Gridiron · Game Center · 2018
The Fourth Down Room
Go, kick or punt — and what the win probability said.
Went for it on 19.1% of 131 fourth downs where the rest of the league goes 17.2%.
How the baseline is built · no recommendation engine ▸
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2026.
3,611 real fourth-down decisions in the 2018 regular season. 183 more snaps are set aside — penalties that wiped the play before it resolved, and victory-formation kneels — because neither one decided anything.
Every fourth down. Every regular-season fourth down that resolved into a real decision. 32 of 32 teams clear 20 decisions in every state on the field; a grid cell under 25 decisions is withheld rather than painted.
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2026.
Painted after the last game's play-by-play landed · the room repaints as each game's play-by-play lands, usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late
Reading today’s slate…
The signature object · and the filter
The decision grid
Pooled 2018–2026, so every cell is thousands of decisions rather than a season of noise. Read the middle of the top row before trusting anything else: the league goes for it LESS at the opponent's 16-25 than at the 26-38, because 16-25 is a comfortable field goal and 26-38 is a long one. A grid that fell smoothly with field position would be a grid that had lost the plot.
League 2018–2026
| To gain | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n/aFourth and 7-10 from the Goal line is not a possible state. | |||||||
n/aFourth and 11+ from the Goal line is not a possible state. |
Numeral = go-rate · small figure = decisions in the cell · n/a = a state the field cannot produce
League 2018–2026 · every state on the field
The call sheet
The bar is what coaches did. The rule across it is what this room's own win-probability means say they should have done: on every cell where all three choices cleared 25 plays, the model prefers going when going returned at least as much win probability as the better of kicking and punting, weighted by the decisions actually made there. Neither number is a forecast of a road not taken — both are measured on the plays themselves.
On fourth and 4-6 the league went for it 14.6% of the time while its own returns favoured going on 100.0% of the same 901 snaps — the widest gap on the sheet.
Thin sample: 5 qualified · too few rows to read as a set
Go over expected · every state on the field
The aggression ladder
Raw go-rate lies about who is aggressive, because it does not know which spots a team stood in. Go over expected does: it subtracts the league's own pooled rate in the SAME cells, weighted by how often this team was there. The two orderings are not the same list, and where a team moves between them is the finding.
Decisions made
- 1
DenverBroncos+1.919% of 131Denver Broncos, go over expected 1.9 points, 19 percent of 131 decisions - 2
CarolinaPanthers+1.819% of 98Carolina Panthers, go over expected 1.8 points, 19 percent of 98 decisions - 3
Green BayPackers+0.516% of 122Green Bay Packers, go over expected 0.5 points, 16 percent of 122 decisions - 4
WashingtonCommanders+0.215% of 124Washington Commanders, go over expected 0.2 points, 15 percent of 124 decisions - 5
CincinnatiBengals−0.115% of 111Cincinnati Bengals, go over expected -0.1 points, 15 percent of 111 decisions - 6
AtlantaFalcons−0.218% of 105Atlanta Falcons, go over expected -0.2 points, 18 percent of 105 decisions - 7
New YorkGiants−0.217% of 120New York Giants, go over expected -0.2 points, 17 percent of 120 decisions - 8
BaltimoreRavens−0.519% of 118Baltimore Ravens, go over expected -0.5 points, 19 percent of 118 decisions - 9
New YorkJets−1.215% of 136New York Jets, go over expected -1.2 points, 15 percent of 136 decisions - 10
ClevelandBrowns−1.417% of 126Cleveland Browns, go over expected -1.4 points, 17 percent of 126 decisions - 11
BuffaloBills−1.413% of 126Buffalo Bills, go over expected -1.4 points, 13 percent of 126 decisions - 12
ArizonaCardinals−1.513% of 126Arizona Cardinals, go over expected -1.5 points, 13 percent of 126 decisions - 13
DallasCowboys−1.618% of 116Dallas Cowboys, go over expected -1.6 points, 18 percent of 116 decisions - 14
Tampa BayBuccaneers−1.914% of 96Tampa Bay Buccaneers, go over expected -1.9 points, 14 percent of 96 decisions - 15
PhiladelphiaEagles−1.921% of 112Philadelphia Eagles, go over expected -1.9 points, 21 percent of 112 decisions - 16
MinnesotaVikings−2.017% of 121Minnesota Vikings, go over expected -2.0 points, 17 percent of 121 decisions - 17
Kansas CityChiefs−3.117% of 86Kansas City Chiefs, go over expected -3.1 points, 17 percent of 86 decisions - 18
DetroitLions−3.315% of 124Detroit Lions, go over expected -3.3 points, 15 percent of 124 decisions - 19
JacksonvilleJaguars−3.413% of 128Jacksonville Jaguars, go over expected -3.4 points, 13 percent of 128 decisions - 20
Las VegasRaiders−4.114% of 114Las Vegas Raiders, go over expected -4.1 points, 14 percent of 114 decisions - 21
IndianapolisColts−4.515% of 93Indianapolis Colts, go over expected -4.5 points, 15 percent of 93 decisions - 22
PittsburghSteelers−4.814% of 100Pittsburgh Steelers, go over expected -4.8 points, 14 percent of 100 decisions - 23
Los AngelesRams−4.815% of 97Los Angeles Rams, go over expected -4.8 points, 15 percent of 97 decisions - 24
MiamiDolphins−5.111% of 120Miami Dolphins, go over expected -5.1 points, 11 percent of 120 decisions - 25
New OrleansSaints−6.218% of 87New Orleans Saints, go over expected -6.2 points, 18 percent of 87 decisions - 26
SeattleSeahawks−6.512% of 117Seattle Seahawks, go over expected -6.5 points, 12 percent of 117 decisions - 27
New EnglandPatriots−7.013% of 109New England Patriots, go over expected -7.0 points, 13 percent of 109 decisions - 28
TennesseeTitans−7.011% of 114Tennessee Titans, go over expected -7.0 points, 11 percent of 114 decisions - 29
San Francisco49ers−7.68% of 108San Francisco 49ers, go over expected -7.6 points, 8 percent of 108 decisions - 30
ChicagoBears−7.614% of 108Chicago Bears, go over expected -7.6 points, 14 percent of 108 decisions - 31
Los AngelesChargers−9.78% of 95Los Angeles Chargers, go over expected -9.7 points, 8 percent of 95 decisions - 32
HoustonTexans−12.010% of 123Houston Texans, go over expected -12.0 points, 10 percent of 123 decisions
Bar diverges from the league rate · under 20 decisions the figure is withheld, not guessed
2018 · every state on the field
What each choice actually returned
Mean win probability added, measured on the plays themselves — not a forecast of the road not taken. Every figure below is withheld under 25 plays, because the rare choice in a cell is rare precisely because it is unusual, and its mean is the loudest number in the row for exactly that reason.
Went for it
53515% of choices
Mean WP added+0.025
Measured on 238 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Converted69.3%
Drive ended in points49.2%
Kicked
86224% of choices
Mean WP added+0.002
Measured on 804 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Made85.7%
Punted
2,21461% of choices
Mean WP added+0.003
Measured on 2,173 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.