Gridiron · Game Center · 2023
The Fourth Down Room
Go, kick or punt — and what the win probability said.
Went for it on 30.4% of 158 fourth downs where the rest of the league goes 17.0%.
How the baseline is built · no recommendation engine ▸
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2026.
4,047 real fourth-down decisions in the 2023 regular season. 259 more snaps are set aside — penalties that wiped the play before it resolved, and victory-formation kneels — because neither one decided anything.
Every fourth down. Every regular-season fourth down that resolved into a real decision. 32 of 32 teams clear 20 decisions in every state on the field; a grid cell under 25 decisions is withheld rather than painted.
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2026.
Painted after the last game's play-by-play landed · the room repaints as each game's play-by-play lands, usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late
Reading today’s slate…
The signature object · and the filter
The decision grid
Pooled 2018–2026, so every cell is thousands of decisions rather than a season of noise. Read the middle of the top row before trusting anything else: the league goes for it LESS at the opponent's 16-25 than at the 26-38, because 16-25 is a comfortable field goal and 26-38 is a long one. A grid that fell smoothly with field position would be a grid that had lost the plot.
League 2018–2026
| To gain | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n/aFourth and 7-10 from the Goal line is not a possible state. | |||||||
n/aFourth and 11+ from the Goal line is not a possible state. |
Numeral = go-rate · small figure = decisions in the cell · n/a = a state the field cannot produce
League 2018–2026 · every state on the field
The call sheet
The bar is what coaches did. The rule across it is what this room's own win-probability means say they should have done: on every cell where all three choices cleared 25 plays, the model prefers going when going returned at least as much win probability as the better of kicking and punting, weighted by the decisions actually made there. Neither number is a forecast of a road not taken — both are measured on the plays themselves.
On fourth and 4-6 the league went for it 14.6% of the time while its own returns favoured going on 100.0% of the same 901 snaps — the widest gap on the sheet.
Thin sample: 5 qualified · too few rows to read as a set
Go over expected · every state on the field
The aggression ladder
Raw go-rate lies about who is aggressive, because it does not know which spots a team stood in. Go over expected does: it subtracts the league's own pooled rate in the SAME cells, weighted by how often this team was there. The two orderings are not the same list, and where a team moves between them is the finding.
Decisions made
- 1
CarolinaPanthers+13.430% of 158Carolina Panthers, go over expected 13.4 points, 30 percent of 158 decisions - 2
DetroitLions+13.034% of 118Detroit Lions, go over expected 13.0 points, 34 percent of 118 decisions - 3
ArizonaCardinals+11.727% of 128Arizona Cardinals, go over expected 11.7 points, 27 percent of 128 decisions - 4
PhiladelphiaEagles+6.125% of 106Philadelphia Eagles, go over expected 6.1 points, 25 percent of 106 decisions - 5
MiamiDolphins+4.923% of 103Miami Dolphins, go over expected 4.9 points, 23 percent of 103 decisions - 6
MinnesotaVikings+4.224% of 118Minnesota Vikings, go over expected 4.2 points, 24 percent of 118 decisions - 7
Green BayPackers+3.822% of 110Green Bay Packers, go over expected 3.8 points, 22 percent of 110 decisions - 8
New YorkGiants+3.523% of 162New York Giants, go over expected 3.5 points, 23 percent of 162 decisions - 9
ClevelandBrowns+3.020% of 157Cleveland Browns, go over expected 3.0 points, 20 percent of 157 decisions - 10
WashingtonCommanders+2.823% of 125Washington Commanders, go over expected 2.8 points, 23 percent of 125 decisions - 11
Los AngelesChargers+2.523% of 137Los Angeles Chargers, go over expected 2.5 points, 23 percent of 137 decisions - 12
TennesseeTitans+1.416% of 126Tennessee Titans, go over expected 1.4 points, 16 percent of 126 decisions - 13
New YorkJets+1.118% of 164New York Jets, go over expected 1.1 points, 18 percent of 164 decisions - 14
Kansas CityChiefs+0.817% of 109Kansas City Chiefs, go over expected 0.8 points, 17 percent of 109 decisions - 15
JacksonvilleJaguars+0.023% of 125Jacksonville Jaguars, go over expected 0.0 points, 23 percent of 125 decisions - 16
ChicagoBears−0.220% of 130Chicago Bears, go over expected -0.2 points, 20 percent of 130 decisions - 17
DenverBroncos−0.315% of 130Denver Broncos, go over expected -0.3 points, 15 percent of 130 decisions - 18
DallasCowboys−0.521% of 103Dallas Cowboys, go over expected -0.5 points, 21 percent of 103 decisions - 19
New EnglandPatriots−1.217% of 147New England Patriots, go over expected -1.2 points, 17 percent of 147 decisions - 20
HoustonTexans−1.316% of 134Houston Texans, go over expected -1.3 points, 16 percent of 134 decisions - 21
Tampa BayBuccaneers−1.614% of 125Tampa Bay Buccaneers, go over expected -1.6 points, 14 percent of 125 decisions - 22
Las VegasRaiders−1.718% of 128Las Vegas Raiders, go over expected -1.7 points, 18 percent of 128 decisions - 23
IndianapolisColts−2.223% of 140Indianapolis Colts, go over expected -2.2 points, 23 percent of 140 decisions - 24
AtlantaFalcons−2.315% of 127Atlanta Falcons, go over expected -2.3 points, 15 percent of 127 decisions - 25
Los AngelesRams−2.417% of 125Los Angeles Rams, go over expected -2.4 points, 17 percent of 125 decisions - 26
San Francisco49ers−2.515% of 89San Francisco 49ers, go over expected -2.5 points, 15 percent of 89 decisions - 27
CincinnatiBengals−2.615% of 125Cincinnati Bengals, go over expected -2.6 points, 15 percent of 125 decisions - 28
New OrleansSaints−3.315% of 131New Orleans Saints, go over expected -3.3 points, 15 percent of 131 decisions - 29
PittsburghSteelers−3.614% of 138Pittsburgh Steelers, go over expected -3.6 points, 14 percent of 138 decisions - 30
SeattleSeahawks−4.113% of 119Seattle Seahawks, go over expected -4.1 points, 13 percent of 119 decisions - 31
BuffaloBills−5.817% of 96Buffalo Bills, go over expected -5.8 points, 17 percent of 96 decisions - 32
BaltimoreRavens−9.411% of 114Baltimore Ravens, go over expected -9.4 points, 11 percent of 114 decisions
Bar diverges from the league rate · under 20 decisions the figure is withheld, not guessed
2023 · every state on the field
What each choice actually returned
Mean win probability added, measured on the plays themselves — not a forecast of the road not taken. Every figure below is withheld under 25 plays, because the rare choice in a cell is rare precisely because it is unusual, and its mean is the loudest number in the row for exactly that reason.
Went for it
79320% of choices
Mean WP added+0.015
Measured on 518 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Converted60.2%
Drive ended in points42.1%
Kicked
99124% of choices
Mean WP added+0.007
Measured on 930 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Made87.2%
Punted
2,26356% of choices
Mean WP added+0.004
Measured on 2,241 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.