2021 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 12, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium

New York Jets

Carolina PanthersWinner

CAR -3.5 ✓U 44.5 ✓Panthers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.

Carolina Panthers 19–14. Biggest swing: Q2 4:14, CAR +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:14NYJ — CAR CAR ball · 1st & 10CAR 75%

(4:14) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:14CAR +10% win prob(4:14) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 9:37NYJ +7% win prob(9:37) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle intended for 86-R.Griffin INTERCEPTED by 7-S.Thompson at CAR 39. 7-S.Thompson pushed ob at NYJ 32 for 29 yards (75-A.Vera-Tucker).
Q2 · 10:49CAR +7% win prob(10:49) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 84-C.Davis to NYJ 46 for 35 yards (26-D.Jackson).
Q1 · 4:44NYJ +7% win prob(4:44) 3-J.Charlton punts 18 yards to NYJ 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Panthers
Offensive plays	62	60
Total yards	254	387 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	6.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.19	-0.02 (edge)
Success rate	35%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17	0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	-0.16 (edge)
Third downs	4/13	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Sam DarnoldQB

24/35, 279 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.9 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

20/37, 258 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-7.7 expected points added · -9.9% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

21 att, 98 yds, 0 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Tevin ColemanRB

9 att, 24 yds, 0 TD

-3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Corey DavisWR

5/7 for 97 yds, 2 TD

19% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

9/9 for 89 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	2	3:36	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 26	5	26	2:26	Punt
3	NYJ	NYJ 22	4	2	1:20	Punt
4	CAR	50	5	17	3:01	Punt
5	NYJ	NYJ 15	7	10	3:27	Punt
6	CAR	CAR 15	11	81	4:40	Fumble
7	NYJ	NYJ 9	4	37	2:04	Interception
8	CAR	NYJ 32	6	29	2:00	Turnover on downs
9	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	32	3:12	Turnover on downs
10	CAR	CAR 43	2	57	0:08	Touchdown
11	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	-3	1:31	Punt
12	CAR	CAR 38	8	62	2:00	Touchdown
13	NYJ	NYJ 25	2	2	0:35	End of half
14	CAR	CAR 21	5	-1	1:40	Punt
15	NYJ	NYJ 41	6	-2	1:42	Punt
16	CAR	CAR 16	6	22	2:15	Punt
17	NYJ	NYJ 27	4	2	2:20	Punt
18	CAR	CAR 26	4	3	0:58	Punt
19	NYJ	NYJ 30	9	72	4:40	Touchdown
20	CAR	CAR 37	13	57	7:43	Turnover on downs
21	NYJ	NYJ 25	6	2	1:42	Punt
22	CAR	CAR 46	5	16	2:33	Punt
23	NYJ	NYJ 7	11	98	2:31	Touchdown
24	CAR	NYJ 45	6	18	1:56	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 98 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Zach Wilson	20/37	258	2	1	6	-7.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Tevin Coleman	9	24	2.7	-3.4
Ty Johnson	4	15	3.8	-0.7
Michael Carter	4	6	1.5	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Corey Davis	5	7	97	2	19%	10.2
Braxton Berrios	5	7	51	0	19%	1.9
Denzel Mims	1	1	40	0	3%	2.5
Tyler Kroft	3	5	26	0	14%	-0.2
Ryan Griffin	3	6	22	0	17%	-4.8
Michael Carter	1	2	14	0	6%	0.1
Ty Johnson	1	3	11	0	8%	-1.8
Jeff Smith	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Elijah Moore	1	4	-3	0	11%	-4.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Del'Shawn Phillips	3	8	0.0	0
Marcus Maye	5	3	0.0	0
Sheldrick Redwine	3	2	0.0	0
Michael Carter	2	3	0.0	1
Brandin Echols	5	0	0.0	0
C.J. Mosley	2	2	0.0	0
Adrian Colbert	2	1	0.0	0
Shaq Lawson	3	0	0.0	0
Folorunso Fatukasi	2	1	0.0	0
John Franklin-Myers	2	1	1.0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	24/35	279	1	0	1	2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	21	98	4.7	0	-2.6
D.J. Moore	1	14	14.0	0	1.3
Sam Darnold	5	-1	-0.2	1	-4.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	9	9	89	0	27%	5.5
D.J. Moore	6	8	80	0	24%	4.6
Robbie Chosen	1	3	57	1	9%	3.5
Terrace Marshall	3	6	26	0	18%	-4.3
Ian Thomas	1	2	17	0	6%	1.3
Dan Arnold	2	3	6	0	9%	-2.4
Chuba Hubbard	2	2	4	0	6%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaq Thompson	5	5	1.0	1	2
Donte Jackson	5	2	0.0	0	1
Jermaine Carter	1	3	0.0	0	0
Derrick Brown	2	2	1.0	0	1
Jeremy Chinn	3	0	0.0	0	1
Jaycee Horn	2	1	0.0	0	0
Juston Burris	2	1	0.0	0	0
Haason Reddick	2	1	1.5	0	0
Frankie Luvu	2	0	0.0	0	0
Brian Burns	1	1	1.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -3.5
Closing total: 44.5
NYJ moneyline: +164
CAR moneyline: -184

Panthers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 33 — under by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 81°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: NYJ 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Robert Saleh vs Matt Rhule