The second half of the MLB season is only a few games old, but several pitchers are already separating themselves from the pack.
The surface numbers have been impressive.
The underlying metrics are even better.
Using FanGraphs data from the opening week after the All-Star break, these four pitchers rank among baseball's best in xFIP while carrying BABIPs above .300 . That's an important combination. BABIP often fluctuates over small samples, and when elite strikeout pitchers are still allowing an unusually high percentage of balls in play to fall for hits, it can signal that even better results are on the horizon.
No one is saying these pitchers are guaranteed to improve simply because of BABIP. But when elite swing-and-miss stuff, outstanding command, and strong estimators like xFIP and FIP all point in the same direction, fantasy managers should pay attention.
Here are four arms whose best baseball may still be ahead of them.
Cam Schlittler
Few pitchers have been as dominant to begin the second half as Cam Schlittler.
Through his first 11.2 innings after the All-Star break, Schlittler owns a 2.31 ERA , 0.98 xFIP , 0.20 FIP , and an elite 43.5% strikeout rate . His combination of swing-and-miss stuff and command has allowed him to overwhelm opposing hitters despite making only a handful of starts.
The statistic that stands out most is his .375 BABIP , the highest among the top five pitchers in xFIP over this stretch. That's an unusually high number for any pitcher, especially one generating this many strikeouts. When hitters continue finding holes despite limited quality contact, ERA can stay artificially elevated even while the underlying process remains dominant.