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Buccaneers 2
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Buccaneers 38
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Cowboys19Buccaneers27
Cowboys19Buccaneers28
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Cowboys 11
Cowboys25Buccaneers28
Cowboys26Buccaneers28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Buccaneers 21
The period ended4 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 35
4th quarter57 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the Cowboys 47
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 6 to the Cowboys 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Cowboys 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Cowboys29Buccaneers28
Field goal17 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Buccaneers 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Cowboys29Buccaneers31
Field goal14 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Cowboys 18
FormationWildcatOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one receiver, four linebackers, one lineman and three backsDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backs
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
