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Green Bay Packers 3 at New Orleans Saints 38. Final.
Packers -4 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 1
New Orleans Saints 38, Packers 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 9:41, 2nd and 7, on Paulson Adebo — 16.2 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 9:41 · 2nd and 7
Paulson Adebo
Saints
(9:41) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 29-P.Adebo [70-C.Ringo] at NO 7. 29-P.Adebo to NO 40 for 33 yards (74-E.Jenkins).
U 49 ✓
Packers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New Orleans Saints 38–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 9:41, Saints +16.2% win probability on one snap.
16.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Juwan JohnsonSaintsQ2 5:08(5:08) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to GB 29 for 12 yards (23-J.Alexander; 26-D.Savage).
8.9pts
Aaron RodgersPackersQ3 11:56(11:56) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 85-R.Tonyan. PENALTY on NO-27-M.Jenkins, Defensive Pass Interference, 6 yards, enforced at NO 31 - No Play.
6.6pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.88 expected points per dropback, against Packers at -0.48 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.32 expected points per snap, against Packers at -0.39 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Packers at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints won this one — 5 of 10 on third down, against Packers at 1 of 10 on third down.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Packers146 of 154 plays carry both curves
(9:41) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 29-P.Adebo [70-C.Ringo] at NO 7. 29-P.Adebo to NO 40 for 33 yards (74-E.Jenkins).
Swing +16.2 for SaintsExpected points +6.46 for SaintsThe model had Saints 12 points higher than the market did.play 88
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 9:41GB +16% win prob(9:41) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 29-P.Adebo [70-C.Ringo] at NO 7. 29-P.Adebo to NO 40 for 33 yards (74-E.Jenkins).
2nd · 5:08NO +9% win prob(5:08) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to GB 29 for 12 yards (23-J.Alexander; 26-D.Savage).
3rd · 11:56NO +7% win prob(11:56) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 85-R.Tonyan. PENALTY on NO-27-M.Jenkins, Defensive Pass Interference, 6 yards, enforced at NO 31 - No Play.
1st · 2:48NO +6% win prob(2:48) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston scrambles right end to GB 25 for 10 yards (31-A.Amos).
2nd · 12:53GB +6% win prob(12:53) 12-Aa.Rodgers sacked at GB 26 for -11 yards (92-M.Davenport).
2nd · 11:17NO +6% win prob(11:17) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to NO 20, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Aldrick Rosas's 44-yard field goal with 11:05 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:05Aldrick Rosas·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+30–3
Saints ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.88 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.39Packers: −0.39 expected points added per play
+0.32Saints: +0.32 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.48Packers: −0.48 expected points added per play
+0.88Saints: +0.88 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Packers: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.07Saints: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 52 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Saints’s 58 at 41%. Red-zone trips: Packers 2, Saints 5.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.39.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Saints18.9%
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 11.1 points above their season mean of 55.6% and 1.7 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive
70Royce NewmanT · Every snap100%57 snaps
62Lucas PatrickG · Every snap100%57 snaps
74Elgton JenkinsG · Every snap100%57 snaps
71Josh MyersC · Every snap100%57 snaps
77Billy TurnerT · Every snap100%57 snaps
12Aaron RodgersQB · Heavy rotation74%42 snaps
17Davante AdamsWR · Heavy rotation70%40 snaps
13Allen LazardWR · Heavy rotation68%39 snaps
83Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation63%36 snaps
1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Aa.Rodgers pass−10% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(9:41) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 29-P.Adebo [70-C.Ringo] at NO 7. 29-P.Adebo to NO 40 for 33 yards (74-E.Jenkins).
Q3 9:41 · Packers · 2nd & 7 at NO 9 · gained nothing · -6.46 EP · −10.3% win probability
144 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 154 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 80 yards from the NO 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
154 of 154 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
154
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
44%
Yards
551
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.3276%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.1429%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR10+0.4650%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.6650%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.0250%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.9914%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR5-0.180%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints3 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Packers0Saints3
Field goal10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Packers 26
Punt10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 38
The period ended14 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Packers 15
2nd quarter40 plays
Packers0Saints9
Packers0Saints10
Touchdown3 plays, from the Packers 6 to the Packers 3
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 37
Packers0Saints16
Packers0Saints17
Touchdown19 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Packers 1
Packers3Saints17
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Saints 21
3rd quarter39 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted13 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Saints 9
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Packers 49
Intercepted4 plays, from the Packers 5 to the Packers 8
Packers3Saints23
Packers3Saints24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Packers 12 to the Packers 10
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Packers 13 to the Packers 22
The period ended5 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Packers 10
4th quarter40 plays
Packers3Saints30
Packers3Saints31
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 34
Packers3Saints37
Packers3Saints38
Touchdown6 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Saints 45
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Saints 48
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 16 to the Saints 24
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Packers 37 to the Saints 5
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
