Gridiron · Game Center · 2025
The Fourth Down Room
Go, kick or punt — and what the win probability said.
−12.2Seahawks, the other endWent for it on 31.5% of 124 fourth downs where the rest of the league goes 19.2%.
How the baseline is built · no recommendation engine ▸
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2025.
3,793 real fourth-down decisions in the 2025 regular season. 288 more snaps are set aside — penalties that wiped the play before it resolved, and victory-formation kneels — because neither one decided anything.
Every fourth down. Every regular-season fourth down that resolved into a real decision. 32 of 32 teams clear 20 decisions in every state on the field; a grid cell under 25 decisions is withheld rather than painted.
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2025.
Painted Monday 04:00 ET · the room refreshes with the weekly play-by-play sync
Reading today’s slate…
The signature object · and the filter
The decision grid
Pooled 2018–2025, so every cell is thousands of decisions rather than a season of noise. Read the middle of the top row before trusting anything else: the league goes for it LESS at the opponent's 16-25 than at the 26-38, because 16-25 is a comfortable field goal and 26-38 is a long one. A grid that fell smoothly with field position would be a grid that had lost the plot.
League 2018–2025
| To gain | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n/aFourth and 7-10 from the Goal line is not a possible state. | |||||||
n/aFourth and 11+ from the Goal line is not a possible state. |
Numeral = go-rate · small figure = decisions in the cell · n/a = a state the field cannot produce
Go over expected · every state on the field
The aggression ladder
Raw go-rate lies about who is aggressive, because it does not know which spots a team stood in. Go over expected does: it subtracts the league's own pooled rate in the SAME cells, weighted by how often this team was there. The two orderings are not the same list, and where a team moves between them is the finding.
Decisions made
- 1
New YorkGiants+12.231% of 124New York Giants, go over expected 12.2 points, 31 percent of 124 decisions - 2
New YorkJets+11.129% of 139New York Jets, go over expected 11.1 points, 29 percent of 139 decisions - 3
ArizonaCardinals+9.124% of 117Arizona Cardinals, go over expected 9.1 points, 24 percent of 117 decisions - 4
CarolinaPanthers+8.232% of 121Carolina Panthers, go over expected 8.2 points, 32 percent of 121 decisions - 5
DallasCowboys+8.230% of 112Dallas Cowboys, go over expected 8.2 points, 30 percent of 112 decisions - 6
BuffaloBills+7.832% of 101Buffalo Bills, go over expected 7.8 points, 32 percent of 101 decisions - 7
BaltimoreRavens+7.323% of 108Baltimore Ravens, go over expected 7.3 points, 23 percent of 108 decisions - 8
Las VegasRaiders+6.025% of 130Las Vegas Raiders, go over expected 6.0 points, 25 percent of 130 decisions - 9
DetroitLions+6.027% of 116Detroit Lions, go over expected 6.0 points, 27 percent of 116 decisions - 10
TennesseeTitans+5.524% of 145Tennessee Titans, go over expected 5.5 points, 24 percent of 145 decisions - 11
New OrleansSaints+4.226% of 130New Orleans Saints, go over expected 4.2 points, 26 percent of 130 decisions - 12
WashingtonCommanders+3.825% of 105Washington Commanders, go over expected 3.8 points, 25 percent of 105 decisions - 13
Green BayPackers+3.825% of 102Green Bay Packers, go over expected 3.8 points, 25 percent of 102 decisions - 14
MiamiDolphins+3.420% of 113Miami Dolphins, go over expected 3.4 points, 20 percent of 113 decisions - 15
Tampa BayBuccaneers+3.423% of 126Tampa Bay Buccaneers, go over expected 3.4 points, 23 percent of 126 decisions - 16
ClevelandBrowns+3.120% of 147Cleveland Browns, go over expected 3.1 points, 20 percent of 147 decisions - 17
AtlantaFalcons+2.922% of 129Atlanta Falcons, go over expected 2.9 points, 22 percent of 129 decisions - 18
Kansas CityChiefs+2.726% of 123Kansas City Chiefs, go over expected 2.7 points, 26 percent of 123 decisions - 19
PhiladelphiaEagles+1.817% of 117Philadelphia Eagles, go over expected 1.8 points, 17 percent of 117 decisions - 20
New EnglandPatriots+1.525% of 102New England Patriots, go over expected 1.5 points, 25 percent of 102 decisions - 21
Los AngelesRams+1.329% of 105Los Angeles Rams, go over expected 1.3 points, 29 percent of 105 decisions - 22
IndianapolisColts+1.226% of 103Indianapolis Colts, go over expected 1.2 points, 26 percent of 103 decisions - 23
ChicagoBears+1.023% of 126Chicago Bears, go over expected 1.0 points, 23 percent of 126 decisions - 24
MinnesotaVikings+0.420% of 122Minnesota Vikings, go over expected 0.4 points, 20 percent of 122 decisions - 25
JacksonvilleJaguars+0.325% of 118Jacksonville Jaguars, go over expected 0.3 points, 25 percent of 118 decisions - 26
CincinnatiBengals−0.318% of 111Cincinnati Bengals, go over expected -0.3 points, 18 percent of 111 decisions - 27
PittsburghSteelers−1.120% of 116Pittsburgh Steelers, go over expected -1.1 points, 20 percent of 116 decisions - 28
Los AngelesChargers−1.317% of 119Los Angeles Chargers, go over expected -1.3 points, 17 percent of 119 decisions - 29
San Francisco49ers−1.923% of 97San Francisco 49ers, go over expected -1.9 points, 23 percent of 97 decisions - 30
DenverBroncos−3.916% of 124Denver Broncos, go over expected -3.9 points, 16 percent of 124 decisions - 31
HoustonTexans−6.814% of 139Houston Texans, go over expected -6.8 points, 14 percent of 139 decisions - 32
SeattleSeahawks−12.211% of 106Seattle Seahawks, go over expected -12.2 points, 11 percent of 106 decisions
Bar diverges from the league rate · under 20 decisions the figure is withheld, not guessed
2025 · every state on the field
What each choice actually returned
Mean win probability added, measured on the plays themselves — not a forecast of the road not taken. Every figure below is withheld under 25 plays, because the rare choice in a cell is rare precisely because it is unusual, and its mean is the loudest number in the row for exactly that reason.
Went for it
88223% of choices
Mean WP added+0.011
Measured on 618 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Converted60.8%
Drive ended in points43.5%
Kicked
97826% of choices
Mean WP added+0.005
Measured on 893 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Made86.9%
Punted
1,93351% of choices
Mean WP added+0.002
Measured on 1,907 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.