2021 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 12, 2021 · MetLife Stadium

Denver BroncosWinner

New York Giants

DEN -3 ✓U 41.5 ✓19 mph windBroncos closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.

Denver Broncos 27–13. Biggest swing: Q2 9:07, NYG +13% win probability on one snap. Played in 19 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 9:07DEN — NYG NYG ball · 1st & 10DEN 65%

(9:07) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 3-S.Shepard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 9:07NYG +13% win prob(9:07) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 3-S.Shepard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 2:41NYG +12% win prob(2:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 61 yards to DEN 32, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 43 for 11 yards (82-K.Smith).
Q1 · 14:14NYG +10% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep right to 86-D.Slayton to DEN 30 for 42 yards (23-K.Fuller). Penalty on DEN-96-S.Harris, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q2 · 0:48NYG +10% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to NYG 35 for 14 yards (23-L.Ryan).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Giants
Offensive plays	66	57
Total yards	420 (edge)	315
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	0.28 (edge)	-0.03
Success rate	45% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	62%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.47 (edge)	-0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03	0.00 (edge)
Third downs	7/15	6/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYG

Daniel JonesQB

22/37, 267 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-1.7 expected points added · -3.5% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Teddy BridgewaterQB

28/36, 264 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

23.3 expected points added · +15.4% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

11 att, 101 yds, 1 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

14 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-3.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYG

Sterling ShepardWR

7/9 for 113 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Jerry JeudyWR

6/7 for 72 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYG	NYG 23	8	39	2:39	Punt
2	DEN	DEN 20	6	21	3:09	Punt
3	NYG	NYG 22	4	0	2:12	Punt
4	DEN	DEN 33	15	72	8:42	Turnover on downs
5	NYG	NYG 25	9	70	4:22	Touchdown
6	DEN	DEN 25	9	58	4:51	Fumble
7	NYG	NYG 4	4	3	1:40	Punt
8	DEN	DEN 43	8	57	2:17	Touchdown
9	NYG	NYG 25	2	0	0:08	End of half
10	DEN	DEN 25	18	75	8:12	Touchdown
11	NYG	NYG 25	11	60	4:01	Fumble
12	DEN	DEN 13	10	54	5:03	Turnover on downs
13	NYG	NYG 25	15	48	6:19	Turnover on downs
14	DEN	DEN 6	5	79	1:48	Touchdown
15	NYG	NYG 48	8	31	1:42	Turnover on downs
16	DEN	DEN 21	4	4	1:06	Punt
17	NYG	NYG 36	8	64	1:49	Touchdown

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 79 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	28/36	264	2	0	2	23.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Melvin Gordon	11	101	9.2	1	2.8
Javonte Williams	14	45	3.2	0	-3.6
Teddy Bridgewater	3	19	6.3	0	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jerry Jeudy	6	7	72	0	20%	4.7
Noah Fant	6	8	62	0	23%	3.2
K.J. Hamler	3	4	41	0	11%	5.1
Tim Patrick	4	4	39	1	11%	8.8
Melvin Gordon	3	3	17	0	9%	1.5
Albert Okwuegbunam	3	3	16	1	9%	0.5
Courtland Sutton	1	3	14	0	9%	-0.4
Eric Saubert	1	2	7	0	6%	-0.4
Javonte Williams	1	1	-4	0	3%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Ronald Darby	6	0	0.0	1
Justin Simmons	6	0	0.0	0
Kyle Fuller	6	0	0.0	2
Shelby Harris	2	3	0.0	0
Josey Jewell	4	0	0.0	1
Von Miller	3	0	2.0	0
Shamar Stephen	1	2	0.0	0
DeShawn Williams	2	1	0.0	0
Mike Ford	2	0	0.0	0
Alexander Johnson	2	0	0.0	1

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Daniel Jones	22/37	267	1	0	2	-1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Daniel Jones	6	27	4.5	1	4.0
Saquon Barkley	10	26	2.6	0	-2.1
Devontae Booker	4	7	1.8	0	-2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Sterling Shepard	7	9	113	1	25%	8.2
Darius Slayton	3	7	65	0	19%	1.6
Kenny Golladay	4	6	64	0	17%	-0.9
Kyle Rudolph	2	5	8	0	14%	-2.8
Devontae Booker	1	1	6	0	3%	0.2
C.J. Board	1	1	6	0	3%	0.0
Gary Brightwell	1	1	6	0	3%	-0.1
Saquon Barkley	1	3	1	0	8%	-1.6
Elijhaa Penny	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Kadarius Toney	2	2	-2	0	6%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Blake Martinez	6	3	0.0	0
Logan Ryan	7	2	0.0	0
James Bradberry	4	2	0.0	1
Reggie Ragland	2	4	0.0	0
Austin Johnson	2	3	1.0	0
Adoree' Jackson	2	2	0.0	0
Lorenzo Carter	1	3	0.0	0
Tae Crowder	2	2	0.0	0
Jabrill Peppers	3	0	0.0	0
Darnay Holmes	1	2	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -3
Closing total: 41.5
DEN moneyline: -139
NYG moneyline: +125

Broncos closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 40 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 82°F, wind 19 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: DEN 7 days · NYG 7 days
Coaches: Vic Fangio vs Joe Judge

Wind at 19 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.