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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 12, 2021 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 1
It turned at Q2 9:07, 1st and 10, on Sterling Shepard — 13.3 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Denver Broncos 27–13. Biggest swing: Q2 9:07, Giants +13.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:07 · 1st and 10
Sterling Shepard
Giants
(9:07) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 3-S.Shepard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.47 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.04 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.28 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.03 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Broncos at 2 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Giants at 3 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(9:07) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 3-S.Shepard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tim Patrick's 2-yard touchdown catch with 0:13 left in the 2nd put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Tim Patrick2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Teddy BridgewaterLead never changed again+710–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryGiants
Broncos ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 66 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Giants’s 57 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 6, Giants 4.
Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 26 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos1.3 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +5.9 vs their -4.6 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 66 snaps
Giants-2.0 ptsright on their number · −0.1 vs their -1.9 pts, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 94%
Tendencies room →Broncos50.0%right on their number · −2.2 vs their 52.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 48 early downs
Giants66.7%inside their normal wobble · +8.9 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±14.0 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 98%
Fourth Down room →Broncos40.0%right on their number · +5.4 vs their 34.6%, and they swing ±24.6 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Giants—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 29.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 29%
Tendencies room →Broncos7.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −5.8 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Giants14.6%right on their number · +3.0 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
DEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 7.1%, 5.8 points below their season mean of 12.9% and 1.3 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New York Giants
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYG
22/37, 267 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-1.7 expected points added · -3.5% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
28/36, 264 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
23.3 expected points added · +15.4% completion over expected
Receiving · NYG
7/9 for 113 yds, 1 TD
25% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Melvin Gordon banked 10.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling ShepardWR · Alpha Receiver | 24.3 | +10.1 | 95% | 86% | 25% | 31% | 7/9, 113 yd, 1 TD |
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 21.4 | 0.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/37, 267 yd, 1 TD · 6 car, 27 yd, 1 TD |
| Melvin GordonRB · Committee Back | 20.8 | +10.7 | 50% | 51% | 9% | 0% | 11 car, 101 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 17 yd |
| Teddy BridgewaterQB · Starter QB | 20.5 | −2.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/36, 264 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 19 yd |
| Tim PatrickWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.9 | +5.2 | 70% | 61% | 11% | 11% | 4/4, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Featured Receiver | 13.2 | +2.3 | 47% | 56% | 20% | 27% | 6/7, 72 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Featured Receiver | 12.2 | −1.3 | 77% | 66% | 23% | 18% | 6/8, 62 yd |
| Kenny GolladayWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.4 | −2.3 | 85% | 79% | 17% | 29% | 4/6, 64 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Featured Receiver | 9.5 | −0.5 | 70% | 72% | 19% | 27% | 3/7, 65 yd |
| Albert OkwuegbunamTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.6 | +0.3 | 56% | 44% | 9% | 1% | 3/3, 16 yd, 1 TD |
| K.J. HamlerWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | −0.9 | 36% | 46% | 11% | 28% | 3/4, 41 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 5.1 | −2.9 | 50% | 41% | 3% | 0% | 14 car, 45 yd · 1/1, -4 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Committee Back | 3.7 | −7.3 | 48% | 35% | 8% | 2% | 10 car, 26 yd · 1/3, 1 yd |
| Kyle RudolphTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −6.7 | 77% | 63% | 14% | 11% | 2/5, 8 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −2.7 | 80% | 76% | 9% | 16% | 1/3, 14 yd |
| Devontae BookerRB | 2.3 | −1.3 | 39% | 40% | 3% | 1% | 4 car, 7 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Kadarius ToneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.2 | 33% | 22% | 6% | 0% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Gary BrightwellRB | 1.6 | +0.3 | 13% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| C.J. BoardWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Diontae SpencerWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Kaden SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 48% | 44% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:17) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 85-A.Okwuegbunam to NYG 4 for 6 yards (23-L.Ryan). FUMBLES (23-L.Ryan), RECOVERED by NYG-23-L.Ryan at NYG 4. 23-L.Ryan ran ob at NYG 4 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q2 4:17 · Broncos · 2nd & 7 at NYG 10 · gained 6 · -4.38 EP · −14.5% win probability
147 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 157 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 94 yards from the DEN 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Broncos3
Giants0Broncos3Giants6Broncos3Giants7Broncos9Giants7Broncos10Giants7Broncos16Giants7Broncos17Giants7Broncos20Giants7Broncos26Giants7Broncos27Giants7Broncos27Giants13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 28/36 | 264 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +23.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 11 | 101 | 9.2 | 1 | +2.8 |
| Javonte Williams | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 0 | −3.6 |
| Teddy Bridgewater |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 7 | 72 | 0 | 20% | +4.7 |
| Noah Fant | 6 | 8 | 62 | 0 | 23% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Darby | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Simmons | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Fuller |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 22/37 | 267 | 1 | 0 | 2 | −1.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_01_DEN_NYG
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 40 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 19 |
| 6.3 |
| 0 |
| +1.1 |
| +3.2 |
| K.J. Hamler | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 11% | +5.1 |
| Tim Patrick | 4 | 4 | 39 | 1 | 11% | +8.8 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 9% | +1.5 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 3 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 9% | +0.5 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 9% | −0.4 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6% | −0.4 |
| Javonte Williams | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 3% | −1.2 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Shelby Harris | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josey Jewell | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Von Miller | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shamar Stephen | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeShawn Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Ford | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alexander Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 1 | +4.0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Devontae Booker | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 7 | 9 | 113 | 1 | 25% | +8.2 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 7 | 65 | 0 | 19% | +1.6 |
| Kenny Golladay | 4 | 6 | 64 | 0 | 17% | −0.9 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 14% | −2.8 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| C.J. Board | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Gary Brightwell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8% | −1.6 |
| Elijhaa Penny | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Kadarius Toney | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 6% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Martinez | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Ryan | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Bradberry | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Reggie Ragland | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Johnson | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Carter | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tae Crowder | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnay Holmes | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
