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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 12, 2021 · TIAA Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 1
It turned at Q3 9:41, 2nd and 7, on Paulson Adebo — 16.2 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New Orleans Saints 38–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 9:41, Saints +16.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 9:41 · 2nd and 7
Paulson Adebo
Saints
(9:41) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 29-P.Adebo [70-C.Ringo] at NO 7. 29-P.Adebo to NO 40 for 33 yards (74-E.Jenkins).
16.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.88 expected points per dropback, against Packers at -0.48 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.32 expected points per snap, against Packers at -0.39 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Packers at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints won this one — 5 of 10 on third down, against Packers at 1 of 10 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(9:41) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 29-P.Adebo [70-C.Ringo] at NO 7. 29-P.Adebo to NO 40 for 33 yards (74-E.Jenkins).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Aldrick Rosas's 44-yard field goal with 11:05 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Aldrick Rosas44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+30–37 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categorySaints
Saints ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.88 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 52 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Saints’s 58 at 41%. Red-zone trips: Packers 2, Saints 5.
Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.39.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Packers-1.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −5.4 vs their 3.7 pts, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 52 snaps
Saints-8.5 ptsright on their number · −2.2 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 80%
Tendencies room →Packers66.7%leaned — passed early · +11.1 vs their 55.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.66× that swing) · 39 early downs
Saints37.0%leaned — ran early · −13.4 vs their 50.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−1.16× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 124%
Fourth Down room →Packers75.0%inside their normal wobble · +23.8 vs their 51.2%, and they swing ±28.4 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Saints—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 32.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 34%
Tendencies room →Packers12.5%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Saints18.9%right on their number · +1.5 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
GB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 11.1 points above their season mean of 55.6% and 1.7 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
New Orleans Saints
49 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
14/20, 148 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT
16.5 expected points added · +10.6% completion over expected
Passing · GB
15/28, 133 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-15.9 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jameis Winston banked 11.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis WinstonQB · Starter QB | 29.6 | +11.2 | 97% | — | 0% | — | 14/20, 148 yd, 5 TD · 6 car, 37 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 18.1 | −2.3 | 73% | 71% | 20% | 0% | 20 car, 83 yd · 3/4, 8 yd, 1 TD |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 17.1 | +8.3 | 19% | 33% | 15% | 3% | 3/3, 21 yd, 2 TD |
| Deonte HartyWR · Rotational Receiver | 15.2 | +9.8 | 44% | 50% | 10% | 43% | 2/2, 72 yd, 1 TD |
| Davante AdamsWR · Featured Receiver | 10.6 | 0.0 | 70% | 73% | 21% | 16% | 5/7, 56 yd |
| Chris HoganWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.0 | +4.6 | 23% | 13% | 5% | 7% | 1/1, 10 yd, 1 TD |
| Tony JonesRB · Committee Back | 6.3 | −2.0 | 35% | 25% | 5% | 0% | 11 car, 50 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Alpha Receiver | 4.8 | −5.3 | 82% | 67% | 30% | 20% | 3/6, 18 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Featured Receiver | 4.7 | −9.3 | 63% | 68% | 24% | 47% | 3/8, 17 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | +1.9 | 26% | 30% | 3% | 9% | 1 car, 1 yd · 1/1, 32 yd |
| Aaron JonesRB | 4.2 | −0.9 | 49% | 51% | 6% | 0% | 5 car, 9 yd · 2/2, 13 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB | 3.6 | −1.3 | 28% | 27% | 6% | 0% | 4 car, 19 yd · 1/2, 7 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −3.2 | 68% | 68% | 12% | 12% | 2/4, 16 yd |
| Malik TaylorWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −1.7 | 26% | 22% | 9% | 9% | 2/3, 14 yd |
| Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +1.3 | 26% | 22% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 19 yd |
| Amari RodgersWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +1.3 | 26% | 24% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 19 yd |
| Robert TonyanTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −3.2 | 49% | 57% | 12% | 1% | 2/4, 8 yd |
| Marquez CallawayWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −1.6 | 84% | 75% | 10% | 26% | 1/2, 14 yd |
| Ty MontgomeryWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.8 | 26% | 29% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Kylin HillRB | 1.4 | −1.5 | 25% | 24% | 0% | — | 5 car, 14 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 1.3 | −8.3 | 74% | — | 0% | — | 15/28, 133 yd, 2 INT |
| Jordan LoveQB | 0.7 | −2.3 | 26% | — | 0% | — | 5/7, 68 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 0.2 | −4.6 | 35% | — | 0% | — | 1/1, 3 yd · 2 car, 1 yd |
| Dominique DafneyTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 33% | 30% | 0% | — | No touches. |
1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:41) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 29-P.Adebo [70-C.Ringo] at NO 7. 29-P.Adebo to NO 40 for 33 yards (74-E.Jenkins).
Q3 9:41 · Packers · 2nd & 7 at NO 9 · gained nothing · -6.46 EP · −10.3% win probability
144 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 154 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 80 yards from the NO 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Packers0
Saints3Packers0Saints9Packers0Saints10Packers0Saints16Packers0Saints17Packers3Saints17Packers3Saints23Packers3Saints24Packers3Saints30Packers3Saints31Packers3Saints37Packers3Saints38Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 15/28 | 133 | 0 | 2 | 1 | −15.9 |
| Jordan Love | 5/7 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −1.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dillon | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Kylin Hill | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 5 | 7 | 56 | 0 | 21% | −8.4 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 3% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Amos | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Krys Barnes | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Vondre Campbell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 14/20 | 148 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +16.5 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 3 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_01_GB_NO
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49; the game landed 41 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| +2.5 |
| Amari Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3% | +2.4 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3% | +1.3 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 24% | −4.2 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 12% | −0.9 |
| Malik Taylor | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 9% | −0.4 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | −0.2 |
| Robert Tonyan | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 12% | −0.6 |
| A.J. Dillon | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6% | −0.2 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Preston Smith | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Clark | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaire Alexander | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Lowry | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Lancaster | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elgton Jenkins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tedarrell Slaton | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 20 | 83 | 4.2 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Tony Jones | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Jameis Winston | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 | +4.7 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deonte Harty | 2 | 2 | 72 | 1 | 10% | +6.5 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 15% | +8.0 |
| Adam Trautman | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 30% | −1.8 |
| Marquez Callaway | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 10% | +0.4 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 5% | +3.2 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 20% | +0.4 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | +0.3 |
| Tony Jones | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Baun | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.T. Gray | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshon Lattimore | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcus Davenport | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Albert Huggins | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Jenkins | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jeff Heath | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanoh Kpassagnon | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
