Gridiron · Game Center · 2023
The Fourth Down Room
Go, kick or punt — and what the win probability said.
−9.4Ravens, the other endWent for it on 30.4% of 158 fourth downs where the rest of the league goes 17.0%.
How the baseline is built · no recommendation engine ▸
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2025.
4,047 real fourth-down decisions in the 2023 regular season. 259 more snaps are set aside — penalties that wiped the play before it resolved, and victory-formation kneels — because neither one decided anything.
Every fourth down. Every regular-season fourth down that resolved into a real decision. 32 of 32 teams clear 20 decisions in every state on the field; a grid cell under 25 decisions is withheld rather than painted.
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2025.
Painted Monday 04:00 ET · the room refreshes with the weekly play-by-play sync
Reading today’s slate…
The signature object · and the filter
The decision grid
Pooled 2018–2025, so every cell is thousands of decisions rather than a season of noise. Read the middle of the top row before trusting anything else: the league goes for it LESS at the opponent's 16-25 than at the 26-38, because 16-25 is a comfortable field goal and 26-38 is a long one. A grid that fell smoothly with field position would be a grid that had lost the plot.
League 2018–2025
| To gain | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n/aFourth and 7-10 from the Goal line is not a possible state. | |||||||
n/aFourth and 11+ from the Goal line is not a possible state. |
Numeral = go-rate · small figure = decisions in the cell · n/a = a state the field cannot produce
Go over expected · every state on the field
The aggression ladder
Raw go-rate lies about who is aggressive, because it does not know which spots a team stood in. Go over expected does: it subtracts the league's own pooled rate in the SAME cells, weighted by how often this team was there. The two orderings are not the same list, and where a team moves between them is the finding.
Decisions made
- 1
CarolinaPanthers+13.430% of 158Carolina Panthers, go over expected 13.4 points, 30 percent of 158 decisions - 2
DetroitLions+12.934% of 118Detroit Lions, go over expected 12.9 points, 34 percent of 118 decisions - 3
ArizonaCardinals+11.727% of 128Arizona Cardinals, go over expected 11.7 points, 27 percent of 128 decisions - 4
PhiladelphiaEagles+6.025% of 106Philadelphia Eagles, go over expected 6.0 points, 25 percent of 106 decisions - 5
MiamiDolphins+5.023% of 103Miami Dolphins, go over expected 5.0 points, 23 percent of 103 decisions - 6
MinnesotaVikings+4.224% of 118Minnesota Vikings, go over expected 4.2 points, 24 percent of 118 decisions - 7
Green BayPackers+3.822% of 110Green Bay Packers, go over expected 3.8 points, 22 percent of 110 decisions - 8
New YorkGiants+3.523% of 162New York Giants, go over expected 3.5 points, 23 percent of 162 decisions - 9
ClevelandBrowns+3.020% of 157Cleveland Browns, go over expected 3.0 points, 20 percent of 157 decisions - 10
WashingtonCommanders+2.823% of 125Washington Commanders, go over expected 2.8 points, 23 percent of 125 decisions - 11
Los AngelesChargers+2.523% of 137Los Angeles Chargers, go over expected 2.5 points, 23 percent of 137 decisions - 12
TennesseeTitans+1.416% of 126Tennessee Titans, go over expected 1.4 points, 16 percent of 126 decisions - 13
New YorkJets+1.118% of 164New York Jets, go over expected 1.1 points, 18 percent of 164 decisions - 14
Kansas CityChiefs+0.817% of 109Kansas City Chiefs, go over expected 0.8 points, 17 percent of 109 decisions - 15
JacksonvilleJaguars−0.023% of 125Jacksonville Jaguars, go over expected -0.0 points, 23 percent of 125 decisions - 16
ChicagoBears−0.220% of 130Chicago Bears, go over expected -0.2 points, 20 percent of 130 decisions - 17
DenverBroncos−0.315% of 130Denver Broncos, go over expected -0.3 points, 15 percent of 130 decisions - 18
DallasCowboys−0.521% of 103Dallas Cowboys, go over expected -0.5 points, 21 percent of 103 decisions - 19
New EnglandPatriots−1.217% of 147New England Patriots, go over expected -1.2 points, 17 percent of 147 decisions - 20
HoustonTexans−1.216% of 134Houston Texans, go over expected -1.2 points, 16 percent of 134 decisions - 21
Tampa BayBuccaneers−1.714% of 125Tampa Bay Buccaneers, go over expected -1.7 points, 14 percent of 125 decisions - 22
Las VegasRaiders−1.718% of 128Las Vegas Raiders, go over expected -1.7 points, 18 percent of 128 decisions - 23
IndianapolisColts−2.223% of 140Indianapolis Colts, go over expected -2.2 points, 23 percent of 140 decisions - 24
AtlantaFalcons−2.315% of 127Atlanta Falcons, go over expected -2.3 points, 15 percent of 127 decisions - 25
Los AngelesRams−2.417% of 125Los Angeles Rams, go over expected -2.4 points, 17 percent of 125 decisions - 26
San Francisco49ers−2.415% of 89San Francisco 49ers, go over expected -2.4 points, 15 percent of 89 decisions - 27
CincinnatiBengals−2.715% of 125Cincinnati Bengals, go over expected -2.7 points, 15 percent of 125 decisions - 28
New OrleansSaints−3.315% of 131New Orleans Saints, go over expected -3.3 points, 15 percent of 131 decisions - 29
PittsburghSteelers−3.614% of 138Pittsburgh Steelers, go over expected -3.6 points, 14 percent of 138 decisions - 30
SeattleSeahawks−4.113% of 119Seattle Seahawks, go over expected -4.1 points, 13 percent of 119 decisions - 31
BuffaloBills−5.817% of 96Buffalo Bills, go over expected -5.8 points, 17 percent of 96 decisions - 32
BaltimoreRavens−9.411% of 114Baltimore Ravens, go over expected -9.4 points, 11 percent of 114 decisions
Bar diverges from the league rate · under 20 decisions the figure is withheld, not guessed
2023 · every state on the field
What each choice actually returned
Mean win probability added, measured on the plays themselves — not a forecast of the road not taken. Every figure below is withheld under 25 plays, because the rare choice in a cell is rare precisely because it is unusual, and its mean is the loudest number in the row for exactly that reason.
Went for it
79320% of choices
Mean WP added+0.015
Measured on 518 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Converted60.2%
Drive ended in points42.1%
Kicked
99124% of choices
Mean WP added+0.007
Measured on 930 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Made87.2%
Punted
2,26356% of choices
Mean WP added+0.004
Measured on 2,241 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.