2021 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 12, 2021 · Ford Field

San Francisco 49ersWinner

Detroit Lions

SF -9.5 no coverO 46 ✓Dome49ers closed -9.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.

San Francisco 49ers 41–33. Biggest swing: Q1 12:01, SF +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:01SF — DET SF ball · 1st & 10SF 83%

(12:01) 10-J.Garoppolo FUMBLES (Aborted) at SF 36, touched at SF 36, RECOVERED by DET-8-J.Collins at SF 38.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:01SF +9% win prob(12:01) 10-J.Garoppolo FUMBLES (Aborted) at SF 36, touched at SF 36, RECOVERED by DET-8-J.Collins at SF 38.
Q2 · 11:20DET +6% win prob(11:20) 25-E.Mitchell right end for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-95-R.Okwara, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q2 · 13:33DET +6% win prob(13:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 88-T.Hockenson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:06SF +6% win prob(12:06) 71-L.Stenberg reported in as eligible. 30-J.Williams up the middle to SF 36 for -1 yards (3-J.Tartt).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Lions
Offensive plays	53	86
Total yards	443 (edge)	434
Yards per play	8.4 (edge)	5.0
Expected points added / play	0.25 (edge)	-0.08
Success rate	51% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	51%	76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.68 (edge)	-0.11
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20	0.01 (edge)
Third downs	3/9 (edge)	4/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	29 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

38/57, 338 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

-6.8 expected points added · -3.7% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

17/25, 314 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

20.3 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Elijah MitchellRB

19 att, 104 yds, 1 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Jamaal WilliamsRB

9 att, 54 yds, 1 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

9/12 for 189 yds, 1 TD

52% of team targets · 10.7 expected points added

Receiving · DET

T.J. HockensonTE

8/11 for 97 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 25	7	39	2:59	Turnover on downs
2	SF	SF 36	1	0	0:05	Fumble
3	DET	SF 38	6	5	2:20	Turnover on downs
4	SF	SF 41	8	59	3:55	Touchdown
5	DET	DET 18	15	67	7:12	Touchdown
6	SF	SF 22	6	78	2:17	Touchdown
7	DET	DET 25	10	44	4:59	Turnover on downs
8	SF	SF 25	9	60	3:48	Touchdown
9	DET	DET 20	5	12	1:15	Defensive touchdown
10	DET	DET 25	5	-3	0:25	Punt
11	SF	SF 28	7	35	0:42	Turnover on downs
12	DET	—	1	0	0:03	End of half
13	SF	SF 19	9	57	3:40	Turnover on downs
14	DET	DET 42	5	1	1:04	Punt
15	SF	SF 9	6	91	2:22	Touchdown
16	DET	DET 25	9	75	3:31	Touchdown
17	SF	SF 20	7	25	3:49	Punt
18	DET	DET 12	4	-5	1:56	Punt
19	SF	SF 47	7	19	3:45	Turnover on downs
20	DET	DET 25	6	33	2:25	Turnover on downs
21	SF	SF 47	4	6	1:43	Punt
22	DET	DET 14	13	59	3:52	Touchdown
23	SF	DET 41	8	61	0:46	Touchdown
24	SF	DET 43	4	13	0:15	Fumble
25	DET	DET 30	8	46	0:40	Turnover on downs
26	SF	SF 24	1	0	0:12	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 91 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	17/25	314	1	0	1	20.3
Trey Lance	1/1	5	1	0	0	1.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Elijah Mitchell	19	104	5.5	1	1.2
Raheem Mostert	2	20	10.0	0	1.5
Jamycal Hasty	1	3	3.0	1	1.0
Jimmy Garoppolo	3	2	0.7	0	-6.4
Trey Lance	3	2	0.7	0	-3.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Deebo Samuel	9	12	189	1	52%	10.7
George Kittle	4	5	78	0	22%	5.6
Trent Sherfield	2	3	23	1	13%	1.3
Jamycal Hasty	1	1	15	0	4%	2.5
Kyle Juszczyk	1	1	7	0	4%	1.4
Mohamed Sanu	1	1	7	0	4%	1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Fred Warner	6	4	0.0	0	0
Azeez Al-Shaair	4	3	0.0	0	2
Jaquiski Tartt	4	2	0.0	0	0
Dre Greenlaw	4	2	0.0	1	1
Jimmie Ward	4	2	0.0	0	0
Samson Ebukam	2	3	0.0	0	0
Jason Verrett	3	2	0.0	0	0
Nick Bosa	4	0	1.0	0	0
K'Waun Williams	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kentavius Street	1	2	1.0	0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	38/57	338	3	1	3	-6.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jamaal Williams	9	54	6.0	1	1.6
D'Andre Swift	11	39	3.5	0	-2.4
Jared Goff	3	14	4.7	0	-0.0
Kalif Raymond	1	9	9.0	0	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.J. Hockenson	8	11	97	1	20%	1.2
D'Andre Swift	8	11	65	1	20%	-0.3
Jamaal Williams	8	9	56	0	16%	1.2
Kalif Raymond	3	4	50	0	7%	2.1
Amon-Ra St. Brown	2	4	23	0	7%	-1.9
Trinity Benson	3	6	19	0	11%	-3.4
Tyrell Williams	2	3	14	0	5%	0.8
Quintez Cephus	3	6	12	1	11%	0.4
Darren Fells	1	1	2	0	2%	-0.5
Jason Cabinda	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Will Harris	4	3	0.0	0
Tracy Walker III	5	1	1.0	0
Michael Brockers	3	2	0.0	0
Jamie Collins	3	2	0.0	0
Jeff Okudah	3	1	0.0	1
Trey Flowers	4	0	0.0	0
Alex Anzalone	2	2	0.0	0
Kevin Strong	3	0	0.0	0
Jerry Jacobs	2	0	0.0	0
A.J. Parker	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -9.5
Closing total: 46
SF moneyline: -415
DET moneyline: +344

49ers closed -9.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 46; the game landed 74 — over by 28.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: SF 7 days · DET 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Dan Campbell