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Jacksonville Jaguars 21 at Houston Texans 37. Final.
Jaguars -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 1
Houston Texans 37, Jaguars 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 8:18, 3rd and 9, on Brandin Cooks — 17.9 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:18 · 3rd and 9
Brandin Cooks
Texans
(8:18) (Shotgun) 5-Ty.Taylor pass deep left to 13-B.Cooks to JAX 2 for 40 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
O 45.5 ✓
Dome
Jaguars closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Houston Texans 37–21. Biggest swing: Q1 8:18, Texans +17.9% win probability on one snap.
17.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Josh LamboTexansQ1 4:44(4:44) 4-J.Lambo 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
11.6pts
Vernon HargreavesTexansQ2 2:32(2:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 17-D.Chark INTERCEPTED by 26-V.Hargreaves at JAX 25. 26-V.Hargreaves pushed ob at JAX 7 for 18 yards (25-J.Robinson).
10.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 3 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Texans won this one — 12 of 21 on third down, against Jaguars at 3 of 11 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.47 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.07 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Texans won this one — 4 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Jaguars at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Jaguars192 of 204 plays carry both curves
(8:18) (Shotgun) 5-Ty.Taylor pass deep left to 13-B.Cooks to JAX 2 for 40 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
Swing +17.9 for TexansExpected points +4.28 for TexansThe model had Texans 17 points higher than the market did.play 23
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:18HOU +18% win prob(8:18) (Shotgun) 5-Ty.Taylor pass deep left to 13-B.Cooks to JAX 2 for 40 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
1st · 4:44JAX +12% win prob(4:44) 4-J.Lambo 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
2nd · 2:32JAX +10% win prob(2:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 17-D.Chark INTERCEPTED by 26-V.Hargreaves at JAX 25. 26-V.Hargreaves pushed ob at JAX 7 for 18 yards (25-J.Robinson).
2nd · 4:54JAX +9% win prob(4:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 19-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 20-Ju.Reid at HOU 31. 20-Ju.Reid to JAX 48 for 21 yards (25-J.Robinson).
2nd · 12:25HOU +7% win prob(12:25) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 84-C.Manhertz for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:39HOU +7% win prob(6:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-M.Jones to HOU 42 for 33 yards (20-Ju.Reid).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mark Ingram's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 6:43 left in the 1st put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:43Mark Ingram·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Texans ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Jaguars: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.16Texans: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.07Jaguars: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.47Texans: +0.47 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Jaguars: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.15Texans: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 67 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Texans’s 74 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, Texans 6.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +2.7 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Texans7.7%
inside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 32.4 points below their season mean of 32.4% and 2.0 times their own 16.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
68Andrew NorwellG · Every snap100%74 snaps
60A.J. CannG · Every snap100%74 snaps
75Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%74 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Every snap100%74 snaps
65Brandon LinderG · Every snap100%74 snaps
16Trevor LawrenceQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
11Marvin JonesWR · Full-time90%67 snaps
17D.J. CharkWR · Full-time85%63 snaps
80James O'ShaughnessyTE · Full-time80%59 snaps
10Laviska ShenaultWR · Heavy rotation70%52 snaps
25James RobinsonRB · Heavy rotation63%47 snaps
84Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational35%26 snaps
24Carlos HydeRB · Rotational34%25 snaps
39Jamal AgnewWR · Situational13%10 snaps
19Devin SmithWR · Situational12%9 snaps
12Tyron JohnsonWR · Situational12%9 snaps
89Luke FarrellTE · Situational5%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Tre HerndonCBAdam GotsisDEJay TufeleDTJordan SmithLBDaniel ThomasSSWalker LittleTJacob HollisterTE
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Ty.Taylor pass+18% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(8:18) (Shotgun) 5-Ty.Taylor pass deep left to 13-B.Cooks to JAX 2 for 40 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
Q1 8:18 · Texans · 3rd & 9 at JAX 42 · gained 40 · +4.28 EP · +17.5% win probability
190 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 204 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 204 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 85 yards from the JAX 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
204 of 204 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
204
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
39%
Yards
844
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.0786%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.5864%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.2333%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR17-0.1024%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.3138%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.0175%
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
204 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
204 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter48 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 31
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Jaguars 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Jaguars0Texans6
Jaguars0Texans7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Jaguars 1
No good7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 37
Jaguars0Texans13
Jaguars0Texans14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Jaguars 7
The period ended8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 36
2nd quarter58 plays
Jaguars6Texans14
Jaguars7Texans14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 29 to the Texans 22
Jaguars7Texans17
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Jaguars 22
Intercepted8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 47
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 48 to the Jaguars 40
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jaguars 7 to the Jaguars 13
Jaguars7Texans20
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 7 to the Jaguars 2
Punt5 plays
Jaguars7Texans26
Jaguars7Texans27
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Jaguars 8
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 30
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 28 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 11 to the Jaguars 19
Jaguars7Texans33
Jaguars7Texans34
Touchdown11 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Jaguars 5
Jaguars13Texans34
Jaguars14Texans34
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 41
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 22 to the Texans 28
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter57 plays
Punt2 plays
Jaguars14Texans37
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Jaguars 7
Intercepted10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 37
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Texans 33
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 24 to the Jaguars 39
Punt10 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 39
Jaguars20Texans37
Jaguars21Texans37
Touchdown14 plays, from the Jaguars 15 to the Texans 4
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Jaguars -3.5
Closing total
45.5
Jaguars moneyline
-172
Texans moneyline
+154
Jaguars closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 58 — over by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Jaguars 7 days · Texans 7 days
Coaches
Urban Meyer vs David Culley
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 13:06
HOU +6% win prob
(13:06) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy. Penalty on JAX, Illegal Formation, declined. PENALTY on HOU-97-M.Collins, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 40 - No Play.
2nd · 0:25HOU +6% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 5-Ty.Taylor pass deep middle to 13-B.Cooks to JAX 8 for 52 yards (26-S.Griffin).
