2021 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 12, 2021 · FedExField

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

Washington Commanders

WAS -2.5 upsetU 45.5 ✓Commanders closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Los Angeles Chargers 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 12:16, LAC +29% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 12:16LAC — WAS WAS ball · 1st & 10WAS 71%

(12:16) 71-W.Schweitzer reported in as eligible. 24-A.Gibson right end to WAS 4 for no gain (44-K.White; 26-A.Samuel). FUMBLES (44-K.White), RECOVERED by LAC-52-K.Fackrell at WAS 3.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 12:16LAC +29% win prob(12:16) 71-W.Schweitzer reported in as eligible. 24-A.Gibson right end to WAS 4 for no gain (44-K.White; 26-A.Samuel). FUMBLES (44-K.White), RECOVERED by LAC-52-K.Fackrell at WAS 3.
Q4 · 12:23LAC +22% win prob(12:23) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right intended for 82-S.Anderson INTERCEPTED by 23-W.Jackson at WAS 4. 23-W.Jackson pushed ob at WAS 4 for no gain (82-S.Anderson).
Q3 · 6:00LAC +22% win prob(6:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at WAS 15 for -8 yards (90-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (90-M.Sweat) [90-M.Sweat], ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 · 11:41WAS +14% win prob(11:41) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin ran ob at LAC 11 for 34 yards. Penalty on LAC-43-M.Davis, Illegal Contact, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Commanders
Offensive plays	75	49
Total yards	427 (edge)	259
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.11 (edge)	-0.10
Success rate	48% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	65%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.21 (edge)	-0.05
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	14/18 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

31/47, 337 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

10.4 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

11/15, 122 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.8 expected points added · +18.0% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Antonio GibsonRB

20 att, 90 yds, 0 TD

-3.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

15 att, 57 yds, 1 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

9/13 for 100 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Mike WilliamsWR

8/12 for 82 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 25	12	70	5:46	Touchdown
2	WAS	WAS 26	5	6	1:39	Punt
3	LAC	LAC 12	4	3	1:31	Punt
4	WAS	LAC 48	6	36	3:07	Turnover on downs
5	LAC	LAC 17	6	15	1:32	Punt
6	WAS	WAS 29	7	11	2:49	Turnover on downs
7	LAC	LAC 9	11	71	4:30	Turnover on downs
8	WAS	WAS 32	5	0	0:29	Punt
9	LAC	LAC 26	18	73	7:52	Turnover on downs
10	WAS	WAS 25	6	30	0:45	Turnover on downs
11	WAS	WAS 19	10	80	3:40	Touchdown
12	LAC	LAC 25	13	68	5:25	Turnover on downs
13	WAS	WAS 20	12	62	6:40	Turnover on downs
14	LAC	LAC 41	5	39	1:59	Interception
15	WAS	WAS 4	1	-1	0:10	Fumble
16	LAC	WAS 3	4	3	0:45	Touchdown
17	WAS	WAS 25	10	35	4:38	Punt
18	LAC	LAC 18	15	85	6:43	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a end of game.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	31/47	337	1	1	2	10.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Austin Ekeler	15	57	3.8	1	-0.7
Larry Rountree	8	27	3.4	0	-1.5
Justin Jackson	1	5	5.0	0	-0.1
Gabe Nabers	1	2	2.0	0	0.3
Justin Herbert	4	-1	-0.3	0	-4.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	9	13	100	0	28%	8.6
Mike Williams	8	12	82	1	26%	6.9
Jared Cook	5	8	56	0	17%	4.2
Jalen Guyton	3	5	49	0	11%	2.2
K.J. Hill	3	3	30	0	7%	1.8
Josh Palmer	1	1	17	0	2%	1.3
Justin Jackson	1	1	2	0	2%	-1.1
Stephen Anderson	1	2	1	0	4%	-4.9
Donald Parham	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kenneth Murray	5	4	0.0	0
Derwin James	7	1	0.0	1
Kyzir White	2	2	0.0	0
Christian Covington	3	1	0.0	0
Asante Samuel	3	1	0.0	0
Joey Bosa	3	1	1.0	0
Nasir Adderley	3	0	0.0	0
Alohi Gilman	1	2	0.0	0
Justin Jackson	1	1	0.0	0
Stephen Anderson	1	1	0.0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	11/15	122	1	0	0	4.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick	3/6	13	0	0	1	-4.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Antonio Gibson	20	90	4.5	-3.7
Taylor Heinicke	3	17	5.7	-0.5
Jaret Patterson	2	9	4.5	0.1
J.D. McKissic	1	8	8.0	-0.1
Ryan Fitzpatrick	1	2	2.0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	4	4	62	0	20%	4.9
Logan Thomas	3	3	30	1	15%	2.9
Antonio Gibson	3	5	18	0	25%	-0.5
Cam Sims	1	1	17	0	5%	1.3
Adam Humphries	2	2	10	0	10%	-0.6
J.D. McKissic	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.5
Dyami Brown	1	4	-2	0	20%	-5.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Bobby McCain	7	3	0.0	0	0
Cole Holcomb	6	4	0.0	0	0
Jon Bostic	4	2	0.0	0	0
Kendall Fuller	4	1	0.0	0	0
Daron Payne	2	2	0.0	0	0
Montez Sweat	2	2	1.0	0	0
Benjamin St-Juste	4	0	0.0	0	0
Matt Ioannidis	2	1	0.0	0	0
William Jackson	3	0	0.0	1	2
Jonathan Allen	1	2	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -2.5
Closing total: 45.5
LAC moneyline: +117
WAS moneyline: -129

Commanders closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 36 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 81°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: LAC 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Brandon Staley vs Ron Rivera