2021 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 12, 2021 · NRG Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston TexansWinner

JAX -3.5 upsetO 45.5 ✓DomeJaguars closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Houston Texans 37–21. Biggest swing: Q1 8:18, HOU +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 8:18JAX — HOU HOU ball · 3rd & 9JAX 64%

(8:18) (Shotgun) 5-Ty.Taylor pass deep left to 13-B.Cooks to JAX 2 for 40 yards (2-R.Jenkins).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 8:18HOU +18% win prob(8:18) (Shotgun) 5-Ty.Taylor pass deep left to 13-B.Cooks to JAX 2 for 40 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
Q1 · 4:44JAX +12% win prob(4:44) 4-J.Lambo 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q2 · 2:32JAX +10% win prob(2:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 17-D.Chark INTERCEPTED by 26-V.Hargreaves at JAX 25. 26-V.Hargreaves pushed ob at JAX 7 for 18 yards (25-J.Robinson).
Q2 · 4:54JAX +9% win prob(4:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 19-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 20-Ju.Reid at HOU 31. 20-Ju.Reid to JAX 48 for 21 yards (25-J.Robinson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Texans
Offensive plays	67	74
Total yards	397	450 (edge)
Yards per play	5.9	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.04	0.16 (edge)
Success rate	46% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	78%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.47 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.15
Third downs	3/11	12/21 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

28/51, 332 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT

-3.8 expected points added · -12.0% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Tyrod TaylorQB

21/33, 291 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.1 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Mark IngramRB

26 att, 85 yds, 1 TD

-4.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Carlos HydeRB

9 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Brandin CooksWR

5/7 for 132 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

D.J. CharkWR

3/12 for 86 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · -2.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 25	5	6	0:49	Punt
2	JAX	JAX 21	4	13	0:30	Punt
3	HOU	HOU 16	15	84	7:02	Touchdown
4	JAX	JAX 25	6	48	2:00	Turnover on downs
5	HOU	HOU 45	6	55	2:14	Touchdown
6	JAX	JAX 25	13	80	5:05	Touchdown
7	HOU	HOU 24	10	59	4:13	Turnover on downs
8	JAX	JAX 25	7	35	3:25	Interception
9	HOU	JAX 48	4	8	1:21	Punt
10	JAX	JAX 7	2	6	1:04	Interception
11	HOU	JAX 7	5	7	1:18	Turnover on downs
12	JAX	JAX 25	5	0	0:22	Punt
13	HOU	HOU 31	5	69	0:29	Touchdown
14	JAX	JAX 25	2	0	0:08	End of half
15	JAX	JAX 25	5	5	1:21	Punt
16	HOU	HOU 28	7	22	3:52	Punt
17	JAX	JAX 11	4	8	1:39	Punt
18	HOU	HOU 32	10	68	4:44	Touchdown
19	JAX	JAX 25	6	60	1:36	Touchdown
20	HOU	HOU 22	5	6	1:33	Punt
21	JAX	JAX 21	4	7	0:26	Punt
22	HOU	HOU 31	7	38	2:53	Turnover on downs
23	JAX	JAX 25	9	38	2:17	Interception
24	HOU	HOU 24	4	9	1:58	Punt
25	JAX	JAX 24	6	7	2:18	Punt
26	HOU	HOU 20	7	19	2:33	Punt
27	JAX	JAX 15	13	90	2:45	Touchdown
28	HOU	HOU 25	2	0	0:05	End of game

0 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 90 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	28/51	332	3	3	1	-3.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Carlos Hyde	9	44	4.9	0.1
James Robinson	5	25	5.0	0.2
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	9	9.0	0.7
Trevor Lawrence	1	-2	-2.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Chark	3	12	86	1	24%	-2.8
Marvin Jones	5	9	77	1	18%	5.0
Laviska Shenault Jr.	7	10	50	0	20%	-2.9
James O'Shaughnessy	6	8	48	0	16%	0.6
James Robinson	3	6	29	0	12%	0.3
Chris Manhertz	1	1	22	1	2%	2.9
Carlos Hyde	2	2	14	0	4%	-0.2
Tyron Johnson	1	1	6	0	2%	0.3
Devin Smith	0	1	0	0	2%	-4.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Myles Jack	5	3	0.0	0
Damien Wilson	1	6	0.0	0
Malcom Brown	3	3	0.0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	5	0	0.0	1
Andrew Wingard	3	2	0.0	0
Josh Hines-Allen	3	2	1.0	0
Roy Robertson-Harris	2	3	0.0	0
Jihad Ward	2	2	0.0	0
Shaquill Griffin	3	1	0.0	1
C.J. Henderson	3	1	0.0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyrod Taylor	21/33	291	2	0	1	14.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mark Ingram	26	85	3.3	1	-4.8
Tyrod Taylor	4	40	10.0	0	3.2
Phillip Lindsay	8	25	3.1	1	-1.4
David Johnson	3	10	3.3	0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	5	7	132	0	22%	8.2
Pharaoh Brown	4	5	67	0	16%	4.7
Danny Amendola	5	5	34	1	16%	3.8
Chris Conley	2	2	27	0	6%	1.7
David Johnson	3	4	18	1	13%	2.3
Nico Collins	1	3	7	0	9%	-1.1
Rex Burkhead	1	2	6	0	6%	-0.1
Mark Ingram	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.6
Phillip Lindsay	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.3
Jordan Akins	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Zach Cunningham	3	4	0.0	0	1
Desmond King	4	3	0.0	0	0
Eric Murray	4	2	0.0	0	0
Terrance Mitchell	4	1	0.0	0	0
Justin Reid	2	2	0.0	1	1
Christian Kirksey	3	1	0.0	1	2
Vernon Hargreaves	0	3	0.0	1	2
Whitney Mercilus	2	1	1.0	0	0
Tremon Smith	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kamu Grugier-Hill	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: JAX -3.5
Closing total: 45.5
JAX moneyline: -172
HOU moneyline: +154

Jaguars closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 58 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: JAX 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Urban Meyer vs David Culley

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.