Gridiron · Game Center · 2022
The Fourth Down Room
Go, kick or punt — and what the win probability said.
−9.4Chiefs, the other endWent for it on 29.9% of 137 fourth downs where the rest of the league goes 19.6%.
How the baseline is built · no recommendation engine ▸
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2025.
3,906 real fourth-down decisions in the 2022 regular season. 217 more snaps are set aside — penalties that wiped the play before it resolved, and victory-formation kneels — because neither one decided anything.
Every fourth down. Every regular-season fourth down that resolved into a real decision. 32 of 32 teams clear 20 decisions in every state on the field; a grid cell under 25 decisions is withheld rather than painted.
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2025.
Painted Monday 04:00 ET · the room refreshes with the weekly play-by-play sync
Reading today’s slate…
The signature object · and the filter
The decision grid
Pooled 2018–2025, so every cell is thousands of decisions rather than a season of noise. Read the middle of the top row before trusting anything else: the league goes for it LESS at the opponent's 16-25 than at the 26-38, because 16-25 is a comfortable field goal and 26-38 is a long one. A grid that fell smoothly with field position would be a grid that had lost the plot.
League 2018–2025
| To gain | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n/aFourth and 7-10 from the Goal line is not a possible state. | |||||||
n/aFourth and 11+ from the Goal line is not a possible state. |
Numeral = go-rate · small figure = decisions in the cell · n/a = a state the field cannot produce
Go over expected · every state on the field
The aggression ladder
Raw go-rate lies about who is aggressive, because it does not know which spots a team stood in. Go over expected does: it subtracts the league's own pooled rate in the SAME cells, weighted by how often this team was there. The two orderings are not the same list, and where a team moves between them is the finding.
Decisions made
- 1
ArizonaCardinals+10.430% of 137Arizona Cardinals, go over expected 10.4 points, 30 percent of 137 decisions - 2
ClevelandBrowns+8.431% of 135Cleveland Browns, go over expected 8.4 points, 31 percent of 135 decisions - 3
PhiladelphiaEagles+6.629% of 111Philadelphia Eagles, go over expected 6.6 points, 29 percent of 111 decisions - 4
Green BayPackers+5.528% of 110Green Bay Packers, go over expected 5.5 points, 28 percent of 110 decisions - 5
ChicagoBears+5.421% of 117Chicago Bears, go over expected 5.4 points, 21 percent of 117 decisions - 6
DetroitLions+4.132% of 117Detroit Lions, go over expected 4.1 points, 32 percent of 117 decisions - 7
New YorkJets+1.819% of 145New York Jets, go over expected 1.8 points, 19 percent of 145 decisions - 8
HoustonTexans+1.718% of 143Houston Texans, go over expected 1.7 points, 18 percent of 143 decisions - 9
MiamiDolphins+1.321% of 117Miami Dolphins, go over expected 1.3 points, 21 percent of 117 decisions - 10
Los AngelesRams+1.116% of 120Los Angeles Rams, go over expected 1.1 points, 16 percent of 120 decisions - 11
SeattleSeahawks+0.717% of 121Seattle Seahawks, go over expected 0.7 points, 17 percent of 121 decisions - 12
Los AngelesChargers−0.321% of 132Los Angeles Chargers, go over expected -0.3 points, 21 percent of 132 decisions - 13
WashingtonCommanders−0.718% of 137Washington Commanders, go over expected -0.7 points, 18 percent of 137 decisions - 14
CarolinaPanthers−1.016% of 132Carolina Panthers, go over expected -1.0 points, 16 percent of 132 decisions - 15
MinnesotaVikings−1.116% of 121Minnesota Vikings, go over expected -1.1 points, 16 percent of 121 decisions - 16
TennesseeTitans−1.213% of 128Tennessee Titans, go over expected -1.2 points, 13 percent of 128 decisions - 17
AtlantaFalcons−1.416% of 110Atlanta Falcons, go over expected -1.4 points, 16 percent of 110 decisions - 18
JacksonvilleJaguars−1.423% of 117Jacksonville Jaguars, go over expected -1.4 points, 23 percent of 117 decisions - 19
IndianapolisColts−1.519% of 135Indianapolis Colts, go over expected -1.5 points, 19 percent of 135 decisions - 20
DenverBroncos−1.716% of 153Denver Broncos, go over expected -1.7 points, 16 percent of 153 decisions - 21
BuffaloBills−1.915% of 86Buffalo Bills, go over expected -1.9 points, 15 percent of 86 decisions - 22
Las VegasRaiders−1.921% of 116Las Vegas Raiders, go over expected -1.9 points, 21 percent of 116 decisions - 23
New YorkGiants−2.017% of 126New York Giants, go over expected -2.0 points, 17 percent of 126 decisions - 24
Tampa BayBuccaneers−2.420% of 142Tampa Bay Buccaneers, go over expected -2.4 points, 20 percent of 142 decisions - 25
DallasCowboys−2.916% of 116Dallas Cowboys, go over expected -2.9 points, 16 percent of 116 decisions - 26
BaltimoreRavens−5.417% of 116Baltimore Ravens, go over expected -5.4 points, 17 percent of 116 decisions - 27
San Francisco49ers−5.416% of 108San Francisco 49ers, go over expected -5.4 points, 16 percent of 108 decisions - 28
PittsburghSteelers−6.312% of 125Pittsburgh Steelers, go over expected -6.3 points, 12 percent of 125 decisions - 29
CincinnatiBengals−7.012% of 98Cincinnati Bengals, go over expected -7.0 points, 12 percent of 98 decisions - 30
New OrleansSaints−8.19% of 118New Orleans Saints, go over expected -8.1 points, 9 percent of 118 decisions - 31
New EnglandPatriots−9.410% of 126New England Patriots, go over expected -9.4 points, 10 percent of 126 decisions - 32
Kansas CityChiefs−9.413% of 91Kansas City Chiefs, go over expected -9.4 points, 13 percent of 91 decisions
Bar diverges from the league rate · under 20 decisions the figure is withheld, not guessed
2022 · every state on the field
What each choice actually returned
Mean win probability added, measured on the plays themselves — not a forecast of the road not taken. Every figure below is withheld under 25 plays, because the rare choice in a cell is rare precisely because it is unusual, and its mean is the loudest number in the row for exactly that reason.
Went for it
73519% of choices
Mean WP added+0.001
Measured on 480 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Converted56.9%
Drive ended in points41.7%
Kicked
97125% of choices
Mean WP added+0.003
Measured on 887 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Made85.9%
Punted
2,20056% of choices
Mean WP added+0.007
Measured on 2,177 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.