A typical NFL prop at the close carried a 6.17% cut this season.
01 · The cut
Why the two sides add up to more than 100%
A book prices an over at −120 and the under at +100. The over implies 54.55%, the under 50.00%. Together they make 104.55%. One of the two must happen, so the real chances add to exactly 100%. The 4.55% on top is the margin the book builds into the prices.
That margin goes by three names: the vig, the juice and the hold. It is why a bettor who picks winners exactly half the time at −110 still loses money. It is also why the percentage on a price is never the fair chance. It is the fair chance plus a share of the cut.
02 · Remove it
Two steps to a fair price
- Turn both prices into percentages (see reading a price).
- Divide each percentage by their total. The two results now add to 100%. Those are the fair chances.
Worked example · Over −120, under +100
- Over implies
- 54.55%
- Under implies
- 50.00%
- Total
- 104.55%
- Fair over
- 52.17%
- Fair under
- 47.83%
- Fair prices
- −109 / +109
Without the cut, the over is a −109 bet, not a −120 bet. Anyone offering you better than −109 on the over is offering a price above fair.
This is the proportional method, and it is the one to learn first. Sharper methods split the cut unevenly, because books tend to load more of it onto long shots. The no-vig calculator runs three methods side by side so you can see how much the choice moves the answer. On close two-way markets it barely does.
The book's cut: the book keeps 4.55% of balanced action on this market.
As the book prices it
adds up to 104.8%Fair, cut removed
adds up to 100%4.76% over 100% is the book’s cut: 4.55% of everything staked, if the action is balanced.
03 · What props charge
What NFL player props actually charged at the close
We paired every NFL player prop's over and under from the same book, at the same line, in the closing snapshot of 95 games this season. That is 45,204 pairs. The median cut was 6.17%, and the middle half of all pairs sat between 5.75% and 6.48%.
Median prop cut
6.17%
−110 / −110
4.55%
Cheaper than −110
6.5%
For comparison, a standard −110 / −110 bet carries 4.55%, and −114 on both sides carries 6.14%. Only 6.5% of the prop pairs we measured were cheaper than −110 / −110. Props are expensive by default, which is exactly why removing the cut before you judge a price matters. Where the book takes the least breaks the same prices down by book and by market.
Before you bet
What this means for your next bet
- Before you call a price good, take the cut out of both sides and look at the fair number.
- Prefer the book whose two sides add up to the smallest total. Its cut is the smallest.
- Compare your price to the fair price, not to the other side's price.
- If only one book posts the market, the fair price is that one book's opinion. Treat it with care.
Method
How we measured this
For every NFL player prop in the closing snapshot, we took the over and the under from the same book at the same line and computed the cut as 1 minus 1 divided by the sum of the two implied percentages. The figures are medians across all pairs. Alternate ladders that post only one side are left out, because a one-sided price has no cut to measure.
- Sample
- 45,204 over and under pairs across 95 games
- Window
- Sep 10, 2026 to Oct 26, 2026
- Measured
- Oct 29, 2026
- Source
- Dynatyze closing-price archive
Questions4 questions
What does no-vig mean?
A no-vig price is the price with the book's margin removed, so both sides add up to exactly 100%. It is the closest thing to the market's fair estimate of the chance.
How do you calculate fair odds from a two-way market?
Convert both prices to implied percentages, add them, and divide each one by the total. The results are the fair chances; convert them back to prices if you want fair odds.
What is a normal vig on player props?
On the NFL props we measured at the close this season, the median cut was 6.17%, against 4.55% for a standard −110 / −110 bet. It varies by book and by market.
Which method of removing the vig is best?
The proportional method is the standard starting point. Power and additive methods load more of the cut onto the long shot. On close two-way markets the methods agree to within a fraction of a percent; on lopsided ones the choice matters more.
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Research and education only. Results vary, and nothing here promises a profit. Every number from our own data names its sample and its dates; every worked example is the arithmetic of the prices shown.