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Denver Broncos 27, Giants 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 9:07, 1st and 10, on Sterling Shepard — 13.3 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:07 · 1st and 10
Sterling Shepard
Giants
(9:07) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 3-S.Shepard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Broncos closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Denver Broncos 27–13. Biggest swing: Q2 9:07, Giants +13.3% win probability on one snap.
13.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Darius SlaytonGiantsQ1 14:14(14:14) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep right to 86-D.Slayton to DEN 30 for 42 yards (23-K.Fuller). Penalty on DEN-96-S.Harris, Defensive Offside, declined.
10.4pts
Unnamed on the sheetGiantsQ2 2:41(2:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 61 yards to DEN 32, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 43 for 11 yards (82-K.Smith).
12.0pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.47 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.04 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.28 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.03 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Broncos at 2 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Giants at 3 chunk plays.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Broncos149 of 157 plays carry both curves
(9:07) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 3-S.Shepard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +13.3 for GiantsExpected points +3.47 for GiantsThe model had Giants 18 points higher than the market did.play 45
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 9:07NYG +13% win prob(9:07) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 3-S.Shepard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:41NYG +12% win prob(2:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 61 yards to DEN 32, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 43 for 11 yards (82-K.Smith).
1st · 14:14NYG +10% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep right to 86-D.Slayton to DEN 30 for 42 yards (23-K.Fuller). Penalty on DEN-96-S.Harris, Defensive Offside, declined.
2nd · 0:48NYG +10% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to NYG 35 for 14 yards (23-L.Ryan).
2nd · 4:17DEN +9% win prob(4:17) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 85-A.Okwuegbunam to NYG 4 for 6 yards (23-L.Ryan). FUMBLES (23-L.Ryan), RECOVERED by NYG-23-L.Ryan at NYG 4. 23-L.Ryan ran ob at NYG 4 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
2nd · 5:22NYG +9% win prob(5:22) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 10-J.Jeudy pushed ob at NYG 26 for 11 yards (30-D.Holmes). PENALTY on NYG-30-D.Holmes, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at NYG 26.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tim Patrick's 2-yard touchdown catch with 0:13 left in the 2nd put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd13:21Brandon McManus·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+33–0
2nd9:07Sterling Shepard·37-yd TD catch37-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+73–7
Broncos ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.28Broncos: +0.28 expected points added per play
−0.03Giants: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.47Broncos: +0.47 expected points added per play
−0.04Giants: −0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Broncos: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.00Giants: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 66 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Giants’s 57 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 6, Giants 4.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 26 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.8 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Giants14.6%
right on their number · +3.0 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 7.1%, 5.8 points below their season mean of 12.9% and 1.3 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%66 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%66 snaps
70Bobby MassieT · Every snap100%66 snaps
5Teddy BridgewaterQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
79Lloyd CushenberryC · Every snap100%66 snaps
61Graham GlasgowG · Full-time95%63 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Full-time80%53 snaps
87Noah FantTE · Heavy rotation77%51 snaps
81Tim PatrickWR · Heavy rotation70%46 snaps
85Albert OkwuegbunamTE · Heavy rotation56%37 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Bridgewater pass−15% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:17) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 85-A.Okwuegbunam to NYG 4 for 6 yards (23-L.Ryan). FUMBLES (23-L.Ryan), RECOVERED by NYG-23-L.Ryan at NYG 4. 23-L.Ryan ran ob at NYG 4 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q2 4:17 · Broncos · 2nd & 7 at NYG 10 · gained 6 · -4.38 EP · −14.5% win probability
147 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 157 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 94 yards from the DEN 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
157 of 157 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
157
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
43%
Yards
734
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.1574%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.4875%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.1250%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.6050%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.6120%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Broncos 30
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 41
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 22 to the Giants 30
The period ended12 plays, from the Broncos 33 to the Giants 20
2nd quarter40 plays
Broncos3Giants0
Field goal4 plays, from the Giants 11 to the Giants 5
Broncos3Giants6
Broncos3Giants7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Broncos 37
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Giants 10
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 4 to the Giants 7
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Broncos9Giants7
Broncos10Giants7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 43 to the Giants 2
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Broncos16Giants7
Broncos17Giants7
Touchdown18 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Giants 4
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Broncos 22
The period ended7 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Giants 48
4th quarter48 plays
Broncos20Giants7
Field goal4 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 18
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Broncos 6
Broncos26Giants7
Broncos27Giants7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Broncos 6 to the Broncos 30
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Giants 48 to the Broncos 16
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Broncos 25
Broncos27Giants13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 36 to the Broncos 4
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
