8 of 10 is consistent with a true rate anywhere from 49% to 94%.
01 · Small samples
Ten games is a small sample
A hit rate is a count: games over the line, divided by games played. Counts from a handful of games swing a lot by chance alone. A true 55% shooter will look like a 40% shooter in some ten-game stretches and a 70% shooter in others, without anything about him changing.
| Record | Hit rate | Honest range |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 10 | 80% | 49% to 94% |
| 16 of 20 | 80% | 58% to 92% |
| 40 of 50 | 80% | 67% to 89% |
Notice how slowly the range narrows. Five times as many games still leaves a range more than twenty points wide. That is why a hit rate should always be read with its sample beside it, and why a rate on fewer than ten games is a hint, not a number.
02 · Same line, same role
A hit rate only counts if the line and the role were the same
- The line moves. Clearing 18.5 in October says little about clearing 24.5 now. Check the rate at tonight's line.
- The role changes. A rate built while a teammate was out describes a different job. So does a rate from before a trade.
- The opponent matters. Ten games against weak defenses overstates what happens against a strong one.
- Minutes decide counts. A player who hit 8 of 10 in 34 minutes is not the same bet at 26.
03 · Using it well
How to use a hit rate well
- Read the sample first. Fewer than ten games: a hint at most.
- Compare the low end of the honest range with the price. If −110 needs 52.4% and the range starts below that, the record has not shown an edge.
- Check that the line, the role and the minutes match tonight.
- Use the rate to ask a question (why has he cleared this?), then answer it with minutes, usage and matchup.
Before you bet
What this means for your next bet
- Read the sample size before the rate.
- Check the rate at tonight's line, not an old one.
- Make sure his role and minutes match the games in the sample.
- Ask what the price already knows. A famous streak is usually priced in.
Questions3 questions
What is a hit rate in player props?
A hit rate is the share of recent games in which a player went over (or under) a given line. Eight hits in ten games is an 80% hit rate.
How many games make a reliable hit rate?
More than most tables show. After 8 hits in 10 games the true rate could plausibly be anywhere from 49% to 94%. Even 40 of 50 leaves a range of 67% to 89%. Treat short samples as a reason to look closer, not as a probability.
Are high hit rates profitable?
Not on their own. Books see the same records and move lines or prices to match. A hit rate helps only when you know something about tonight that the record, and the price, do not.
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Research and education only. Results vary, and nothing here promises a profit. Every number from our own data names its sample and its dates; every worked example is the arithmetic of the prices shown.