Gridiron · Game Center · 2021
The Fourth Down Room
Go, kick or punt — and what the win probability said.
−6.5Rams, the other endWent for it on 31.5% of 108 fourth downs where the rest of the league goes 19.6%.
How the baseline is built · no recommendation engine ▸
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2025.
3,800 real fourth-down decisions in the 2021 regular season. 260 more snaps are set aside — penalties that wiped the play before it resolved, and victory-formation kneels — because neither one decided anything.
Every fourth down. Every regular-season fourth down that resolved into a real decision. 32 of 32 teams clear 20 decisions in every state on the field; a grid cell under 25 decisions is withheld rather than painted.
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2025.
Painted Monday 04:00 ET · the room refreshes with the weekly play-by-play sync
Reading today’s slate…
The signature object · and the filter
The decision grid
Pooled 2018–2025, so every cell is thousands of decisions rather than a season of noise. Read the middle of the top row before trusting anything else: the league goes for it LESS at the opponent's 16-25 than at the 26-38, because 16-25 is a comfortable field goal and 26-38 is a long one. A grid that fell smoothly with field position would be a grid that had lost the plot.
League 2018–2025
| To gain | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n/aFourth and 7-10 from the Goal line is not a possible state. | |||||||
n/aFourth and 11+ from the Goal line is not a possible state. |
Numeral = go-rate · small figure = decisions in the cell · n/a = a state the field cannot produce
Go over expected · every state on the field
The aggression ladder
Raw go-rate lies about who is aggressive, because it does not know which spots a team stood in. Go over expected does: it subtracts the league's own pooled rate in the SAME cells, weighted by how often this team was there. The two orderings are not the same list, and where a team moves between them is the finding.
Decisions made
- 1
Los AngelesChargers+11.931% of 108Los Angeles Chargers, go over expected 11.9 points, 31 percent of 108 decisions - 2
DetroitLions+9.731% of 133Detroit Lions, go over expected 9.7 points, 31 percent of 133 decisions - 3
ChicagoBears+9.129% of 125Chicago Bears, go over expected 9.1 points, 29 percent of 125 decisions - 4
ClevelandBrowns+8.525% of 117Cleveland Browns, go over expected 8.5 points, 25 percent of 117 decisions - 5
CarolinaPanthers+8.125% of 136Carolina Panthers, go over expected 8.1 points, 25 percent of 136 decisions - 6
New YorkJets+6.924% of 123New York Jets, go over expected 6.9 points, 24 percent of 123 decisions - 7
ArizonaCardinals+6.726% of 111Arizona Cardinals, go over expected 6.7 points, 26 percent of 111 decisions - 8
JacksonvilleJaguars+3.724% of 128Jacksonville Jaguars, go over expected 3.7 points, 24 percent of 128 decisions - 9
PhiladelphiaEagles+3.522% of 112Philadelphia Eagles, go over expected 3.5 points, 22 percent of 112 decisions - 10
WashingtonCommanders+3.525% of 126Washington Commanders, go over expected 3.5 points, 25 percent of 126 decisions - 11
DenverBroncos+3.023% of 124Denver Broncos, go over expected 3.0 points, 23 percent of 124 decisions - 12
New YorkGiants+2.722% of 136New York Giants, go over expected 2.7 points, 22 percent of 136 decisions - 13
Green BayPackers+2.421% of 105Green Bay Packers, go over expected 2.4 points, 21 percent of 105 decisions - 14
BaltimoreRavens+2.021% of 129Baltimore Ravens, go over expected 2.0 points, 21 percent of 129 decisions - 15
IndianapolisColts+1.024% of 119Indianapolis Colts, go over expected 1.0 points, 24 percent of 119 decisions - 16
TennesseeTitans+0.721% of 113Tennessee Titans, go over expected 0.7 points, 21 percent of 113 decisions - 17
MinnesotaVikings+0.617% of 131Minnesota Vikings, go over expected 0.6 points, 17 percent of 131 decisions - 18
AtlantaFalcons+0.021% of 115Atlanta Falcons, go over expected 0.0 points, 21 percent of 115 decisions - 19
HoustonTexans−0.016% of 134Houston Texans, go over expected -0.0 points, 16 percent of 134 decisions - 20
DallasCowboys−0.920% of 121Dallas Cowboys, go over expected -0.9 points, 20 percent of 121 decisions - 21
BuffaloBills−1.121% of 104Buffalo Bills, go over expected -1.1 points, 21 percent of 104 decisions - 22
New OrleansSaints−1.116% of 133New Orleans Saints, go over expected -1.1 points, 16 percent of 133 decisions - 23
MiamiDolphins−1.817% of 128Miami Dolphins, go over expected -1.8 points, 17 percent of 128 decisions - 24
Tampa BayBuccaneers−2.515% of 106Tampa Bay Buccaneers, go over expected -2.5 points, 15 percent of 106 decisions - 25
Kansas CityChiefs−2.618% of 85Kansas City Chiefs, go over expected -2.6 points, 18 percent of 85 decisions - 26
San Francisco49ers−3.119% of 106San Francisco 49ers, go over expected -3.1 points, 19 percent of 106 decisions - 27
PittsburghSteelers−3.116% of 135Pittsburgh Steelers, go over expected -3.1 points, 16 percent of 135 decisions - 28
CincinnatiBengals−4.117% of 115Cincinnati Bengals, go over expected -4.1 points, 17 percent of 115 decisions - 29
Las VegasRaiders−5.116% of 117Las Vegas Raiders, go over expected -5.1 points, 16 percent of 117 decisions - 30
SeattleSeahawks−5.610% of 115Seattle Seahawks, go over expected -5.6 points, 10 percent of 115 decisions - 31
New EnglandPatriots−6.315% of 106New England Patriots, go over expected -6.3 points, 15 percent of 106 decisions - 32
Los AngelesRams−6.518% of 104Los Angeles Rams, go over expected -6.5 points, 18 percent of 104 decisions
Bar diverges from the league rate · under 20 decisions the figure is withheld, not guessed
2021 · every state on the field
What each choice actually returned
Mean win probability added, measured on the plays themselves — not a forecast of the road not taken. Every figure below is withheld under 25 plays, because the rare choice in a cell is rare precisely because it is unusual, and its mean is the loudest number in the row for exactly that reason.
Went for it
79321% of choices
Mean WP added+0.011
Measured on 508 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Converted59.8%
Drive ended in points41.9%
Kicked
92924% of choices
Mean WP added−0.001
Measured on 881 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Made86.3%
Punted
2,07855% of choices
Mean WP added+0.004
Measured on 2,057 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.