Expected Value Calculator
Give your price and a fair probability and this becomes the expected value, in your own money.
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Give your price and a fair probability and this becomes the expected value, in your own money.
The Scout’s Notebook
A bet's expected value is EV% = (fair probability × decimal odds − 1) × 100 — positive when the price pays more than the outcome's true chance demands, negative when it pays less.
The outcome bars make the asymmetry tangible: what you win at the fair rate, what you lose the rest of the time, and whether the balance favors you.
Consistently finding +2% to +5% EV is strong in liquid markets, and anything above that deserves skepticism about the fair probability behind it. The EV is only as honest as the probability you feed it.
Learn more: Expected Value & De-Vigging (guide)
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