Gridiron · Game Center · 2019
The Fourth Down Room
Go, kick or punt — and what the win probability said.
−8.3Raiders, the other endWent for it on 26.3% of 118 fourth downs where the rest of the league goes 14.5%.
How the baseline is built · no recommendation engine ▸
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2025.
3,657 real fourth-down decisions in the 2019 regular season. 230 more snaps are set aside — penalties that wiped the play before it resolved, and victory-formation kneels — because neither one decided anything.
Every fourth down. Every regular-season fourth down that resolved into a real decision. 32 of 32 teams clear 20 decisions in every state on the field; a grid cell under 25 decisions is withheld rather than painted.
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2025.
Painted Monday 04:00 ET · the room refreshes with the weekly play-by-play sync
Reading today’s slate…
The signature object · and the filter
The decision grid
Pooled 2018–2025, so every cell is thousands of decisions rather than a season of noise. Read the middle of the top row before trusting anything else: the league goes for it LESS at the opponent's 16-25 than at the 26-38, because 16-25 is a comfortable field goal and 26-38 is a long one. A grid that fell smoothly with field position would be a grid that had lost the plot.
League 2018–2025
| To gain | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n/aFourth and 7-10 from the Goal line is not a possible state. | |||||||
n/aFourth and 11+ from the Goal line is not a possible state. |
Numeral = go-rate · small figure = decisions in the cell · n/a = a state the field cannot produce
Go over expected · every state on the field
The aggression ladder
Raw go-rate lies about who is aggressive, because it does not know which spots a team stood in. Go over expected does: it subtracts the league's own pooled rate in the SAME cells, weighted by how often this team was there. The two orderings are not the same list, and where a team moves between them is the finding.
Decisions made
- 1
New YorkGiants+11.826% of 118New York Giants, go over expected 11.8 points, 26 percent of 118 decisions - 2
BaltimoreRavens+5.526% of 93Baltimore Ravens, go over expected 5.5 points, 26 percent of 93 decisions - 3
PhiladelphiaEagles+3.919% of 119Philadelphia Eagles, go over expected 3.9 points, 19 percent of 119 decisions - 4
MiamiDolphins+3.522% of 125Miami Dolphins, go over expected 3.5 points, 22 percent of 125 decisions - 5
JacksonvilleJaguars+3.418% of 131Jacksonville Jaguars, go over expected 3.4 points, 18 percent of 131 decisions - 6
CincinnatiBengals+3.320% of 130Cincinnati Bengals, go over expected 3.3 points, 20 percent of 130 decisions - 7
HoustonTexans+2.824% of 105Houston Texans, go over expected 2.8 points, 24 percent of 105 decisions - 8
AtlantaFalcons+2.819% of 110Atlanta Falcons, go over expected 2.8 points, 19 percent of 110 decisions - 9
CarolinaPanthers+1.519% of 128Carolina Panthers, go over expected 1.5 points, 19 percent of 128 decisions - 10
Los AngelesChargers+0.919% of 96Los Angeles Chargers, go over expected 0.9 points, 19 percent of 96 decisions - 11
ChicagoBears+0.816% of 128Chicago Bears, go over expected 0.8 points, 16 percent of 128 decisions - 12
IndianapolisColts+0.622% of 110Indianapolis Colts, go over expected 0.6 points, 22 percent of 110 decisions - 13
ClevelandBrowns−0.615% of 110Cleveland Browns, go over expected -0.6 points, 15 percent of 110 decisions - 14
ArizonaCardinals−1.716% of 122Arizona Cardinals, go over expected -1.7 points, 16 percent of 122 decisions - 15
WashingtonCommanders−1.912% of 119Washington Commanders, go over expected -1.9 points, 12 percent of 119 decisions - 16
MinnesotaVikings−2.114% of 104Minnesota Vikings, go over expected -2.1 points, 14 percent of 104 decisions - 17
New YorkJets−2.315% of 131New York Jets, go over expected -2.3 points, 15 percent of 131 decisions - 18
TennesseeTitans−2.613% of 109Tennessee Titans, go over expected -2.6 points, 13 percent of 109 decisions - 19
DallasCowboys−2.816% of 102Dallas Cowboys, go over expected -2.8 points, 16 percent of 102 decisions - 20
Green BayPackers−4.112% of 114Green Bay Packers, go over expected -4.1 points, 12 percent of 114 decisions - 21
BuffaloBills−4.115% of 124Buffalo Bills, go over expected -4.1 points, 15 percent of 124 decisions - 22
PittsburghSteelers−4.113% of 118Pittsburgh Steelers, go over expected -4.1 points, 13 percent of 118 decisions - 23
SeattleSeahawks−4.512% of 113Seattle Seahawks, go over expected -4.5 points, 12 percent of 113 decisions - 24
Tampa BayBuccaneers−4.616% of 107Tampa Bay Buccaneers, go over expected -4.6 points, 16 percent of 107 decisions - 25
Los AngelesRams−4.812% of 111Los Angeles Rams, go over expected -4.8 points, 12 percent of 111 decisions - 26
DenverBroncos−5.113% of 127Denver Broncos, go over expected -5.1 points, 13 percent of 127 decisions - 27
DetroitLions−5.111% of 119Detroit Lions, go over expected -5.1 points, 11 percent of 119 decisions - 28
New OrleansSaints−5.613% of 103New Orleans Saints, go over expected -5.6 points, 13 percent of 103 decisions - 29
New EnglandPatriots−6.312% of 130New England Patriots, go over expected -6.3 points, 12 percent of 130 decisions - 30
San Francisco49ers−7.912% of 97San Francisco 49ers, go over expected -7.9 points, 12 percent of 97 decisions - 31
Kansas CityChiefs−7.911% of 93Kansas City Chiefs, go over expected -7.9 points, 11 percent of 93 decisions - 32
Las VegasRaiders−8.317% of 111Las Vegas Raiders, go over expected -8.3 points, 17 percent of 111 decisions
Bar diverges from the league rate · under 20 decisions the figure is withheld, not guessed
2019 · every state on the field
What each choice actually returned
Mean win probability added, measured on the plays themselves — not a forecast of the road not taken. Every figure below is withheld under 25 plays, because the rare choice in a cell is rare precisely because it is unusual, and its mean is the loudest number in the row for exactly that reason.
Went for it
59316% of choices
Mean WP added+0.005
Measured on 342 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Converted53.8%
Drive ended in points38.0%
Kicked
90525% of choices
Mean WP added−0.001
Measured on 834 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Made82.5%
Punted
2,15959% of choices
Mean WP added+0.003
Measured on 2,132 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.