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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Seahawks158 of 167 plays carry both curves
(:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −15.3 for ColtsExpected points −6.39 for ColtsThe model had Colts 8 points higher than the market did.play 71
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:51IND +15% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:42IND +9% win prob(2:42) 32-C.Carson right tackle pushed ob at IND 27 for 33 yards (32-J.Blackmon).
1st · 1:31IND +9% win prob(1:31) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:44SEA +6% win prob(5:44) 3-R.Blankenship 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
2nd · 3:07IND +6% win prob(3:07) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to SEA 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.
4th · 10:00SEA +6% win prob(10:00) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz sacked at SEA 27 for -9 yards (52-D.Taylor).
3rd · 5:42SEA +6% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Lockett's 23-yard touchdown catch with 1:31 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:44Rodrigo Blankenship·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+30–3
1st1:31Tyler Lockett·23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell WilsonLead never changed again+77–3
2nd11:27Gerald Everett·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+714–3
Seahawks ahead 5–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.20Seahawks: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.10Colts: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.50Seahawks: +0.50 expected points added per play
+0.04Colts: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Seahawks: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.30Colts: −0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 53 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Colts’s 72 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, Colts 4.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
leaned — got home · +10.4 vs their 12.3%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+1.91× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Colts21.4%
leaned — got home · +8.6 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 22.7%, 10.4 points above their season mean of 12.3% and 1.9 times their own 5.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass+15% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:51 · Seahawks · 2nd & 20 at SEA 31 · gained 69 · +6.39 EP · +15.3% win probability
156 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 83 yards from the SEA 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
44%
Yards
717
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61-0.1161%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.2848%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.0457%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.0238%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Seahawks0Colts3
Field goal16 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Seahawks 3
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Seahawks6Colts3
Seahawks7Colts3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 19 to the Colts 23
The period ended5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 30
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt1 play
Seahawks13Colts3
Seahawks14Colts3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Colts 9
Seahawks14Colts9
Seahawks14Colts10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Seahawks 10
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 47
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Colts 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Seahawks20Colts10
Seahawks21Colts10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 17 to the Seahawks 41
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Colts 19 to the Colts 28
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 46
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 12 to the Colts 19
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Colts 48
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 15 to the Colts 17
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Colts 49 to the Colts 46
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Colts 45 to the Seahawks 31
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to midfield
The period ended5 plays, from the Colts 14 to the Colts 28
4th quarter47 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Seahawks 18
Seahawks27Colts10
Seahawks28Colts10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Colts 15
Seahawks28Colts16
Touchdown14 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Seahawks 1
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 45 to the Colts 42
The period ended7 plays, from the Colts 10 to the Colts 40
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
