2021 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 12, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWinner

Indianapolis Colts

SEA -3 ✓U 49 ✓DomeSeahawks closed -3 and covered, winning by 12.

Seattle Seahawks 28–16. Biggest swing: Q2 0:51, IND +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:51SEA — IND SEA ball · 2nd & 20SEA 74%

(:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:51IND +15% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 2:42IND +9% win prob(2:42) 32-C.Carson right tackle pushed ob at IND 27 for 33 yards (32-J.Blackmon).
Q1 · 1:31IND +9% win prob(1:31) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 5:44SEA +6% win prob(5:44) 3-R.Blankenship 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Colts
Offensive plays	53	72
Total yards	381 (edge)	336
Yards per play	7.2 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	0.20 (edge)	-0.10
Success rate	49% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	53%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.50 (edge)	0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14 (edge)	-0.30
Third downs	4/9 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	18	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	1	1

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

18/23, 254 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

12.1 expected points added · +19.5% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Carson WentzQB

25/38, 251 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

0.3 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Chris CarsonRB

16 att, 91 yds, 0 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

17 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

4/5 for 100 yds, 2 TD

24% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

6/7 for 60 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 1.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	15	67	9:19	Turnover on downs
2	SEA	SEA 19	11	86	4:15	Touchdown
3	IND	IND 25	5	-4	1:36	Punt
4	SEA	SEA 39	8	61	3:28	Touchdown
5	IND	IND 32	9	68	4:18	Touchdown
6	SEA	SEA 25	6	22	1:53	Punt
7	IND	IND 33	4	9	2:11	Punt
8	SEA	SEA 17	7	88	2:19	Touchdown
9	IND	IND 19	5	9	0:41	Turnover on downs
10	SEA	SEA 25	7	21	2:41	Punt
11	IND	IND 12	4	7	1:13	Punt
12	SEA	SEA 38	6	7	3:10	Punt
13	IND	IND 15	4	-8	1:40	Punt
14	SEA	IND 49	2	4	0:39	Fumble
15	IND	IND 45	5	24	2:10	Fumble
16	SEA	SEA 31	6	19	2:05	Punt
17	IND	IND 14	14	54	6:26	Turnover on downs
18	SEA	SEA 27	8	73	3:15	Touchdown
19	IND	IND 25	12	72	4:33	Touchdown
20	SEA	IND 45	5	0	0:28	Punt
21	IND	IND 10	6	38	1:40	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 88 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	18/23	254	4	0	3	12.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chris Carson	16	91	5.7	-2.6
D'Wayne Eskridge	2	22	11.0	1.8
Russell Wilson	5	9	1.8	-0.2
Rashaad Penny	2	8	4.0	-0.4
DeeJay Dallas	1	5	5.0	0.1
Freddie Swain	1	5	5.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	4	5	100	2	24%	8.3
DK Metcalf	4	5	60	1	24%	3.1
Will Dissly	3	3	37	0	14%	3.6
Chris Carson	3	3	26	0	14%	1.4
Gerald Everett	2	2	20	1	10%	2.9
D'Wayne Eskridge	1	1	6	0	5%	0.2
DeeJay Dallas	1	1	5	0	5%	-0.3
Freddie Swain	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bobby Wagner	3	7	0.0	1
Jordyn Brooks	4	4	0.0	0
Jamal Adams	3	3	0.0	0
Bryan Mone	3	2	0.0	0
Quandre Diggs	3	2	0.0	0
D.J. Reed	3	1	0.0	0
Tre Flowers	4	0	0.0	0
Rasheem Green	2	1	1.0	2
Ugochukwu Amadi	2	1	0.0	0
Marquise Blair	1	1	0.0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	25/38	251	2	0	3	0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	17	56	3.3	-1.7
Nyheim Miller-Hines	9	34	3.8	-2.1
Carson Wentz	4	23	5.8	-3.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	6	7	60	0	20%	1.1
Nyheim Miller-Hines	6	8	48	0	23%	0.8
Zach Pascal	4	5	43	2	14%	5.5
Michael Pittman	3	4	29	0	11%	-0.2
Mike Strachan	2	2	26	0	6%	4.2
Parris Campbell	1	3	24	0	9%	-0.9
Jack Doyle	3	4	21	0	11%	1.1
Mo Alie-Cox	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bobby Okereke	4	2	0.0	0
Khari Willis	4	1	0.5	0
Julian Blackmon	3	2	0.0	0
Rock Ya-Sin	3	1	0.0	0
T.J. Carrie	4	0	0.0	1
Al-Quadin Muhammad	2	1	0.5	0
Shaquille Leonard	3	0	0.0	0
Kwity Paye	2	1	0.0	0
DeForest Buckner	2	1	1.0	0
Kenny Moore	3	0	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -3
Closing total: 49
SEA moneyline: -146
IND moneyline: +132

Seahawks closed -3 and covered, winning by 12.

Total closed 49; the game landed 44 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: SEA 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Frank Reich