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Pittsburgh Steelers 23 at Buffalo Bills 16. Final.
Bills -6.5 upsetU 48 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 1
Pittsburgh Steelers 23, Bills 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 9:51, 4th and 12 — 17.9 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:51 · 4th and 12
Unnamed on the sheet
Steelers
(9:51) 3-M.Haack punt is BLOCKED by 28-M.Killebrew, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by PIT-54-U.Gilbert at BUF 9. 54-U.Gilbert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.7 mph wind
Bills closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 23–16. Biggest swing: Q4 9:51, Steelers +17.9% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.7 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
17.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ben RoethlisbergerSteelersQ4 12:16(12:16) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Claypool (39-L.Wallace). PENALTY on BUF-39-L.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, 26 yards, enforced at BUF 49 - No Play.
12.4pts
Diontae JohnsonSteelersQ4 11:24(11:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 18-D.Johnson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — no giveaways, against Bills at 1 giveaway.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 18 on third down, against Steelers at 4 of 12 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Steelers won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Bills at 4 chunk plays.
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Steelers177 of 187 plays carry both curves
(9:51) 3-M.Haack punt is BLOCKED by 28-M.Killebrew, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by PIT-54-U.Gilbert at BUF 9. 54-U.Gilbert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −17.9 for BillsExpected points −5.39 for BillsThe model had Steelers 7 points higher than the market did.play 142
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 9:51PIT +18% win prob(9:51) 3-M.Haack punt is BLOCKED by 28-M.Killebrew, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by PIT-54-U.Gilbert at BUF 9. 54-U.Gilbert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:16BUF +12% win prob(12:16) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Claypool (39-L.Wallace). PENALTY on BUF-39-L.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, 26 yards, enforced at BUF 49 - No Play.
4th · 11:24BUF +11% win prob(11:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 18-D.Johnson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:47PIT +11% win prob(8:47) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at PIT 45 for -7 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt) [90-T.Watt], touched at PIT 43, RECOVERED by PIT-97-C.Heyward at PIT 45.
1st · 15:00BUF +9% win prob9-C.Boswell kicks 64 yards from PIT 35 to BUF 1. 19-I.McKenzie to PIT 24 for 75 yards (54-U.Gilbert).
4th · 10:31PIT +8% win prob(10:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 23 for -6 yards (97-C.Heyward).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Diontae Johnson's 5-yard touchdown catch with 11:24 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:34Tyler Bass·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap R.Ferguson+30–3
3rd10:26Chris Boswell·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+33–10
3rd1:50Chris Boswell·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+36–10
4th11:24Diontae Johnson·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben RoethlisbergerLead never changed again+713–10
4th9:51Ulysees Gilbert·9-yd return TD9-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+720–10
4th5:26Tyler Bass·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap R.Ferguson+320–13
4th2:47Chris Boswell·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+323–13
4th0:49Tyler Bass·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap R.Ferguson+323–16
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryBills
Steelers4–4Bills
255Total yards371
4.9Yards per play4.7
38%Success rate41%
33%Third-down rate44%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays4
13First downs21
2Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Steelers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Steelers: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.10Bills: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.02Steelers: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.07Bills: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Steelers: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.15Bills: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 52 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Bills’s 79 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Bills 3.
NoteBills outgained Steelers 371-255 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's pass rate over expected, +11.5 pts, sat 12.6 points above their season number of −1.1 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 2.2 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Bills17.1%
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 11.5 pts, 12.6 points above their season mean of -1.1 pts and 2.2 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Roethlisberger pass+19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(12:16) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Claypool (39-L.Wallace). PENALTY on BUF-39-L.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, 26 yards, enforced at BUF 49 - No Play.
Q4 12:16 · Steelers · 3rd & 7 at BUF 49 · gained nothing · +3.09 EP · +19.2% win probability
176 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 187 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 91 yards from the BUF 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
39%
Yards
623
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.1057%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0477%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR24+0.1783%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.1825%
Bills0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR9-1.15100%
Bills0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Steelers0Bills3
Field goal5 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Steelers 17
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 47
Punt13 plays, from the Bills 12 to the Bills 49
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 26
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 37 to the Bills 46
The period ended5 plays, from the Steelers 13 to the Steelers 33
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Steelers 43
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 7 to the Steelers 9
Fumble lost3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 45 to the Bills 45
Steelers0Bills9
Steelers0Bills10
Touchdown19 plays, from the Bills 9 to the Steelers 3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Steelers3Bills10
Field goal12 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Bills 6
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Steelers 35
Steelers6Bills10
Field goal11 plays, from the Steelers 36 to the Bills 2
The period ended7 plays, from the Bills 25 to midfield
4th quarter59 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs3 plays, from midfield to the Steelers 41
Steelers12Bills10
Steelers13Bills10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Steelers 48 to the Bills 5
Steelers19Bills10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 29
Steelers20Bills10
Steelers20Bills13
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Steelers 5
Steelers23Bills13
Field goal14 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Bills 27
Steelers23Bills16
Field goal14 plays, from the Bills 36 to the Steelers 14
The period ended4 plays
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
