For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Philadelphia Eagles 32 at Atlanta Falcons 6. Final.
Falcons -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 1
Philadelphia Eagles 32, Falcons 6 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 12:55, 4th and 4, on Jalen Hurts — 9.7 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:55 · 4th and 4
Jalen Hurts
Falcons
(12:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right.
U 49 ✓
Falcons closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Philadelphia Eagles 32–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:55, Falcons +9.7% win probability on one snap.
9.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jalen HurtsEaglesQ2 1:02(1:02) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles left end ran ob at ATL 34 for 11 yards (22-F.Moreau).
6.6pts
Dallas GoedertEaglesQ2 0:22(:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at ATL 4 for 12 yards (23-E.Harris).
6.9pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 60% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.40 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Falcons at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Eagles180 of 189 plays carry both curves
(12:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right.
Swing +9.7 for FalconsExpected points +3.29 for FalconsThe model had Eagles 5 points higher than the market did.play 54
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
2nd · 0:22ATL +7% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at ATL 4 for 12 yards (23-E.Harris).
2nd · 1:02ATL +7% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles left end ran ob at ATL 34 for 11 yards (22-F.Moreau).
2nd · 9:50PHI +6% win prob(9:50) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right [96-D.Barnett]. PENALTY on ATL-2-M.Ryan, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at PHI 49.
2nd · 0:09ATL +6% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 7:03PHI +5% win prob(7:03) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell right guard to ATL 19 for 1 yard (45-D.Jones; 54-F.Oluokun).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
DeVonta Smith's 18-yard touchdown catch with 6:23 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:02Younghoe Koo·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder C.Nizialek · snap J.Harris+30–3
4th1:15Jake Elliott·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder A.Siposs · snap R.Lovato+332–6
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryFalcons
Eagles8–0Falcons
436Total yards260
6.5Yards per play4.1
60%Success rate34%
46%Third-down rate21%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
8Explosive plays6
24First downs15
1Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Eagles ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Eagles: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.28Falcons: −0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.38Eagles: +0.38 expected points added per play
−0.40Falcons: −0.40 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Eagles: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.09Falcons: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 67 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Falcons’s 64 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 5, Falcons 2.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 22 pts
leaned — got home · +10.6 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+1.42× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Falcons5.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −4.2 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±3.9 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.1%, 10.6 points above their season mean of 12.5% and 1.4 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass−12% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(12:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right.
Q2 12:55 · Eagles · 4th & 4 at ATL 36 · gained nothing · -3.29 EP · −11.6% win probability
178 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 75 yards from the PHI 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
41%
Yards
696
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.3757%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.6179%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.2339%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17-0.5059%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR12+0.2142%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.0145%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.3950%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Falcons0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Eagles0Falcons3
Field goal16 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Eagles 3
Eagles6Falcons3
Eagles7Falcons3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Falcons 18
The period ended18 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Eagles 2
2nd quarter59 plays
Eagles7Falcons6
Field goal2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.8 seconds
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Eagles 17 to the Falcons 36
Punt10 plays, from the Falcons 36 to the Eagles 49
Punt13 plays, from the Eagles 19 to the Falcons 32
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 8 to the Falcons 12
Eagles13Falcons6
Eagles15Falcons6
Touchdown20 plays, from the Eagles 38 to the Falcons 4
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 48
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Falcons 19
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Eagles 31 to the Falcons 20
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Falcons 27
Eagles21Falcons6
Eagles22Falcons6
Touchdown7 plays, from midfield to the Falcons 8
The period ended6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 40
4th quarter47 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 18 to the Eagles 47
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 8 to the Falcons 30
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 25
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Falcons 18 to the Falcons 32
Eagles28Falcons6
Eagles29Falcons6
Touchdown4 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 49
Eagles32Falcons6
Field goal6 plays, from the Falcons 31 to the Falcons 25
The period ended4 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
