2021 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 12, 2021 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Green Bay Packers

New Orleans SaintsWinner

GB -4 upsetU 49 ✓Packers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New Orleans Saints 38–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 9:41, GB +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 9:41GB — NO GB ball · 2nd & 7NO 72%

(9:41) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 29-P.Adebo [70-C.Ringo] at NO 7. 29-P.Adebo to NO 40 for 33 yards (74-E.Jenkins).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 9:41GB +16% win prob(9:41) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 29-P.Adebo [70-C.Ringo] at NO 7. 29-P.Adebo to NO 40 for 33 yards (74-E.Jenkins).
Q2 · 5:08NO +9% win prob(5:08) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to GB 29 for 12 yards (23-J.Alexander; 26-D.Savage).
Q3 · 11:56NO +7% win prob(11:56) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 85-R.Tonyan. PENALTY on NO-27-M.Jenkins, Defensive Pass Interference, 6 yards, enforced at NO 31 - No Play.
Q1 · 2:48NO +6% win prob(2:48) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston scrambles right end to GB 25 for 10 yards (31-A.Amos).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Saints
Offensive plays	52	58
Total yards	229	323 (edge)
Yards per play	4.4	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.39	0.32 (edge)
Success rate	37%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	41%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.48	0.88 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	-0.07 (edge)
Third downs	1/10	5/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.39.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Jameis WinstonQB

14/20, 148 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

16.5 expected points added · +10.6% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

15/28, 133 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-15.9 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

20 att, 83 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Tony JonesRB

11 att, 50 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

5/7 for 56 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · -8.4 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Juwan JohnsonTE

3/3 for 21 yds, 2 TD

15% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	10	49	4:00	Turnover on downs
2	GB	GB 25	9	13	3:51	Punt
3	NO	NO 24	16	76	7:51	Touchdown
4	GB	GB 25	7	8	3:11	Punt
5	NO	NO 20	16	83	10:00	Touchdown
6	GB	GB 25	7	49	1:07	Turnover on downs
7	GB	GB 25	11	55	5:30	Interception
8	NO	NO 40	7	15	3:19	Punt
9	GB	GB 5	3	5	1:38	Interception
10	NO	GB 12	4	12	1:26	Touchdown
11	GB	GB 13	5	9	1:32	Turnover on downs
12	NO	GB 21	5	11	1:41	Touchdown
13	GB	GB 25	5	9	1:54	Punt
14	NO	NO 34	5	66	2:14	Touchdown
15	GB	GB 25	8	27	3:45	Punt
16	NO	NO 16	4	11	3:04	Punt
17	GB	GB 37	9	54	2:56	Fumble
18	NO	NO 2	2	0	1:01	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 83 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	15/28	133	0	2	1	-15.9
Jordan Love	5/7	68	0	0	1	-1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
A.J. Dillon	4	19	4.8	0.4
Kylin Hill	5	14	2.8	0.1
Aaron Jones	5	9	1.8	-2.4
Randall Cobb	1	1	1.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	5	7	56	21%	-8.4
Randall Cobb	1	1	32	3%	2.5
Amari Rodgers	1	1	19	3%	2.4
Marcedes Lewis	1	1	19	3%	1.3
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	3	8	17	24%	-4.2
Allen Lazard	2	4	16	12%	-0.9
Malik Taylor	2	3	14	9%	-0.4
Aaron Jones	2	2	13	6%	-0.2
Robert Tonyan	2	4	8	12%	-0.6
A.J. Dillon	1	2	7	6%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast
Adrian Amos	7	2
Krys Barnes	7	1
De'Vondre Campbell	5	1
Preston Smith	4	1
Kenny Clark	3	2
Jaire Alexander	2	2
Dean Lowry	3	1
Tyler Lancaster	1	1
Elgton Jenkins	2	0
Tedarrell Slaton	2	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	14/20	148	5	0	0	16.5
Taysom Hill	1/1	3	0	0	0	0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	20	83	4.2	-1.8
Tony Jones	11	50	4.5	0.4
Jameis Winston	6	37	6.2	4.7
Taysom Hill	2	1	0.5	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Deonte Harty	2	2	72	1	10%	6.5
Juwan Johnson	3	3	21	2	15%	8.0
Adam Trautman	3	6	18	0	30%	-1.8
Marquez Callaway	1	2	14	0	10%	0.4
Chris Hogan	1	1	10	1	5%	3.2
Alvin Kamara	3	4	8	1	20%	0.4
Ty Montgomery	1	1	5	0	5%	0.3
Tony Jones	1	1	3	0	5%	0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Zack Baun	5	0	0.0	0	0
J.T. Gray	3	1	0.0	0	0
Demario Davis	2	2	0.0	0	0
Marshon Lattimore	2	1	0.0	0	1
Marcus Davenport	2	1	1.0	0	0
Albert Huggins	2	1	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	3	0	0.0	0	0
Paulson Adebo	2	1	0.0	1	1
Jeff Heath	2	1	0.0	0	0
Tanoh Kpassagnon	2	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -4
Closing total: 49
GB moneyline: -181
NO moneyline: +162

Packers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49; the game landed 41 — under by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 86°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: GB 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Matt LaFleur vs Sean Payton