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2021 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 12, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
JetsNew York14
BY 5final margin
PanthersCarolina19
New York Jets 14 at Carolina Panthers 19. Final.
Panthers -3.5 ✓U 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 1
Carolina Panthers 19, Jets 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 4:14, 1st and 10, on Robbie Chosen — 10.3 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:14 · 1st and 10
Robbie Chosen
Panthers
(4:14) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Panthers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Carolina Panthers 19–14. Biggest swing: Q2 4:14, Panthers +10.3% win probability on one snap.
10.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Corey DavisJetsQ2 10:49(10:49) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 84-C.Davis to NYJ 46 for 35 yards (26-D.Jackson).
6.9pts
Shaq ThompsonPanthersQ2 9:37(9:37) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle intended for 86-R.Griffin INTERCEPTED by 7-S.Thompson at CAR 39. 7-S.Thompson pushed ob at NYJ 32 for 29 yards (75-A.Vera-Tucker).
7.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Panthers at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Panthers won this one — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.08 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.17 expected points per dropback.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Panthers won this one — -0.02 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.19 expected points per snap.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Jets163 of 173 plays carry both curves
(4:14) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +10.3 for PanthersExpected points +4.99 for PanthersModel and market agree here.play 68
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:14CAR +10% win prob(4:14) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:37NYJ +7% win prob(9:37) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle intended for 86-R.Griffin INTERCEPTED by 7-S.Thompson at CAR 39. 7-S.Thompson pushed ob at NYJ 32 for 29 yards (75-A.Vera-Tucker).
2nd · 10:49CAR +7% win prob(10:49) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 84-C.Davis to NYJ 46 for 35 yards (26-D.Jackson).
1st · 4:44NYJ +7% win prob(4:44) 3-J.Charlton punts 18 yards to NYJ 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.
1st · 7:50CAR +6% win prob(7:50) 6-M.Ammendola punts 50 yards to CAR 41, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 2-Dj.Moore to 50 for 9 yards (45-H.Nasirildeen; 42-T.Hennessy).
3rd · 1:35CAR +6% win prob(1:35) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right to 84-C.Davis for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-77-M.Becton was injured during the play. His return is Doubtful.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ryan Santoso's 22-yard field goal with 7:30 left in the 2nd put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd7:30Ryan Santoso·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder J.Charlton · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+30–3
2nd4:14Robbie Chosen·57-yd TD catch57-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold · kick no good, wide left+60–9
4th8:45Ryan Santoso·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Charlton · snap J.Jansen+38–19
4th2:00Corey Davis·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Zach Wilsonfrom Zach Wilson · two-point no good+614–19
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryPanthers
Jets0–6Panthers
254Total yards387
4.1Yards per play6.5
35%Success rate43%
31%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays7
16First downs18
6Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Panthers ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Jets: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.02Panthers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.17Jets: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.08Panthers: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.21Jets: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.16Panthers: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 62 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Panthers’s 60 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Jets 2, Panthers 5.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +8.9 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+1.52× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Panthers20.5%
inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 22.2%, 8.9 points above their season mean of 13.3% and 1.5 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
2Zach WilsonQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
75Alijah Vera-TuckerG · Every snap100%65 snaps
62Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%65 snaps
60Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%65 snaps
76George FantT · Every snap100%65 snaps
84Corey DavisWR · Full-time89%58 snaps
8Elijah MooreWR · Full-time86%56 snaps
77Mekhi BectonT · Heavy rotation74%48 snaps
81Tyler KroftTE · Heavy rotation66%43 snaps
10Braxton BerriosWR · Heavy rotation57%37 snaps
25Ty JohnsonRB · Heavy rotation54%35 snaps
86Ryan GriffinTE · Rotational48%31 snaps
85Trevon WescoTE · Rotational31%20 snaps
23Tevin ColemanRB · Rotational26%17 snaps
78Morgan MosesT · Rotational26%17 snaps
32Michael CarterRB · Rotational25%16 snaps
16Jeff SmithWR · Situational14%9 snaps
11Denzel MimsWR · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
Jason PinnockDBJonathan MarshallDTQuincy WilliamsOLBJosh AdamsRBLa'Mical PerineRBKeelan ColeWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Z.Wilson pass−15% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:37) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle intended for 86-R.Griffin INTERCEPTED by 7-S.Thompson at CAR 39. 7-S.Thompson pushed ob at NYJ 32 for 29 yards (75-A.Vera-Tucker).
Q2 9:37 · Jets · 2nd & 10 at CAR 49 · gained nothing · -5.84 EP · −15.4% win probability
161 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 93 yards from the NYJ 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
35%
Yards
635
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.1088%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.0166%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.1654%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.0765%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.1643%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 36
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Panthers 44
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Jets 24
Punt5 plays, from midfield to the Jets 33
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Jets 25
The period ended4 plays, from the Panthers 15 to the Panthers 19
2nd quarter47 plays
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Panthers 28 to the Jets 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Jets 9 to the Panthers 49
Jets0Panthers3
Field goal6 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Jets 3
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsIn the boxNine defenders
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Panthers 42
Jets0Panthers9
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 33
Jets0Panthers15
Jets0Panthers16
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 38 to the Jets 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Panthers 29
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 41 to midfield
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 16 to the Panthers 38
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Jets 29
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Panthers 29
Jets6Panthers16
Jets8Panthers16
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Panthers 22
The period ended4 plays, from the Panthers 37 to the Panthers 39
4th quarter46 plays
Jets8Panthers19
Field goal11 plays, from the Panthers 41 to the Jets 6
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 37
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 46 to the Jets 36
Jets14Panthers19
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jets 7 to the Panthers 8
The period ended10 plays, from the Jets 45 to the Jets 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
