Gridiron · Game Center · 2020
The Fourth Down Room
Go, kick or punt — and what the win probability said.
−11.3Dolphins, the other endWent for it on 27.8% of 126 fourth downs where the rest of the league goes 15.7%.
How the baseline is built · no recommendation engine ▸
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2025.
3,421 real fourth-down decisions in the 2020 regular season. 219 more snaps are set aside — penalties that wiped the play before it resolved, and victory-formation kneels — because neither one decided anything.
Every fourth down. Every regular-season fourth down that resolved into a real decision. 32 of 32 teams clear 20 decisions in every state on the field; a grid cell under 25 decisions is withheld rather than painted.
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2025.
Painted Monday 04:00 ET · the room refreshes with the weekly play-by-play sync
Reading today’s slate…
The signature object · and the filter
The decision grid
Pooled 2018–2025, so every cell is thousands of decisions rather than a season of noise. Read the middle of the top row before trusting anything else: the league goes for it LESS at the opponent's 16-25 than at the 26-38, because 16-25 is a comfortable field goal and 26-38 is a long one. A grid that fell smoothly with field position would be a grid that had lost the plot.
League 2018–2025
| To gain | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n/aFourth and 7-10 from the Goal line is not a possible state. | |||||||
n/aFourth and 11+ from the Goal line is not a possible state. |
Numeral = go-rate · small figure = decisions in the cell · n/a = a state the field cannot produce
Go over expected · every state on the field
The aggression ladder
Raw go-rate lies about who is aggressive, because it does not know which spots a team stood in. Go over expected does: it subtracts the league's own pooled rate in the SAME cells, weighted by how often this team was there. The two orderings are not the same list, and where a team moves between them is the finding.
Decisions made
- 1
PhiladelphiaEagles+12.128% of 126Philadelphia Eagles, go over expected 12.1 points, 28 percent of 126 decisions - 2
JacksonvilleJaguars+7.423% of 112Jacksonville Jaguars, go over expected 7.4 points, 23 percent of 112 decisions - 3
DallasCowboys+6.826% of 119Dallas Cowboys, go over expected 6.8 points, 26 percent of 119 decisions - 4
AtlantaFalcons+4.822% of 116Atlanta Falcons, go over expected 4.8 points, 22 percent of 116 decisions - 5
ClevelandBrowns+3.825% of 97Cleveland Browns, go over expected 3.8 points, 25 percent of 97 decisions - 6
ChicagoBears+3.523% of 121Chicago Bears, go over expected 3.5 points, 23 percent of 121 decisions - 7
MinnesotaVikings+3.023% of 99Minnesota Vikings, go over expected 3.0 points, 23 percent of 99 decisions - 8
BaltimoreRavens+2.120% of 96Baltimore Ravens, go over expected 2.1 points, 20 percent of 96 decisions - 9
DetroitLions+2.020% of 102Detroit Lions, go over expected 2.0 points, 20 percent of 102 decisions - 10
CincinnatiBengals+1.721% of 130Cincinnati Bengals, go over expected 1.7 points, 21 percent of 130 decisions - 11
CarolinaPanthers+1.726% of 104Carolina Panthers, go over expected 1.7 points, 26 percent of 104 decisions - 12
ArizonaCardinals+1.623% of 109Arizona Cardinals, go over expected 1.6 points, 23 percent of 109 decisions - 13
Green BayPackers+1.425% of 84Green Bay Packers, go over expected 1.4 points, 25 percent of 84 decisions - 14
TennesseeTitans+0.618% of 90Tennessee Titans, go over expected 0.6 points, 18 percent of 90 decisions - 15
New YorkGiants−0.319% of 118New York Giants, go over expected -0.3 points, 19 percent of 118 decisions - 16
Los AngelesChargers−1.022% of 113Los Angeles Chargers, go over expected -1.0 points, 22 percent of 113 decisions - 17
HoustonTexans−2.016% of 99Houston Texans, go over expected -2.0 points, 16 percent of 99 decisions - 18
New EnglandPatriots−2.217% of 98New England Patriots, go over expected -2.2 points, 17 percent of 98 decisions - 19
DenverBroncos−2.313% of 114Denver Broncos, go over expected -2.3 points, 13 percent of 114 decisions - 20
New YorkJets−2.414% of 125New York Jets, go over expected -2.4 points, 14 percent of 125 decisions - 21
IndianapolisColts−2.723% of 107Indianapolis Colts, go over expected -2.7 points, 23 percent of 107 decisions - 22
SeattleSeahawks−3.014% of 97Seattle Seahawks, go over expected -3.0 points, 14 percent of 97 decisions - 23
Kansas CityChiefs−3.818% of 91Kansas City Chiefs, go over expected -3.8 points, 18 percent of 91 decisions - 24
Las VegasRaiders−3.921% of 99Las Vegas Raiders, go over expected -3.9 points, 21 percent of 99 decisions - 25
WashingtonCommanders−3.915% of 123Washington Commanders, go over expected -3.9 points, 15 percent of 123 decisions - 26
Los AngelesRams−4.715% of 115Los Angeles Rams, go over expected -4.7 points, 15 percent of 115 decisions - 27
Tampa BayBuccaneers−5.814% of 99Tampa Bay Buccaneers, go over expected -5.8 points, 14 percent of 99 decisions - 28
New OrleansSaints−6.215% of 102New Orleans Saints, go over expected -6.2 points, 15 percent of 102 decisions - 29
San Francisco49ers−6.814% of 104San Francisco 49ers, go over expected -6.8 points, 14 percent of 104 decisions - 30
PittsburghSteelers−7.216% of 120Pittsburgh Steelers, go over expected -7.2 points, 16 percent of 120 decisions - 31
BuffaloBills−10.112% of 82Buffalo Bills, go over expected -10.1 points, 12 percent of 82 decisions - 32
MiamiDolphins−11.39% of 110Miami Dolphins, go over expected -11.3 points, 9 percent of 110 decisions
Bar diverges from the league rate · under 20 decisions the figure is withheld, not guessed
2020 · every state on the field
What each choice actually returned
Mean win probability added, measured on the plays themselves — not a forecast of the road not taken. Every figure below is withheld under 25 plays, because the rare choice in a cell is rare precisely because it is unusual, and its mean is the loudest number in the row for exactly that reason.
Went for it
65519% of choices
Mean WP added+0.015
Measured on 358 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Converted65.1%
Drive ended in points45.8%
Kicked
86525% of choices
Mean WP added+0.004
Measured on 784 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Made87.0%
Punted
1,90156% of choices
Mean WP added+0.004
Measured on 1,883 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.