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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 12, 2021 · FedExField
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 1
It turned at Q4 12:16, 1st and 10, on Antonio Gibson — 29.2 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:16 · 1st and 10
Antonio Gibson
Chargers
(12:16) 71-W.Schweitzer reported in as eligible. 24-A.Gibson right end to WAS 4 for no gain (44-K.White; 26-A.Samuel). FUMBLES (44-K.White), RECOVERED by LAC-52-K.Fackrell at WAS 3.
Los Angeles Chargers 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 12:16, Chargers +29.2% win probability on one snap.
29.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Chargers won this one — 14 of 18 on third down, against Commanders at 3 of 10 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chargers won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Commanders at 2 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.10 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
(12:16) 71-W.Schweitzer reported in as eligible. 24-A.Gibson right end to WAS 4 for no gain (44-K.White; 26-A.Samuel). FUMBLES (44-K.White), RECOVERED by LAC-52-K.Fackrell at WAS 3.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mike Williams's 3-yard touchdown catch with 11:25 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Mike Williams3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin HerbertLead never changed again+720–168 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categoryCommanders
Chargers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 75 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Commanders’s 49 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 7, Commanders 2.
Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's sack or hit rate, 26.9%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 3.8 points clear of the next team along.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers9.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 3.9 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 75 snaps
Commanders-11.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.5 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 49 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 88%
Tendencies room →Chargers57.9%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 61.5%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 57 early downs
Commanders50.0%right on their number · −4.3 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 38 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32% to 131%
Fourth Down room →Chargers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 54.3%.
Commanders33.3%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±25.4 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 34%
Tendencies room →Chargers26.9%off script — got home · +13.0 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+2.01× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Commanders10.2%inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
LAC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.9%, 13.0 points above their season mean of 13.9% and 2.0 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
31/47, 337 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
10.4 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
11/15, 122 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
4.8 expected points added · +18.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Logan Thomas banked 6.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike WilliamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.2 | +0.4 | 75% | 84% | 26% | 32% | 8/12, 82 yd, 1 TD |
| Keenan AllenWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.0 | −2.5 | 83% | 82% | 28% | 31% | 9/13, 100 yd |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 13.4 | −12.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 31/47, 337 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, -1 yd |
| Logan ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.0 | +6.0 | 100% | 85% | 15% | 23% | 3/3, 30 yd, 1 TD |
| Antonio GibsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.8 | −4.5 | 65% | 46% | 25% | 3% | 20 car, 90 yd · 3/5, 18 yd |
| Austin EkelerRB · Committee Back | 11.7 | +0.1 | 58% | 61% | 0% | — | 15 car, 57 yd, 1 TD |
| Jared CookTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | −5.4 | 58% | 69% | 17% | 18% | 5/8, 56 yd |
| Taylor HeinickeQB · Starter QB | 10.6 | +2.1 | 71% | — | 0% | — | 11/15, 122 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 17 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Featured Receiver | 10.2 | +3.9 | 100% | 85% | 20% | 36% | 4/4, 62 yd |
| Jalen GuytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.9 | −1.8 | 65% | 71% | 11% | 6% | 3/5, 49 yd |
| K.J. HillWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | +1.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Adam HumphriesWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | 0.0 | 60% | 50% | 10% | 3% | 2/2, 10 yd |
| Larry RountreeRB | 2.7 | −1.3 | 27% | 24% | 0% | — | 8 car, 27 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +0.6 | 17% | 16% | 2% | 5% | 1/1, 17 yd |
| Cam SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +1.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Justin JacksonRB | 1.7 | −0.3 | 14% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 1 car, 5 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Stephen AndersonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −3.1 | 25% | 14% | 4% | 4% | 1/2, 1 yd |
| Jaret PattersonRB | 0.9 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| J.D. McKissicRB | 0.8 | −0.6 | 36% | 42% | 5% | 0% | 1 car, 8 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 0.8 | −5.3 | 93% | 77% | 20% | 33% | 1/4, -2 yd |
| Ryan FitzpatrickQB | 0.7 | −2.0 | 29% | — | 0% | — | 3/6, 13 yd · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Gabe NabersRB | 0.2 | −0.1 | 11% | 8% | 0% | — | 1 car, 2 yd |
| Donald ParhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.7 | 51% | 41% | 2% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:16) 71-W.Schweitzer reported in as eligible. 24-A.Gibson right end to WAS 4 for no gain (44-K.White; 26-A.Samuel). FUMBLES (44-K.White), RECOVERED by LAC-52-K.Fackrell at WAS 3.
Q4 12:16 · Commanders · 1st & 10 at WAS 4 · lost 1 · -6.02 EP · −29.9% win probability
163 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 176 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 81 yards from the WAS 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chargers6
Commanders0Chargers7Commanders0Chargers7Commanders3Chargers7Commanders6Chargers10Commanders6Chargers13Commanders6Chargers13Commanders9Chargers13Commanders15Chargers13Commanders16Chargers19Commanders16Chargers20Commanders16Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Commanders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 31/47 | 337 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +10.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 1 | −0.7 |
| Larry Rountree | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 9 | 13 | 100 | 0 | 28% | +8.6 |
| Mike Williams | 8 | 12 | 82 | 1 | 26% | +6.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Murray | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derwin James | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyzir White | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Covington |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 11/15 | 122 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4.8 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3/6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −4.3 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_01_LAC_WAS
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Commanders closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 36 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
| Gabe Nabers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 | −4.5 |
| Jared Cook | 5 | 8 | 56 | 0 | 17% | +4.2 |
| Jalen Guyton | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 11% | +2.2 |
| K.J. Hill | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 7% | +1.8 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 2% | +1.3 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2% | −1.1 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −4.9 |
| Donald Parham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −1.0 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Asante Samuel | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Bosa | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nasir Adderley | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alohi Gilman | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 20 | 90 | 4.5 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Jaret Patterson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | +0.1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 | 20% | +4.9 |
| Logan Thomas | 3 | 3 | 30 | 1 | 15% | +2.9 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 25% | −0.5 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 5% | +1.3 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 10% | −0.6 |
| J.D. McKissic | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 20% | −5.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby McCain | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Holcomb | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jon Bostic | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Fuller | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Payne | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montez Sweat | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin St-Juste | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Ioannidis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jonathan Allen | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
