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Teaser Calculator

A teaser moves every leg's line in your favor in exchange for a worse payout, and the honest test is the break-even rate: at −120 for two legs, each teased leg must cover 73.9% of the time — (1/1.833)^(1/2) — just to break even.

Break-even win rate — every teased leg73.9%Each of the 2 legs must cover more than 73.9% of the time at -120 just to break even

Whether a teased line clears the break-even rate is an empirical question about key numbers — this calculator states the hurdle honestly; it does not invent cover rates.

Show the math
p* = (1/decimal)^(1/n)(1/1.8333)^(1/2) = 73.85%

The Scout’s Notebook

When is a teaser worth betting?

A teaser moves every leg's line in your favor in exchange for a worse payout, and the honest test is the break-even rate: at −120 for two legs, each teased leg must cover 73.9% of the time — (1/1.833)^(1/2) — just to break even.

How it works & common questions

Whether a teased line actually clears the hurdle is an empirical question about key numbers (crossing 3 and 7 in football matters; teasing through empty numbers does not). This tool states the math honestly and does not invent cover rates.

How it works

  1. Enter the teaser payout and leg count. The quoted price for your book's teaser at that size.
  2. Read the break-even rate. The per-leg cover rate the ticket demands: p* = (1/decimal)^(1/n).
  3. Test your own estimates. Add per-leg probabilities to see the ticket's EV under your numbers.

What win rate does a two-leg teaser at −120 require?

Each leg must win 73.9% of the time for the ticket to break even, because both legs must cover and (1/1.8333) to the power 1/2 is 0.739. Teased legs that cross key numbers are the classic candidates to clear that bar.

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