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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 12, 2021 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 1
It turned at Q4 3:35, 1st and 10, on Damien Harris — 29.5 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:35 · 1st and 10
Damien Harris
Dolphins
(3:35) 37-D.Harris right tackle to MIA 9 for 2 yards (25-X.Howard, 55-J.Baker). FUMBLES (25-X.Howard), RECOVERED by MIA-25-X.Howard at MIA 9. NE 37-Harris 4th career 100-yard game.
Miami Dolphins 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:35, Dolphins +29.5% win probability on one snap.
29.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Patriots at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 11 of 16 on third down, against Dolphins at 4 of 10 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — 1 giveaway, against Patriots at 2 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.01 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.17 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
(3:35) 37-D.Harris right tackle to MIA 9 for 2 yards (25-X.Howard, 55-J.Baker). FUMBLES (25-X.Howard), RECOVERED by MIA-25-X.Howard at MIA 9. NE 37-Harris 4th career 100-yard game.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jaylen Waddle's 3-yard touchdown catch with 10:58 left in the 3rd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Jaylen Waddle3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+717–107 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Dolphinscategory by categoryPatriots
Patriots ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 49 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Patriots’s 70 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 2, Patriots 4.
Patriots outgained Dolphins 393-261 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49 pts to 37 pts
Over Expected room →Dolphins1.1 ptsright on their number · −1.2 vs their 2.3 pts, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 49 snaps
Patriots-2.1 ptsright on their number · +4.1 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 96%
Tendencies room →Dolphins56.4%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 58.1%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 39 early downs
Patriots51.9%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±17.8 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 54 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -51% to 129%
Fourth Down room →Dolphins—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 40.3%.
Patriots—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 30.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 39%
Tendencies room →Dolphins22.5%right on their number · +3.8 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Patriots13.8%right on their number · −0.1 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was MIA's sack or hit rate, 22.5% against a season mean of 18.7% — and MIA swings 7.8 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
29/39, 281 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
12.5 expected points added · +7.6% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
16/27, 202 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
1.3 expected points added · -4.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Nelson Agholor banked 6.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson AgholorWR · Featured Receiver | 18.2 | +6.9 | 85% | 95% | 18% | 30% | 5/7, 72 yd, 1 TD |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 16.2 | +2.3 | 96% | — | 0% | — | 16/27, 202 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 1 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Featured Receiver | 16.1 | +5.8 | 80% | 93% | 19% | 20% | 4/5, 61 yd, 1 TD |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 15.2 | +2.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/39, 281 yd, 1 TD |
| Myles GaskinRB · Committee Back | 12.6 | +1.1 | 54% | 62% | 19% | 2% | 9 car, 49 yd · 5/5, 27 yd |
| DeVante ParkerWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.1 | +0.7 | 83% | 97% | 26% | 33% | 4/7, 81 yd |
| James WhiteRB · Receiving Back | 12.1 | +0.7 | 37% | 55% | 18% | 12% | 4 car, 12 yd · 6/7, 49 yd |
| Damien HarrisRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.7 | −3.9 | 53% | 35% | 8% | 2% | 23 car, 100 yd · 2/3, 17 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Featured Receiver | 10.4 | −1.7 | 99% | 100% | 24% | 26% | 6/9, 44 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.8 | +1.6 | 73% | 60% | 13% | 8% | 1 car, 6 yd · 5/5, 42 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | +2.0 | 72% | 68% | 8% | 10% | 3/3, 31 yd |
| Salvon AhmedRB · Receiving Back | 4.8 | −1.0 | 20% | 24% | 11% | 12% | 3 car, 4 yd · 2/3, 24 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −1.4 | 44% | 60% | 8% | 7% | 1/3, 17 yd |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −0.5 | 70% | 52% | 7% | 3% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Malcolm BrownRB | 1.6 | −0.9 | 30% | 17% | 0% | — | 5 car, 16 yd |
| Brandon BoldenRB | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jacoby BrissettQB | 0.4 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 0.1 | −1.9 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.4 | 39% | 59% | 11% | 18% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Albert WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.5 | 41% | 59% | 7% | 12% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jakeem GrantWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:35) 37-D.Harris right tackle to MIA 9 for 2 yards (25-X.Howard, 55-J.Baker). FUMBLES (25-X.Howard), RECOVERED by MIA-25-X.Howard at MIA 9. NE 37-Harris 4th career 100-yard game.
Q4 3:35 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at MIA 11 · gained 2 · -4.99 EP · −35.6% win probability
152 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 80 yards from the MIA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Dolphins6
Patriots0Dolphins7Patriots0Dolphins7Patriots3Dolphins7Patriots9Dolphins7Patriots10Dolphins10Patriots10Dolphins16Patriots10Dolphins17Patriots10Dolphins17Patriots13Dolphins17Patriots16Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 16/27 | 202 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Malcolm Brown | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 7 | 81 | 0 | 26% | +5.3 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 5 | 61 | 1 | 19% | +2.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Baker | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Rowe | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Eguavoen | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 29/39 | 281 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +12.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_01_MIA_NE
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 33 — under by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Jacoby Brissett | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 | +1.2 |
| Myles Gaskin | 5 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 19% | +1.1 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 11% | +1.1 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | +0.3 |
| Mike Gesicki | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11% | −2.3 |
| Albert Wilson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −4.1 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Nik Needham | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason McCourty | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brennan Scarlett | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Xavien Howard | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Sieler | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 |
| 100 |
| 4.3 |
| 0 |
| −5.0 |
| James White | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 5 | 7 | 72 | 1 | 18% | +5.2 |
| James White | 6 | 7 | 49 | 0 | 18% | +2.6 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 9 | 44 | 0 | 24% | +2.6 |
| Jonnu Smith | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 13% | +1.3 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 8% | +3.6 |
| Damien Harris | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 8% | +0.6 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 8% | −1.9 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | −4.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin McCourty | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lawrence Guy | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dont'a Hightower | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Judon | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Godchaux | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Mills | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.C. Jackson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
