Gridiron · Game Center · 2024
The Fourth Down Room
Go, kick or punt — and what the win probability said.
−8.349ers, the other endWent for it on 32.0% of 103 fourth downs where the rest of the league goes 22.0%.
How the baseline is built · no recommendation engine ▸
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2025.
3,827 real fourth-down decisions in the 2024 regular season. 267 more snaps are set aside — penalties that wiped the play before it resolved, and victory-formation kneels — because neither one decided anything.
Every fourth down. Every regular-season fourth down that resolved into a real decision. 32 of 32 teams clear 20 decisions in every state on the field; a grid cell under 25 decisions is withheld rather than painted.
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2025.
Painted Monday 04:00 ET · the room refreshes with the weekly play-by-play sync
Reading today’s slate…
The signature object · and the filter
The decision grid
Pooled 2018–2025, so every cell is thousands of decisions rather than a season of noise. Read the middle of the top row before trusting anything else: the league goes for it LESS at the opponent's 16-25 than at the 26-38, because 16-25 is a comfortable field goal and 26-38 is a long one. A grid that fell smoothly with field position would be a grid that had lost the plot.
League 2018–2025
| To gain | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n/aFourth and 7-10 from the Goal line is not a possible state. | |||||||
n/aFourth and 11+ from the Goal line is not a possible state. |
Numeral = go-rate · small figure = decisions in the cell · n/a = a state the field cannot produce
Go over expected · every state on the field
The aggression ladder
Raw go-rate lies about who is aggressive, because it does not know which spots a team stood in. Go over expected does: it subtracts the league's own pooled rate in the SAME cells, weighted by how often this team was there. The two orderings are not the same list, and where a team moves between them is the finding.
Decisions made
- 1
DetroitLions+10.132% of 103Detroit Lions, go over expected 10.1 points, 32 percent of 103 decisions - 2
ChicagoBears+7.427% of 142Chicago Bears, go over expected 7.4 points, 27 percent of 142 decisions - 3
ClevelandBrowns+7.228% of 159Cleveland Browns, go over expected 7.2 points, 28 percent of 159 decisions - 4
DallasCowboys+6.321% of 133Dallas Cowboys, go over expected 6.3 points, 21 percent of 133 decisions - 5
CarolinaPanthers+6.124% of 127Carolina Panthers, go over expected 6.1 points, 24 percent of 127 decisions - 6
AtlantaFalcons+6.027% of 116Atlanta Falcons, go over expected 6.0 points, 27 percent of 116 decisions - 7
New YorkGiants+5.926% of 140New York Giants, go over expected 5.9 points, 26 percent of 140 decisions - 8
MiamiDolphins+3.825% of 125Miami Dolphins, go over expected 3.8 points, 25 percent of 125 decisions - 9
IndianapolisColts+3.321% of 131Indianapolis Colts, go over expected 3.3 points, 21 percent of 131 decisions - 10
New EnglandPatriots+2.119% of 125New England Patriots, go over expected 2.1 points, 19 percent of 125 decisions - 11
JacksonvilleJaguars+1.822% of 119Jacksonville Jaguars, go over expected 1.8 points, 22 percent of 119 decisions - 12
New YorkJets+1.721% of 115New York Jets, go over expected 1.7 points, 21 percent of 115 decisions - 13
New OrleansSaints+1.521% of 131New Orleans Saints, go over expected 1.5 points, 21 percent of 131 decisions - 14
TennesseeTitans+0.819% of 123Tennessee Titans, go over expected 0.8 points, 19 percent of 123 decisions - 15
Las VegasRaiders−0.219% of 129Las Vegas Raiders, go over expected -0.2 points, 19 percent of 129 decisions - 16
PhiladelphiaEagles−0.423% of 117Philadelphia Eagles, go over expected -0.4 points, 23 percent of 117 decisions - 17
WashingtonCommanders−0.521% of 111Washington Commanders, go over expected -0.5 points, 21 percent of 111 decisions - 18
BuffaloBills−0.821% of 105Buffalo Bills, go over expected -0.8 points, 21 percent of 105 decisions - 19
DenverBroncos−1.417% of 126Denver Broncos, go over expected -1.4 points, 17 percent of 126 decisions - 20
CincinnatiBengals−1.718% of 104Cincinnati Bengals, go over expected -1.7 points, 18 percent of 104 decisions - 21
BaltimoreRavens−2.316% of 96Baltimore Ravens, go over expected -2.3 points, 16 percent of 96 decisions - 22
ArizonaCardinals−2.517% of 103Arizona Cardinals, go over expected -2.5 points, 17 percent of 103 decisions - 23
SeattleSeahawks−3.216% of 121Seattle Seahawks, go over expected -3.2 points, 16 percent of 121 decisions - 24
Los AngelesRams−3.321% of 117Los Angeles Rams, go over expected -3.3 points, 21 percent of 117 decisions - 25
Green BayPackers−3.615% of 106Green Bay Packers, go over expected -3.6 points, 15 percent of 106 decisions - 26
Tampa BayBuccaneers−4.615% of 94Tampa Bay Buccaneers, go over expected -4.6 points, 15 percent of 94 decisions - 27
HoustonTexans−4.614% of 132Houston Texans, go over expected -4.6 points, 14 percent of 132 decisions - 28
PittsburghSteelers−4.714% of 126Pittsburgh Steelers, go over expected -4.7 points, 14 percent of 126 decisions - 29
Los AngelesChargers−5.913% of 126Los Angeles Chargers, go over expected -5.9 points, 13 percent of 126 decisions - 30
MinnesotaVikings−7.312% of 109Minnesota Vikings, go over expected -7.3 points, 12 percent of 109 decisions - 31
Kansas CityChiefs−7.415% of 112Kansas City Chiefs, go over expected -7.4 points, 15 percent of 112 decisions - 32
San Francisco49ers−8.315% of 104San Francisco 49ers, go over expected -8.3 points, 15 percent of 104 decisions
Bar diverges from the league rate · under 20 decisions the figure is withheld, not guessed
2024 · every state on the field
What each choice actually returned
Mean win probability added, measured on the plays themselves — not a forecast of the road not taken. Every figure below is withheld under 25 plays, because the rare choice in a cell is rare precisely because it is unusual, and its mean is the loudest number in the row for exactly that reason.
Went for it
76520% of choices
Mean WP added+0.017
Measured on 517 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Converted65.6%
Drive ended in points47.0%
Kicked
1,01627% of choices
Mean WP added+0.000
Measured on 956 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Made85.0%
Punted
2,04653% of choices
Mean WP added+0.001
Measured on 2,036 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.