2021 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 12, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

Atlanta Falcons

ATL -3.5 upsetU 49 ✓Falcons closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Philadelphia Eagles 32–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:55, PHI +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 12:55PHI — ATL PHI ball · 4th & 4PHI 52%

(12:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 12:55PHI +10% win prob(12:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right.
Q2 · 0:22ATL +7% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at ATL 4 for 12 yards (23-E.Harris).
Q2 · 1:02ATL +7% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles left end ran ob at ATL 34 for 11 yards (22-F.Moreau).
Q2 · 9:50PHI +6% win prob(9:50) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right [96-D.Barnett]. PENALTY on ATL-2-M.Ryan, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at PHI 49.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Falcons
Offensive plays	67	64
Total yards	436 (edge)	260
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	0.22 (edge)	-0.28
Success rate	60% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	57%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.38 (edge)	-0.40
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.09
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	3/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0	0

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.28.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

27/35, 264 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

12.0 expected points added · +11.6% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

21/35, 164 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-16.0 expected points added · -9.3% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Miles SandersRB

15 att, 74 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

7 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

5.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

DeVonta SmithWR

6/8 for 71 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Calvin RidleyWR

5/8 for 51 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 0.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	15	67	5:02	Turnover on downs
2	PHI	PHI 25	9	65	3:41	Touchdown
3	ATL	ATL 17	16	77	6:25	Turnover on downs
4	PHI	PHI 17	7	47	2:06	Turnover on downs
5	ATL	ATL 36	7	34	3:52	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 19	10	47	5:16	Punt
7	ATL	ATL 8	4	8	1:54	Punt
8	PHI	PHI 38	13	79	1:42	Touchdown
9	ATL	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
10	PHI	PHI 20	6	25	2:23	Punt
11	ATL	ATL 14	4	4	1:33	Punt
12	PHI	PHI 31	9	50	4:07	Turnover on downs
13	ATL	ATL 19	4	23	2:33	Punt
14	PHI	50	7	50	2:59	Touchdown
15	ATL	ATL 25	7	11	1:46	Punt
16	PHI	PHI 18	7	28	3:08	Punt
17	ATL	ATL 8	6	22	2:10	Punt
18	PHI	PHI 20	4	2	2:18	Punt
19	ATL	ATL 18	6	14	1:24	Turnover on downs
20	PHI	ATL 22	3	32	1:19	Touchdown
21	ATL	ATL 25	5	-13	1:07	Turnover on downs
22	PHI	ATL 31	4	11	2:03	Turnover on downs
23	ATL	ATL 25	3	13	1:10	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 79 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	27/35	264	3	0	1	12.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Miles Sanders	15	74	4.9	0	-1.0
Jalen Hurts	7	62	8.9	0	5.3
Kenneth Gainwell	9	37	4.1	1	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVonta Smith	6	8	71	1	25%	5.0
Jalen Reagor	6	6	49	1	19%	3.6
Dallas Goedert	4	5	42	1	16%	4.9
Miles Sanders	4	5	39	0	16%	1.2
Zach Ertz	2	2	34	0	6%	2.1
Quez Watkins	3	3	23	0	9%	1.9
Kenneth Gainwell	2	3	6	0	9%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Avonte Maddox	6	3	0.0	1
Eric Wilson	2	6	0.0	0
Alex Singleton	3	5	0.0	0
Steven Nelson	3	4	0.0	0
Darius Slay	3	3	0.0	1
Javon Hargrave	3	2	2.0	0
Shaun Bradley	1	4	0.0	0
Anthony Harris	2	1	0.0	0
Hassan Ridgeway	1	1	1.0	0
Derek Barnett	1	1	0.0	0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	21/35	164	0	0	3	-16.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Cordarrelle Patterson	7	54	7.7	4.0
Mike Davis	15	49	3.3	-3.7
Keith Smith	2	13	6.5	-0.9
Matt Ryan	2	8	4.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Calvin Ridley	5	8	51	24%	0.8
Kyle Pitts	4	8	31	24%	0.1
Hayden Hurst	4	4	28	12%	-0.2
Mike Davis	3	6	23	18%	-3.0
Keith Smith	3	3	18	9%	0.5
Cordarrelle Patterson	2	2	13	6%	0.2
Russell Gage	0	2	0	6%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Deion Jones	4	7	0.0	1
Foyesade Oluokun	4	4	0.0	0
Duron Harmon	6	1	0.0	0
A.J. Terrell	6	1	0.0	0
Erik Harris	5	1	0.0	0
Steven Means	2	2	0.0	0
Isaiah Oliver	2	2	0.0	0
Fabian Moreau	3	0	0.0	1
Jacob Tuioti-Mariner	2	1	1.0	0
Marlon Davidson	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -3.5
Closing total: 49
PHI moneyline: +161
ATL moneyline: -180

Falcons closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49; the game landed 38 — under by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: PHI 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Nick Sirianni vs Arthur Smith