The median arb lived 2m 17s and locked 1.29% of the stake.
01 · What an arb is
Two books, two sides, one locked return
When two books disagree enough, you can bet both sides and collect the same amount whichever side wins. Over +105 at one book and under −102 at another is one. Split $1,000 so both legs return the same, and either result pays $1,007.30: a locked $7.30, or 0.73%.
The arithmetic is the easy part. The hard part is that books fix their mistakes, and the moment one of the two prices moves, the lock is gone. So the useful question is not whether arbs exist. It is how long they stay.
Lock it: splitting $1,000.00 across +105 and −102 locks +$7.30 whichever side wins.
What you keep at every result
The two prices add to 99.28%, under 100%, so $1,000.00 returns $1,007.30 whichever side lands.
- Combined implied probability
- 99.28%
- Locked margin on the total
- 0.73%
02 · How long they last
Most arbs were gone in a couple of minutes
Our scanner checks every book it follows about once a minute and logs each arb from the first scan that sees it to the last. It first saw 174,084 arbs between 2026-09-30 and 2026-10-27 that have since ended. The median one lasted 2m 17s. A quarter lasted longer than 14m 40s, and one in ten longer than 1h 21m.
Median life
2m 17s
Gone in a minute
33.0%
Gone in 5 minutes
64.3%
An hour or more
12.0%
| Lasted | Arbs | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Under a minute | 57,453 | 33.0% |
| 1 to 5 minutes | 54,443 | 31.3% |
| 5 to 60 minutes | 41,213 | 23.7% |
| An hour or more | 20,975 | 12.0% |
97.1% ended because a price moved. The other 2.9% ended because a book pulled the market altogether, usually around news or the start of play.
03 · By sport and timing
Live arbs die fastest
| Sport | Arbs | Median life | Locked |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | 80,541 | 2m 16s | 1.26% |
| NFL | 57,888 | 2m 1s | 1.36% |
| MLB | 19,709 | 2m 2s | 1.54% |
| College football | 15,946 | 3m 38s | 1.12% |
Timing matters more than sport. Since we started stamping when an arb was born, the ones that appeared during a game lived a median 1m 2s (53,749 arbs). The ones that appeared before the game lived 7m 53s (58,913 arbs). In-game prices move on every play, so a live arb is a race you usually lose.
04 · How big they are
How much an arb actually locks
The median arb locked 1.29% of the total stake: $12.90 on $1,000. A quarter locked less than 0.63%. One in ten locked more than 4.94%. We leave out anything claiming more than 8%, because a lock that big is almost always a stale or misread price, not a real one.
Before you bet
What this means for your next bet
- Treat an arb as gone unless you can place both legs inside a minute or two.
- Place the leg at the book most likely to move or limit you first.
- Skip anything claiming much more than 5%. Big locks are usually stale prices.
- Before the game, arbs last longer. In-game, most are gone before you can act.
- Keep stakes modest. A voided leg turns a lock into an open bet.
Method
How we measured this
Every arb the scanner first saw between the two dates and later saw end. We use the same admission rule the live desk uses: no lock above 8% of the stake, no leg at a book that stopped taking bets, and no pair of legs at two skins of one operator. A life is the time between the first and the last scan that saw the arb. Scans run about once a minute (a little slower for football), and the last sighting is stored at most once a minute, so lives read short by up to a minute. Shares are counts divided by the total.
- Sample
- 174,084 arbs first seen in the window that have since ended
- Window
- Sep 30, 2026 to Oct 27, 2026
- Measured
- Oct 29, 2026
- Source
- Dynatyze arbitrage ledger
Questions4 questions
How long do arbitrage opportunities last?
In our log of 174,084 arbs first seen from 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-27, the median one lasted 2m 17s from first to last sighting. 33.0% were gone inside a minute and 12.0% lasted an hour or more. Arbs that appeared during games lasted a median 1m 2s.
How much profit does a sports arbitrage make?
The median arb we logged locked 1.29% of the total stake, about $12.90 on $1,000. One in ten locked more than 4.94%. That return assumes both legs stand at the logged prices.
Is arbitrage betting risk-free?
No. The arithmetic locks a return only if both bets are accepted and stand. Stake limits, voided bets, a price moving between your two clicks and account restrictions are all real risks.
Do sportsbooks allow arbitrage betting?
Arbitrage is legal, but books may limit or close accounts that bet arbs regularly. Most bettors who arb do it alongside other betting rather than as their only activity.
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Dynatyze is analytics and education for people 21 and over. It is not a sportsbook and never takes a bet. Every number on this page describes the past or the arithmetic of a price; none of it promises a result, and results vary.
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Research and education only. Results vary, and nothing here promises a profit. Every number from our own data names its sample and its dates; every worked example is the arithmetic of the prices shown.