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2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Vikings193 of 209 plays carry both curves
(:39) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 87-C.Uzomah pushed ob at MIN 20 for 32 yards (23-X.Woods).
Swing +63.4 for BengalsExpected points +3.38 for BengalsModel and market agree here.play 204
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 0:39CIN +63% win prob(:39) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 87-C.Uzomah pushed ob at MIN 20 for 32 yards (23-X.Woods).
Overtime · 3:54CIN +48% win prob(3:54) 10-K.Huber punts 61 yards to MIN 25, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 37 for 12 yards (34-S.Perine).
Overtime · 5:31CIN +47% win prob(5:31) 3-J.Berry punts 63 yards to CIN 10, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.
Overtime · 6:39CIN +32% win prob(6:39) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to MIN 21, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.
Overtime · 1:11MIN +23% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to CIN 48 for no gain (59-N.Vigil).
Overtime · 7:24MIN +23% win prob(7:24) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 36 for -6 yards (58-M.Pierce).
4th · 0:03
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Evan McPherson's 33-yard field goal with 0:05 left in overtime put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:03Greg Joseph·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaola+324–24
Overtime0:05Evan McPherson·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.HarrisLead never changed again+324–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryBengals
Vikings5–2Bengals
403Total yards366
5.4Yards per play5.5
42%Success rate39%
38%Third-down rate21%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays7
21First downs19
3Sacks taken5
1Turnovers0
The read
Vikings ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Vikings: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.03Bengals: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Vikings: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.13Bengals: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.35Vikings: −0.35 expected points added per play
−0.17Bengals: −0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 74 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Bengals’s 67 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 3, Bengals 4.
NoteVikings outgained Bengals 403-366 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CIN's pass rate over expected, −15.0 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 3.7 points clear of the next team along.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's early-down pass rate, 36.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
leaned — got home · +8.4 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+1.74× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Bengals15.4%
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.0 pts, 14.6 points below their season mean of -0.4 pts and 1.8 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
J.Burrow pass+63% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:39) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 87-C.Uzomah pushed ob at MIN 20 for 32 yards (23-X.Woods).
OT 0:39 · Bengals · 4th & 1 at CIN 48 · gained 32 · +3.38 EP · +63.4% win probability
191 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 209 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 209 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 91 yards from the MIN 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
209 of 209 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
209
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
37%
Yards
769
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.0251%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.1187%
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR16-0.2944%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.2025%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.4263%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.3443%
Vikings0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR5+0.18100%
Vikings1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5+0.51100%
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
209 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
209 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 43
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 41
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 24
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 45 to the Bengals 48
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 10 to the Vikings 21
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 49 to the Vikings 46
2nd quarter54 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Vikings6Bengals0
Vikings7Bengals0
Touchdown19 plays, from the Vikings 9 to the Bengals 5
Vikings7Bengals6
Vikings7Bengals7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Vikings 2
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Vikings7Bengals13
Vikings7Bengals14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to midfield
Punt10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 40
3rd quarter37 plays
Vikings7Bengals20
Vikings7Bengals21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Vikings 2
Punt9 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Vikings 47
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Bengals 30
Vikings13Bengals21
Vikings14Bengals21
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 24
The period ended6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Vikings 41
4th quarter47 plays
Vikings14Bengals24
Field goal3 plays, from the Vikings 40 to the Vikings 35
Vikings20Bengals24
Vikings21Bengals24
Touchdown14 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bengals 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Bengals 33
Punt5 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Vikings 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Vikings24Bengals24
Field goal10 plays, from the Vikings 5 to the Bengals 35
Overtime32 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 42
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Vikings 27
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Bengals 14
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Vikings 37 to the Bengals 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Vikings24Bengals27
Field goal9 plays, from the Bengals 39 to the Vikings 15
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
