NFL props carried a median 6.17% cut at the close, against 4.55% on a −110 bet.
01 · Three claims
A prop is three claims on one line
- The player. Who is playing, and how much. A prop assumes a normal night unless the book has already priced in a limit.
- The line. The number to clear: 24.5 points, 62.5 receiving yards, 5.5 strikeouts. The half point means there is no tie.
- The price. What the book charges on each side. This is the only part that says how likely the book thinks each side is.
Worked example · Over 24.5 points at −125, under at +105
- Over implies
- 55.56%
- Under implies
- 48.78%
- Fair over, cut removed
- 53.25%
- Cut on this prop
- 4.16%
The line is 24.5, but the book does not think it is a coin flip. It leans over, and the fair chance under the price says by how much. The anatomy of a prop takes one line apart piece by piece.
02 · Minutes and role
Most props are decided by playing time
Points, rebounds, yards and attempts all scale with how long a player is on the field and how much the offense runs through him. A scorer's line assumes his usual minutes. Change the minutes and you change the line, often by more than any matchup can.
- Injuries around him. A teammate out moves shots, targets and touches. Books adjust fast for stars and slower for role players.
- Blowout risk. A big spread can cost starters the fourth quarter. Overs on starters suffer most.
- Rest and back-to-backs. Minutes limits are often announced late, so the line can move after you bet.
- Pace and opponent. More possessions or plays means more chances. A slow game can sink an over without anyone playing badly.
03 · Check the price
Then check the price, twice
Props are expensive. At the close this season, NFL player props carried a median cut of 6.17%, well above the 4.55% of a standard −110 bet. A good read on the minutes does not help much if you pay 6% for it, so take the cut out, compare the fair chance with your own read and shop the number.
- Turn both prices into a fair chance with the cut removed.
- Decide what you think the real chance is, and why. Minutes, role, matchup.
- If your chance is clearly higher than the fair price, look for the best price across books.
- Check the line too: half a point on a low-count prop is often worth more than ten cents of price.
Before you bet
What this means for your next bet
- Confirm the player's role and minutes tonight before anything else.
- Take the cut out of both sides and read the fair chance.
- Only bet when your reason is something the price has not caught up with.
- Shop the line and the price at three books at least.
- Size props smaller than game lines. They carry more cut and more variance.
Questions3 questions
What is a player prop bet?
A player prop is a bet on one player's statistic in one game, such as over or under 24.5 points. It does not depend on which team wins.
Why do player props have higher vig?
Books take smaller bets on props and have less market information to price them than game lines, so they build in a bigger margin. On NFL props at the close this season the median cut was 6.17%, against 4.55% on a standard −110 bet.
What should I check before betting a player prop?
The player's expected minutes and role tonight, injuries around him, blowout risk, the pace of the game and the price at several books with the cut removed.
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Research and education only. Results vary, and nothing here promises a profit. Every number from our own data names its sample and its dates; every worked example is the arithmetic of the prices shown.