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Model derivatives · free · runs in your browser

Alternate Line Calculator

Alternate lines can be priced from the main market alone: strip the vig from the posted line, fit a Poisson rate to the fair probability, and the model then prices every other line up and down the ladder.

Fitted rate λ (from the devigged main line)2.674
Derived ladder — fair prices per line
0.5O 93.1%-1350+1350
1.5O 74.7%-295+295
2.5O 50.0%-100+100
3.5O 28.0%+257-257
4.5O 13.3%+650-650
5.5O 5.5%+1729-1729
LineOver probFair overFair under

A Poisson derivative of the market: λ is fitted so the model matches the devigged main line (50.0%over), then read up and down the ladder. Honest for count props; compare any book’s alternate price against these fair numbers.

Show the math
solve λ: 1 − CDF(⌊main⌋, λ) = p_fair(over)λ = 2.674
rung fair = P(over)/(P(over)+P(under)) — push excluded

The Scout’s Notebook

How are alternate lines priced?

Alternate lines can be priced from the main market alone: strip the vig from the posted line, fit a Poisson rate to the fair probability, and the model then prices every other line up and down the ladder.

How it works & common questions

It is a market-implied derivative, honest for count props: compare any book's alternate quote against the derived fair price to see which rungs are shaded and which are soft.

How it works

  1. Enter the main line and both prices. The posted over/under and the two sides' odds.
  2. The model fits λ. Solved so the Poisson over-probability equals the devigged market number.
  3. Read the ladder. Fair prices per alternate line — grade a book's alt quote against its rung.

Why do books shade alternate lines?

Because alternate ladders get less two-way action than the main line, books protect themselves with wider margins the further a rung sits from the market number. A derived fair ladder exposes exactly how much extra hold each rung carries.

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