Gridiron · Game Center · 2018
The Fourth Down Room
Go, kick or punt — and what the win probability said.
−11.9Texans, the other endWent for it on 19.1% of 131 fourth downs where the rest of the league goes 17.1%.
How the baseline is built · no recommendation engine ▸
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2025.
3,611 real fourth-down decisions in the 2018 regular season. 183 more snaps are set aside — penalties that wiped the play before it resolved, and victory-formation kneels — because neither one decided anything.
Every fourth down. Every regular-season fourth down that resolved into a real decision. 32 of 32 teams clear 20 decisions in every state on the field; a grid cell under 25 decisions is withheld rather than painted.
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2025.
Painted Monday 04:00 ET · the room refreshes with the weekly play-by-play sync
Reading today’s slate…
The signature object · and the filter
The decision grid
Pooled 2018–2025, so every cell is thousands of decisions rather than a season of noise. Read the middle of the top row before trusting anything else: the league goes for it LESS at the opponent's 16-25 than at the 26-38, because 16-25 is a comfortable field goal and 26-38 is a long one. A grid that fell smoothly with field position would be a grid that had lost the plot.
League 2018–2025
| To gain | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n/aFourth and 7-10 from the Goal line is not a possible state. | |||||||
n/aFourth and 11+ from the Goal line is not a possible state. |
Numeral = go-rate · small figure = decisions in the cell · n/a = a state the field cannot produce
Go over expected · every state on the field
The aggression ladder
Raw go-rate lies about who is aggressive, because it does not know which spots a team stood in. Go over expected does: it subtracts the league's own pooled rate in the SAME cells, weighted by how often this team was there. The two orderings are not the same list, and where a team moves between them is the finding.
Decisions made
- 1
DenverBroncos+1.919% of 131Denver Broncos, go over expected 1.9 points, 19 percent of 131 decisions - 2
CarolinaPanthers+1.819% of 98Carolina Panthers, go over expected 1.8 points, 19 percent of 98 decisions - 3
Green BayPackers+0.516% of 122Green Bay Packers, go over expected 0.5 points, 16 percent of 122 decisions - 4
WashingtonCommanders+0.115% of 124Washington Commanders, go over expected 0.1 points, 15 percent of 124 decisions - 5
CincinnatiBengals−0.115% of 111Cincinnati Bengals, go over expected -0.1 points, 15 percent of 111 decisions - 6
New YorkGiants−0.217% of 120New York Giants, go over expected -0.2 points, 17 percent of 120 decisions - 7
AtlantaFalcons−0.318% of 105Atlanta Falcons, go over expected -0.3 points, 18 percent of 105 decisions - 8
BaltimoreRavens−0.519% of 118Baltimore Ravens, go over expected -0.5 points, 19 percent of 118 decisions - 9
New YorkJets−1.215% of 136New York Jets, go over expected -1.2 points, 15 percent of 136 decisions - 10
ClevelandBrowns−1.317% of 126Cleveland Browns, go over expected -1.3 points, 17 percent of 126 decisions - 11
BuffaloBills−1.413% of 126Buffalo Bills, go over expected -1.4 points, 13 percent of 126 decisions - 12
ArizonaCardinals−1.513% of 126Arizona Cardinals, go over expected -1.5 points, 13 percent of 126 decisions - 13
DallasCowboys−1.718% of 116Dallas Cowboys, go over expected -1.7 points, 18 percent of 116 decisions - 14
Tampa BayBuccaneers−1.914% of 96Tampa Bay Buccaneers, go over expected -1.9 points, 14 percent of 96 decisions - 15
PhiladelphiaEagles−1.921% of 112Philadelphia Eagles, go over expected -1.9 points, 21 percent of 112 decisions - 16
MinnesotaVikings−2.017% of 121Minnesota Vikings, go over expected -2.0 points, 17 percent of 121 decisions - 17
Kansas CityChiefs−3.017% of 86Kansas City Chiefs, go over expected -3.0 points, 17 percent of 86 decisions - 18
DetroitLions−3.315% of 124Detroit Lions, go over expected -3.3 points, 15 percent of 124 decisions - 19
JacksonvilleJaguars−3.413% of 128Jacksonville Jaguars, go over expected -3.4 points, 13 percent of 128 decisions - 20
Las VegasRaiders−4.114% of 114Las Vegas Raiders, go over expected -4.1 points, 14 percent of 114 decisions - 21
IndianapolisColts−4.515% of 93Indianapolis Colts, go over expected -4.5 points, 15 percent of 93 decisions - 22
Los AngelesRams−4.815% of 97Los Angeles Rams, go over expected -4.8 points, 15 percent of 97 decisions - 23
PittsburghSteelers−4.814% of 100Pittsburgh Steelers, go over expected -4.8 points, 14 percent of 100 decisions - 24
MiamiDolphins−5.111% of 120Miami Dolphins, go over expected -5.1 points, 11 percent of 120 decisions - 25
New OrleansSaints−6.118% of 87New Orleans Saints, go over expected -6.1 points, 18 percent of 87 decisions - 26
SeattleSeahawks−6.512% of 117Seattle Seahawks, go over expected -6.5 points, 12 percent of 117 decisions - 27
TennesseeTitans−7.011% of 114Tennessee Titans, go over expected -7.0 points, 11 percent of 114 decisions - 28
New EnglandPatriots−7.013% of 109New England Patriots, go over expected -7.0 points, 13 percent of 109 decisions - 29
San Francisco49ers−7.68% of 108San Francisco 49ers, go over expected -7.6 points, 8 percent of 108 decisions - 30
ChicagoBears−7.614% of 108Chicago Bears, go over expected -7.6 points, 14 percent of 108 decisions - 31
Los AngelesChargers−9.78% of 95Los Angeles Chargers, go over expected -9.7 points, 8 percent of 95 decisions - 32
HoustonTexans−11.910% of 123Houston Texans, go over expected -11.9 points, 10 percent of 123 decisions
Bar diverges from the league rate · under 20 decisions the figure is withheld, not guessed
2018 · every state on the field
What each choice actually returned
Mean win probability added, measured on the plays themselves — not a forecast of the road not taken. Every figure below is withheld under 25 plays, because the rare choice in a cell is rare precisely because it is unusual, and its mean is the loudest number in the row for exactly that reason.
Went for it
53515% of choices
Mean WP added+0.025
Measured on 238 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Converted69.3%
Drive ended in points49.2%
Kicked
86224% of choices
Mean WP added+0.002
Measured on 804 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Made85.7%
Punted
2,21461% of choices
Mean WP added+0.003
Measured on 2,173 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.