2021 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 12, 2021 · New Era Field

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

Buffalo Bills

BUF -6.5 upsetU 48 ✓17 mph windBills closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23–16. Biggest swing: Q4 9:51, PIT +18% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 9:51PIT — BUF BUF ball · 4th & 12PIT 65%

(9:51) 3-M.Haack punt is BLOCKED by 28-M.Killebrew, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by PIT-54-U.Gilbert at BUF 9. 54-U.Gilbert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 9:51PIT +18% win prob(9:51) 3-M.Haack punt is BLOCKED by 28-M.Killebrew, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by PIT-54-U.Gilbert at BUF 9. 54-U.Gilbert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 12:16BUF +12% win prob(12:16) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Claypool (39-L.Wallace). PENALTY on BUF-39-L.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, 26 yards, enforced at BUF 49 - No Play.
Q4 · 11:24BUF +11% win prob(11:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 18-D.Johnson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 8:47PIT +11% win prob(8:47) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at PIT 45 for -7 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt) [90-T.Watt], touched at PIT 43, RECOVERED by PIT-97-C.Heyward at PIT 45.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Bills
Offensive plays	52	79
Total yards	255	371 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	-0.06 (edge)	-0.10
Success rate	38%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	67%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14 (edge)	-0.15
Third downs	4/12	8/18 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	13	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Bills outgained Steelers 371–255 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

30/51, 270 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-6.1 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

18/32, 188 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-0.8 expected points added · -10.5% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

11 att, 72 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

16 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-4.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

9/13 for 69 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -0.9 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Cole BeasleyWR

8/13 for 60 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -3.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	PIT 24	5	5	1:30	Turnover on downs
2	PIT	PIT 25	7	22	2:55	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 12	11	53	5:30	Punt
4	PIT	PIT 20	4	5	1:15	Punt
5	BUF	BUF 37	4	9	1:09	Punt
6	PIT	PIT 13	7	25	3:40	Punt
7	BUF	BUF 23	8	34	3:03	Punt
8	PIT	PIT 7	4	2	1:26	Punt
9	BUF	PIT 35	3	-8	0:54	Fumble
10	PIT	PIT 45	5	0	2:37	Punt
11	BUF	BUF 9	14	96	5:39	Touchdown
12	PIT	PIT 25	2	0	0:22	End of half
13	PIT	PIT 25	11	64	4:37	Turnover on downs
14	BUF	BUF 25	13	40	4:35	Turnover on downs
15	PIT	PIT 36	11	62	4:01	Turnover on downs
16	BUF	BUF 25	9	27	3:05	Turnover on downs
17	PIT	PIT 48	5	26	2:23	Touchdown
18	BUF	BUF 25	5	-2	1:34	Defensive touchdown
19	BUF	BUF 26	10	67	4:22	Turnover on downs
20	PIT	PIT 25	10	49	2:41	Turnover on downs
21	BUF	BUF 36	11	50	1:56	Turnover on downs
22	PIT	BUF 45	3	0	0:46	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 96 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	18/32	188	1	0	2	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Najee Harris	16	45	2.8	-4.8
Chase Claypool	1	25	25.0	2.4
Ben Roethlisberger	4	5	1.3	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
JuJu Smith-Schuster	4	8	52	0	25%	1.6
Chase Claypool	3	5	45	0	16%	2.0
Diontae Johnson	5	10	36	1	31%	-0.1
Pat Freiermuth	1	1	24	0	3%	2.1
Eric Ebron	1	2	19	0	6%	1.3
James Washington	2	2	10	0	6%	0.6
Najee Harris	1	3	4	0	9%	-3.6
Zach Gentry	1	1	-2	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Minkah Fitzpatrick	5	4	0.0	0
Devin Bush	5	4	0.0	0
James Pierre	6	1	0.0	1
Tyson Alualu	2	3	0.0	0
Joe Schobert	1	4	0.0	0
Cameron Sutton	5	0	0.0	2
Cameron Heyward	2	2	1.0	2
Terrell Edmunds	3	1	0.0	0
Alex Highsmith	3	1	0.0	0
Joe Haden	2	2	0.0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	30/51	270	1	0	3	-6.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Devin Singletary	11	72	6.5	0.8
Josh Allen	9	44	4.9	3.8
Matt Breida	4	4	1.0	-5.2
Isaiah McKenzie	1	-3	-3.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	9	13	69	0	27%	-0.9
Cole Beasley	8	13	60	0	27%	-3.4
Emmanuel Sanders	4	8	52	0	17%	3.0
Dawson Knox	4	4	41	0	8%	4.0
Gabe Davis	2	5	40	1	10%	1.8
Devin Singletary	3	5	8	0	10%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Taron Johnson	6	0	0.0	2
Micah Hyde	4	1	0.0	1
Jordan Poyer	4	1	1.0	0
Levi Wallace	4	0	0.0	1
Tremaine Edmunds	3	1	0.0	1
Matt Milano	3	1	0.0	1
Tre'Davious White	2	1	0.0	0
Ed Oliver	2	0	0.0	0
Gregory Rousseau	2	0	0.0	0
Siran Neal	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -6.5
Closing total: 48
PIT moneyline: +232
BUF moneyline: -267

Bills closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 39 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 73°F, wind 17 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: PIT 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Sean McDermott

Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.