2021 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 12, 2021 · Gillette Stadium

Miami DolphinsWinner

New England Patriots

NE -3.5 upsetU 43.5 ✓15 mph windPatriots closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Miami Dolphins 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:35, MIA +30% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 3:35MIA — NE NE ball · 1st & 10NE 73%

(3:35) 37-D.Harris right tackle to MIA 9 for 2 yards (25-X.Howard, 55-J.Baker). FUMBLES (25-X.Howard), RECOVERED by MIA-25-X.Howard at MIA 9. NE 37-Harris 4th career 100-yard game.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 3:35MIA +30% win prob(3:35) 37-D.Harris right tackle to MIA 9 for 2 yards (25-X.Howard, 55-J.Baker). FUMBLES (25-X.Howard), RECOVERED by MIA-25-X.Howard at MIA 9. NE 37-Harris 4th career 100-yard game.
Q1 · 3:40MIA +14% win prob(3:40) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson to NE 48 for 9 yards (21-E.Rowe). FUMBLES (21-E.Rowe), RECOVERED by MIA-92-Z.Sieler at NE 48. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
Q4 · 8:17MIA +13% win prob(8:17) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 2-A.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Jones [9-M.Judon] at 50. 31-J.Jones to 50 for no gain (88-M.Gesicki).
Q4 · 6:51NE +12% win prob(6:51) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 16-J.Meyers to MIA 39 for 7 yards (25-X.Howard) [91-E.Ogbah].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Patriots
Offensive plays	49	70
Total yards	261	393 (edge)
Yards per play	5.3	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.03 (edge)	0.03
Success rate	47%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	59%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05	0.17 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.17
Third downs	4/10	11/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Patriots outgained Dolphins 393–261 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

29/39, 281 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

12.5 expected points added · +7.6% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

16/27, 202 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.3 expected points added · -4.6% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

23 att, 100 yds, 0 TD

-5.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Myles GaskinRB

9 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

DeVante ParkerWR

4/7 for 81 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Nelson AgholorWR

5/7 for 72 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	9	38	4:26	Punt
2	MIA	MIA 20	11	80	5:05	Touchdown
3	NE	NE 26	5	22	2:01	Fumble
4	MIA	NE 48	4	-11	1:15	Punt
5	NE	NE 26	14	73	6:56	Turnover on downs
6	MIA	MIA 25	7	23	1:06	Punt
7	NE	NE 20	5	16	1:30	Punt
8	MIA	MIA 20	4	5	1:35	Punt
9	NE	NE 37	8	54	3:36	Touchdown
10	MIA	MIA 25	9	45	2:30	Turnover on downs
11	MIA	MIA 25	11	75	4:09	Touchdown
12	NE	NE 9	15	77	8:01	Turnover on downs
13	MIA	MIA 25	5	-5	1:37	Punt
14	NE	NE 28	14	72	5:37	Turnover on downs
15	MIA	MIA 25	5	23	2:29	Interception
16	NE	50	9	41	4:36	Fumble
17	MIA	MIA 9	8	26	3:31	End of game

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 80 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	16/27	202	1	1	2	1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Myles Gaskin	9	49	5.4	0	0.7
Malcolm Brown	5	16	3.2	0	0.0
Salvon Ahmed	3	4	1.3	0	-1.6
Jacoby Brissett	2	4	2.0	0	-0.0
Tua Tagovailoa	4	1	0.3	1	1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVante Parker	4	7	81	0	26%	5.3
Jaylen Waddle	4	5	61	1	19%	2.7
Myles Gaskin	5	5	27	0	19%	1.1
Salvon Ahmed	2	3	24	0	11%	1.1
Durham Smythe	1	2	9	0	7%	0.3
Mike Gesicki	0	3	0	0	11%	-2.3
Albert Wilson	0	2	0	0	7%	-4.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jerome Baker	6	3	0
Eric Rowe	6	3	0
Sam Eguavoen	1	4	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	2	3	0
Nik Needham	4	1	0
Jason McCourty	3	2	1
Brennan Scarlett	1	3	1
Xavien Howard	3	1	0
Byron Jones	3	1	1
Zach Sieler	2	1	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	29/39	281	1	0	1	12.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Damien Harris	23	100	4.3	-5.0
James White	4	12	3.0	-0.5
Jonnu Smith	1	6	6.0	0.5
Brandon Bolden	1	5	5.0	0.2
Rhamondre Stevenson	1	2	2.0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nelson Agholor	5	7	72	1	18%	5.2
James White	6	7	49	0	18%	2.6
Jakobi Meyers	6	9	44	0	24%	2.6
Jonnu Smith	5	5	42	0	13%	1.3
Hunter Henry	3	3	31	0	8%	3.6
Damien Harris	2	3	17	0	8%	0.6
Kendrick Bourne	1	3	17	0	8%	-1.9
Rhamondre Stevenson	1	1	9	0	3%	-4.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Devin McCourty	4	3	0.0	0
Kyle Dugger	3	1	0.0	0
Lawrence Guy	2	2	0.0	0
Dont'a Hightower	2	2	0.0	0
Matt Judon	2	1	0.0	0
Davon Godchaux	2	1	0.0	0
Kyle Van Noy	2	1	1.0	1
Jalen Mills	2	0	0.0	1
Ja'Whaun Bentley	2	0	0.0	0
J.C. Jackson	2	0	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -3.5
Closing total: 43.5
MIA moneyline: +155
NE moneyline: -173

Patriots closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 33 — under by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 81°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: MIA 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Brian Flores vs Bill Belichick

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.