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Half-Point Calculator

A half point is worth exactly what the market charges for it: devig both lines and the difference in fair win probability is the hook's market price — no push charts or invented key-number rates required.

Market price of the move+2.5%win-prob pointsFair -100 at the base line → -111 at the moved line
Devigged win prob — base line50.00%
Devigged win prob — moved line52.54%
EV of the moved-line quote vs its fair-4.40%

Both lines are devigged with the power method; the probability shift is what the market itself says the half point is worth — no invented push tables, no fabricated key-number rates.

Show the math
shift = p_fair(moved) − p_fair(base)52.54% − 50.00% = +2.54 pts

The Scout’s Notebook

What is a half point worth in betting?

A half point is worth exactly what the market charges for it: devig both lines and the difference in fair win probability is the hook's market price — no push charts or invented key-number rates required.

How it works & common questions

The same method prices buying the hook, selling it, or comparing a book's alternate line against the main market — it is the market-implied answer, which is the only honest one available without empirical push data.

How it works

  1. Enter the base line's two prices. Your side and the other side at the current number.
  2. Enter the moved line's two prices. The same market a half point up or down.
  3. Read the shift. Fair win probability at each line — the difference is what the half point is worth.

Is buying a half point ever worth it?

Only when the price charged is smaller than the market-implied probability gain — which mostly happens around football's key numbers 3 and 7, where a half point crosses real mass. Devigging both lines, as this calculator does, tells you what the market itself thinks the hook is worth.

Dynatyze Betting is analytics and education for people 21 and over. It is not a sportsbook: no wager is ever placed on Dynatyze — the tools help you find and price the best available bet elsewhere. If gambling stops being fun, help is free and confidential at 1-800-GAMBLER.