Gridiron · Game Center · 2026
The Fourth Down Room
Go, kick or punt — and what the win probability said.
Went for it on 30.6% of 36 fourth downs where the rest of the league goes 18.8%.
How the baseline is built · no recommendation engine ▸
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2026.
1,339 real fourth-down decisions in the first 7 weeks of the 2026 regular season. 120 more snaps are set aside — penalties that wiped the play before it resolved, and victory-formation kneels — because neither one decided anything.
Every fourth down. Every regular-season fourth down that resolved into a real decision. 32 of 32 teams clear 20 decisions in every state on the field; a grid cell under 25 decisions is withheld rather than painted.
There is no recommendation engine here. Scoring the choice a coach did NOT make would mean inventing a win-probability figure for a play that never happened, so the baseline is the league’s own revealed behaviour instead — what all 32 teams actually did from the same spot, 2018–2026.
Painted after the last game's play-by-play landed · the room repaints as each game's play-by-play lands, usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late
Reading today’s slate…
The signature object · and the filter
The decision grid
Pooled 2018–2026, so every cell is thousands of decisions rather than a season of noise. Read the middle of the top row before trusting anything else: the league goes for it LESS at the opponent's 16-25 than at the 26-38, because 16-25 is a comfortable field goal and 26-38 is a long one. A grid that fell smoothly with field position would be a grid that had lost the plot.
League 2018–2026
| To gain | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n/aFourth and 7-10 from the Goal line is not a possible state. | |||||||
n/aFourth and 11+ from the Goal line is not a possible state. |
Numeral = go-rate · small figure = decisions in the cell · n/a = a state the field cannot produce
League 2018–2026 · every state on the field
The call sheet
The bar is what coaches did. The rule across it is what this room's own win-probability means say they should have done: on every cell where all three choices cleared 25 plays, the model prefers going when going returned at least as much win probability as the better of kicking and punting, weighted by the decisions actually made there. Neither number is a forecast of a road not taken — both are measured on the plays themselves.
On fourth and 4-6 the league went for it 14.6% of the time while its own returns favoured going on 100.0% of the same 901 snaps — the widest gap on the sheet.
Thin sample: 5 qualified · too few rows to read as a set
Go over expected · every state on the field
The aggression ladder
Raw go-rate lies about who is aggressive, because it does not know which spots a team stood in. Go over expected does: it subtracts the league's own pooled rate in the SAME cells, weighted by how often this team was there. The two orderings are not the same list, and where a team moves between them is the finding.
Decisions made
- 1
DetroitLions+11.731% of 36Detroit Lions, go over expected 11.7 points, 31 percent of 36 decisions - 2
Los AngelesChargers+10.424% of 46Los Angeles Chargers, go over expected 10.4 points, 24 percent of 46 decisions - 3
DallasCowboys+7.324% of 33Dallas Cowboys, go over expected 7.3 points, 24 percent of 33 decisions - 4
New EnglandPatriots+6.926% of 43New England Patriots, go over expected 6.9 points, 26 percent of 43 decisions - 5
MiamiDolphins+6.622% of 32Miami Dolphins, go over expected 6.6 points, 22 percent of 32 decisions - 6
ChicagoBears+6.133% of 51Chicago Bears, go over expected 6.1 points, 33 percent of 51 decisions - 7
New OrleansSaints+5.828% of 46New Orleans Saints, go over expected 5.8 points, 28 percent of 46 decisions - 8
PhiladelphiaEagles+5.621% of 48Philadelphia Eagles, go over expected 5.6 points, 21 percent of 48 decisions - 9
Los AngelesRams+5.227% of 37Los Angeles Rams, go over expected 5.2 points, 27 percent of 37 decisions - 10
CarolinaPanthers+3.924% of 38Carolina Panthers, go over expected 3.9 points, 24 percent of 38 decisions - 11
Tampa BayBuccaneers+2.818% of 50Tampa Bay Buccaneers, go over expected 2.8 points, 18 percent of 50 decisions - 12
ClevelandBrowns+2.117% of 52Cleveland Browns, go over expected 2.1 points, 17 percent of 52 decisions - 13
IndianapolisColts+1.730% of 47Indianapolis Colts, go over expected 1.7 points, 30 percent of 47 decisions - 14
Green BayPackers+1.623% of 47Green Bay Packers, go over expected 1.6 points, 23 percent of 47 decisions - 15
WashingtonCommanders+1.620% of 50Washington Commanders, go over expected 1.6 points, 20 percent of 50 decisions - 16
Las VegasRaiders+0.219% of 42Las Vegas Raiders, go over expected 0.2 points, 19 percent of 42 decisions - 17
AtlantaFalcons−1.715% of 39Atlanta Falcons, go over expected -1.7 points, 15 percent of 39 decisions - 18
New YorkGiants−2.414% of 44New York Giants, go over expected -2.4 points, 14 percent of 44 decisions - 19
CincinnatiBengals−2.613% of 30Cincinnati Bengals, go over expected -2.6 points, 13 percent of 30 decisions - 20
TennesseeTitans−2.714% of 44Tennessee Titans, go over expected -2.7 points, 14 percent of 44 decisions - 21
BuffaloBills−3.215% of 27Buffalo Bills, go over expected -3.2 points, 15 percent of 27 decisions - 22
SeattleSeahawks−3.516% of 44Seattle Seahawks, go over expected -3.5 points, 16 percent of 44 decisions - 23
ArizonaCardinals−4.415% of 48Arizona Cardinals, go over expected -4.4 points, 15 percent of 48 decisions - 24
Kansas CityChiefs−4.424% of 33Kansas City Chiefs, go over expected -4.4 points, 24 percent of 33 decisions - 25
JacksonvilleJaguars−4.915% of 34Jacksonville Jaguars, go over expected -4.9 points, 15 percent of 34 decisions - 26
PittsburghSteelers−5.613% of 47Pittsburgh Steelers, go over expected -5.6 points, 13 percent of 47 decisions - 27
BaltimoreRavens−6.112% of 41Baltimore Ravens, go over expected -6.1 points, 12 percent of 41 decisions - 28
New YorkJets−6.713% of 45New York Jets, go over expected -6.7 points, 13 percent of 45 decisions - 29
HoustonTexans−7.916% of 44Houston Texans, go over expected -7.9 points, 16 percent of 44 decisions - 30
DenverBroncos−8.38% of 48Denver Broncos, go over expected -8.3 points, 8 percent of 48 decisions - 31
MinnesotaVikings−8.97% of 42Minnesota Vikings, go over expected -8.9 points, 7 percent of 42 decisions - 32
San Francisco49ers−10.613% of 31San Francisco 49ers, go over expected -10.6 points, 13 percent of 31 decisions
Bar diverges from the league rate · under 20 decisions the figure is withheld, not guessed
2026 · every state on the field
What each choice actually returned
Mean win probability added, measured on the plays themselves — not a forecast of the road not taken. Every figure below is withheld under 25 plays, because the rare choice in a cell is rare precisely because it is unusual, and its mean is the loudest number in the row for exactly that reason.
Went for it
25619% of choices
Mean WP added+0.014
Measured on 162 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Converted60.5%
Drive ended in points48.1%
Kicked
35927% of choices
Mean WP added+0.016
Measured on 317 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.
Made85.8%
Punted
72454% of choices
Mean WP added+0.006
Measured on 723 of them — the rest sit in cells too thin to average.