2021 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 12, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium

Minnesota Vikings

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

MIN -3 upsetO 47 ✓15 mph windVikings closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cincinnati Bengals 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 0:39, CIN +63% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 0:39MIN — CIN CIN ball · 4th & 1MIN 90%

(:39) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 87-C.Uzomah pushed ob at MIN 20 for 32 yards (23-X.Woods).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 0:39CIN +63% win prob(:39) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 87-C.Uzomah pushed ob at MIN 20 for 32 yards (23-X.Woods).
OT · 3:54CIN +48% win prob(3:54) 10-K.Huber punts 61 yards to MIN 25, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 37 for 12 yards (34-S.Perine).
OT · 5:31CIN +47% win prob(5:31) 3-J.Berry punts 63 yards to CIN 10, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.
OT · 6:39CIN +32% win prob(6:39) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to MIN 21, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Bengals
Offensive plays	74	67
Total yards	403 (edge)	366
Yards per play	5.4	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.05 (edge)	-0.03
Success rate	42% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	70%	46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.21 (edge)	0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.35	-0.17 (edge)
Third downs	6/16 (edge)	3/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	7
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Vikings outgained Bengals 403–366 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

36/49, 351 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.9 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

20/27, 261 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

4.2 expected points added · +11.1% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

29 att, 127 yds, 1 TD

-6.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

20 att, 61 yds, 1 TD

-6.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

5/7 for 101 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 9.0 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Adam ThielenWR

9/10 for 92 yds, 2 TD

21% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 25	8	39	4:07	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 30	6	11	2:32	Punt
3	MIN	MIN 20	4	4	1:21	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 45	4	-2	1:59	Punt
5	MIN	MIN 10	6	-8	3:30	Punt
6	CIN	CIN 49	4	5	1:31	Punt
7	MIN	MIN 9	15	101	8:21	Touchdown
8	CIN	CIN 25	11	49	4:52	Touchdown
9	MIN	MIN 25	5	11	0:36	Punt
10	CIN	CIN 25	5	75	0:36	Touchdown
11	MIN	MIN 25	6	29	0:35	Punt
12	CIN	CIN 25	13	75	5:45	Touchdown
13	MIN	MIN 16	9	40	3:44	Punt
14	CIN	CIN 21	4	9	2:16	Turnover on downs
15	MIN	CIN 30	5	30	0:51	Touchdown
16	CIN	CIN 25	8	40	3:11	Turnover on downs
17	MIN	MIN 25	12	70	4:50	Touchdown
18	CIN	CIN 10	6	15	2:05	Punt
19	MIN	MIN 32	4	2	2:26	Punt
20	CIN	CIN 25	6	28	3:04	Punt
21	MIN	MIN 5	9	60	1:48	Turnover on downs
22	CIN	CIN 25	7	11	3:28	Punt
23	MIN	MIN 21	4	6	1:08	Punt
24	CIN	CIN 10	4	4	1:44	Punt
25	MIN	MIN 37	5	19	1:52	Fumble
26	CIN	CIN 39	7	46	1:48	Turnover on downs

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 101 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	36/49	351	2	0	3	10.9
Justin Jefferson	1/1	11	0	0	0	0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	20	61	3.0	1	-6.7
Ameer Abdullah	1	4	4.0	0	-0.6
Alexander Mattison	1	2	2.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Thielen	9	10	92	2	21%	7.4
K.J. Osborn	7	9	76	0	19%	4.5
Justin Jefferson	5	9	71	0	19%	0.5
Dalvin Cook	6	7	43	0	15%	4.5
Tyler Conklin	4	4	41	0	9%	0.6
Ameer Abdullah	2	2	15	0	4%	1.3
Dede Westbrook	1	1	11	0	2%	-0.4
C.J. Ham	2	2	9	0	4%	0.4
Alexander Mattison	1	1	4	0	2%	-0.0
Christopher Herndon	0	2	0	0	4%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eric Kendricks	6	9	0.0	0
Nick Vigil	7	2	1.0	0
Michael Pierce	3	4	2.0	0
Bashaud Breeland	5	2	0.0	0
Danielle Hunter	3	3	1.0	0
Harrison Smith	5	1	1.0	0
Xavier Woods	4	1	0.0	1
Dalvin Tomlinson	2	2	0.0	0
Stephen Weatherly	2	1	0.0	0
Kris Boyd	2	0	0.0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	20/27	261	2	0	5	4.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	29	127	4.4	1	-6.0
Samaje Perine	5	22	4.4	0	-0.9
Joe Burrow	1	2	2.0	0	1.8
Ja'Marr Chase	1	-2	-2.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	5	7	101	1	27%	9.0
Tee Higgins	4	5	58	1	19%	3.2
C.J. Uzomah	2	2	35	0	8%	2.5
Tyler Boyd	3	4	32	0	15%	0.7
Joe Mixon	4	4	23	0	15%	0.9
Samaje Perine	1	1	7	0	4%	-0.7
Mike Thomas	1	3	5	0	12%	-2.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jessie Bates	6	3	0.0	0
Vonn Bell	4	3	0.0	0
Germaine Pratt	5	2	0.0	0
Logan Wilson	4	3	0.0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	4	2	0.0	2
Mike Hilton	4	2	0.0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	4	2	1.0	0
Eli Apple	5	0	0.0	0
Ricardo Allen	1	3	0.0	0
B.J. Hill	3	0	2.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -3
Closing total: 47
MIN moneyline: -135
CIN moneyline: +122

Vikings closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47; the game landed 51 — over by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 81°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: MIN 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Zac Taylor

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.