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These four pitchers already rank among the league leaders in xFIP, but elevated BABIPs suggest their best numbers may still be ahead.
The second half of the MLB season is only a few games old, but several pitchers are already separating themselves from the pack.
The surface numbers have been impressive.
The underlying metrics are even better.
Using FanGraphs data from the opening week after the All-Star break, these four pitchers rank among baseball's best in xFIP while carrying BABIPs above .300 . That's an important combination. BABIP often fluctuates over small samples, and when elite strikeout pitchers are still allowing an unusually high percentage of balls in play to fall for hits, it can signal that even better results are on the horizon.
No one is saying these pitchers are guaranteed to improve simply because of BABIP. But when elite swing-and-miss stuff, outstanding command, and strong estimators like xFIP and FIP all point in the same direction, fantasy managers should pay attention.
Here are four arms whose best baseball may still be ahead of them.
Cam Schlittler
Few pitchers have been as dominant to begin the second half as Cam Schlittler.
Through his first 11.2 innings after the All-Star break, Schlittler owns a 2.31 ERA , 0.98 xFIP , 0.20 FIP , and an elite 43.5% strikeout rate . His combination of swing-and-miss stuff and command has allowed him to overwhelm opposing hitters despite making only a handful of starts.
The statistic that stands out most is his .375 BABIP , the highest among the top five pitchers in xFIP over this stretch. That's an unusually high number for any pitcher, especially one generating this many strikeouts. When hitters continue finding holes despite limited quality contact, ERA can stay artificially elevated even while the underlying process remains dominant.
If that BABIP begins to normalize over the coming weeks, Schlittler has all the ingredients to become one of fantasy baseball's biggest second-half breakouts. The strikeouts are already there. The command is already there. The luck simply hasn't caught up yet.
Will Dion
Will Dion may be the biggest positive regression candidate on this list.
His 2.84 ERA doesn't immediately jump off the page, but nearly every advanced metric says he's pitched significantly better than that. Dion owns a 0.60 xFIP , 1.69 FIP , and a 47.8% strikeout rate , putting him among the most dominant pitchers in baseball since play resumed.
Like Schlittler, Dion has been hurt by poor fortune on balls in play. Opponents own a .364 BABIP against him despite his elite ability to miss bats. That's a difficult combination to sustain over a larger sample, particularly for pitchers generating strikeouts at this rate.
Fantasy managers often chase ERA, but Dion's underlying profile suggests he's a pitcher worth targeting before the results fully catch up. If the BABIP starts moving closer to league average, his ERA could drop in a hurry.
Robby Ahlstrom
It's difficult to improve on a 0.00 ERA , but Robby Ahlstrom's underlying profile suggests there's still another level available.
The Texas right-hander has paired that spotless ERA with a 0.87 xFIP , 0.30 FIP , and an outstanding 47.4% strikeout rate . He has consistently attacked hitters, generated swings and misses, and limited damaging contact.
What's remarkable is that he's done all of that while carrying a .333 BABIP . Even without favorable batted-ball luck, Ahlstrom has completely shut down opposing lineups. If that BABIP begins to normalize, maintaining elite run prevention becomes much more sustainable over the remainder of the season.
Ahlstrom may not receive the same national attention as some of the game's bigger names, but the advanced metrics suggest his dominant start has been earned—and could continue.
Jacob Misiorowski
Jacob Misiorowski continues to look every bit like the future ace scouts envisioned.
The Brewers' flamethrower has opened the second half with a 1.00 ERA , 0.46 xFIP , 1.22 FIP , and an absurd 52.9% strikeout rate . Few pitchers in baseball possess his combination of velocity, movement, and swing-and-miss ability.
Unlike some pitchers who rely heavily on favorable luck early in the season, Misiorowski's .308 BABIP sits much closer to league average. While it isn't as inflated as Dion's or Schlittler's, it also isn't artificially suppressing his ERA. His dominance has largely been the product of overpowering stuff rather than fortunate outcomes.
When a pitcher is striking out more than half the hitters he faces while posting one of baseball's lowest xFIPs, fantasy managers don't need much convincing. Misiorowski already looks like a frontline starter, and there's every reason to believe he'll continue pitching like one throughout the second half.
Final Thoughts
The second half is still in its infancy, but these four pitchers have already shown why advanced metrics matter.
Cam Schlittler (.375 BABIP), Will Dion (.364), Robby Ahlstrom (.333), and Jacob Misiorowski (.308) all rank among the league leaders in xFIP while carrying BABIPs that suggest their results may not fully reflect how well they've pitched.
That doesn't guarantee lower ERAs moving forward. Baseball is rarely that simple.
But when elite strikeout rates, outstanding xFIP marks, and elevated BABIPs all appear together, history suggests those are pitchers fantasy managers should be buying—not selling.
The rest of your league will notice if the ERA starts dropping.
