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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on 49ers182 of 192 plays carry both curves
(12:01) 10-J.Garoppolo FUMBLES (Aborted) at SF 36, touched at SF 36, RECOVERED by DET-8-J.Collins at SF 38.
Swing +8.5 for LionsExpected points +5.75 for LionsThe model had Lions 30 points higher than the market did.play 9
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:01SF +9% win prob(12:01) 10-J.Garoppolo FUMBLES (Aborted) at SF 36, touched at SF 36, RECOVERED by DET-8-J.Collins at SF 38.
2nd · 11:20DET +6% win prob(11:20) 25-E.Mitchell right end for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-95-R.Okwara, Defensive Offside, declined.
2nd · 13:33DET +6% win prob(13:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 88-T.Hockenson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:06SF +6% win prob(12:06) 71-L.Stenberg reported in as eligible. 30-J.Williams up the middle to SF 36 for -1 yards (3-J.Tartt).
1st · 10:29SF +4% win prob(10:29) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 32-D.Swift to SF 33 for -8 yards (51-A.Al-Shaair).
4th · 0:37DET +4% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 11-K.Raymond to SF 25 for 25 yards (1-J.Ward).
1st · 14:18
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Elijah Mitchell's 38-yard rushing touchdown with 11:20 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
4th1:10Quintez Cephus·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff · two-point good+841–33
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryLions
49ers5–4Lions
443Total yards434
8.4Yards per play5.0
51%Success rate45%
33%Third-down rate27%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays11
19First downs29
1Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
49ers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.68 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.2549ers: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.08Lions: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.6849ers: +0.68 expected points added per play
−0.11Lions: −0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.2049ers: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.01Lions: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 53 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Lions’s 86 at 76%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Lions 4.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 65 dropbacks
Lions11.1%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 41.9 points above their season mean of 58.1% and 1.4 times their own 29.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Garoppolo FUMBLES−15% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(12:01) 10-J.Garoppolo FUMBLES (Aborted) at SF 36, touched at SF 36, RECOVERED by DET-8-J.Collins at SF 38.
Q1 12:01 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at SF 36 · gained nothing · -5.75 EP · −15.5% win probability
180 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 192 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 192 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 91 yards from the SF 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
192 of 192 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
192
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
44%
Yards
876
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61+0.1180%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.3447%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15+0.3067%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.5447%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.0342%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-1.3288%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
192 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
192 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the 49ers 35
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost1 play
No good6 plays, from the 49ers 38 to the 49ers 25
49ers6Lions0
49ers7Lions0
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 41 to the Lions 5
The period ended13 plays, from the Lions 18 to the 49ers 17
2nd quarter52 plays
49ers7Lions6
49ers7Lions7
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 10 to the 49ers 6
49ers13Lions7
49ers14Lions7
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 22 to the Lions 38
49ers14Lions10
Field goal10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the 49ers 31
49ers20Lions10
49ers21Lions10
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Lions 3
49ers27Lions10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 33
49ers28Lions10
Punt7 plays
49ers31Lions10
Field goal8 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the Lions 22
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
No good9 plays, from the 49ers 19 to the Lions 26
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 42 to the 49ers 42
49ers37Lions10
49ers38Lions10
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 9 to the 49ers 21
49ers38Lions16
49ers38Lions17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 25 to the 49ers 43
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 46
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter63 plays
Punt3 plays
49ers41Lions17
Field goal7 plays, from the 49ers 47 to the Lions 34
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the 49ers 47
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 47 to the Lions 47
49ers41Lions23
49ers41Lions25
Touchdown15 plays, from the Lions 14 to the 49ers 1
49ers41Lions31
49ers41Lions33
Touchdown8 plays
Fumble lost7 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Lions 30 to the 49ers 24
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
