In 10 to 19 mph wind the under won 59.1% against the closing total, 2015 to 2025.
01 · Why wind
Why wind matters more than cold or rain
Wind changes the two things that score points fastest: long passes and field goals. Kickers lose range, quarterbacks throw shorter, and offenses run more, which keeps the clock moving. Cold on its own did little in the same games: the 122 played below freezing went under 50.8% of the time, close to a coin flip. That is why wind speed is the weather number to watch.
Books know this, and totals drop when the forecast is windy. The question is whether they drop enough. To answer it we compared final scores with the closing total, the last price before kickoff, which already includes the forecast and everything the market learned before the game.
02 · What we found
Eleven seasons of wind and closing totals
| Wind | Games | Under | Vs total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 9 mph | 1,313 | 47.5% | +1.0 |
| 10 to 14 mph | 454 | 59.4% | −1.6 |
| 15 to 19 mph | 179 | 58.2% | −2.6 |
| 20 mph or more | 49 | 50.0% | +0.6 |
Under, 10 to 14 mph
59.4%
Under, 15 to 19 mph
58.2%
Under, calm games
47.5%
The market did lower totals: the average closing total was 44.4 in 10 to 14 mph wind and 44.2 in 15 to 19 mph, against 45 in calm games. Even so, windy games finished −1.6 and −2.6 points against the close on average. For comparison, games under a roof went under 49.5% of the time.
03 · Read it carefully
Read it carefully before you bet it
- The samples are modest. 454 and 179 games are enough to notice a lean, not to promise one. A long losing run is entirely possible.
- Strong wind is rare. Only 49 games had 20 mph or more, and they split evenly. Too few to say anything.
- The market adapts. A pattern that held from 2015 to 2025 may already be priced more fully today. Check the current total against the forecast, not against this table.
- The recorded wind is a single reading. Gusts, wind direction and stadium shape all matter and none of them is in this number.
Before you bet
What this means for your next bet
- Check the wind forecast for outdoor games, not just the temperature.
- Compare the current total with the total before the forecast changed.
- Treat a windy-game under as a lean, sized small, not a sure thing.
- Ignore the table for domes and closed roofs.
Method
How we measured this
Regular-season and playoff games from the 2015 to 2025 seasons played outdoors with a recorded wind speed, grouped into four wind bands. For each game we compared the final combined score with the closing total. Under is the share of decided games that finished below the total; games landing exactly on it are left out. Domes and closed roofs are reported separately.
- Sample
- 1,995 outdoor games with a recorded wind speed
- Window
- Sep 10, 2015 to Feb 8, 2026
- Measured
- Oct 29, 2026
- Source
- NFL schedule and results archive, closing totals included
Questions3 questions
Does wind affect NFL totals?
Yes. In outdoor NFL games from 2015 to 2025, games played in 10 to 19 mph wind went under the closing total 59.1% of the time (pushes left out), even though books had already lowered those totals. Calm games went under 47.5%.
How much wind is too much for an NFL over?
There is no fixed number, but in our data the effect showed from about 10 mph and held through 19 mph. Games at 20 mph or more were too few to draw any conclusion.
Does cold weather affect NFL totals?
Much less than wind, in our data. Of 122 outdoor NFL games from 2015 to 2025 played below freezing, 50.8% went under the closing total (pushes left out), close to a coin flip. Wind is the weather factor that moved results against the close.
Responsible gaming
Dynatyze is analytics and education for people 21 and over. It is not a sportsbook and never takes a bet. Every number on this page describes the past or the arithmetic of a price; none of it promises a result, and results vary.
Set a budget before you bet and keep to it. If gambling stops being fun, help is free and confidential at 1-800-GAMBLER, and our responsible gaming page lists more ways to get support.
Continue reading
Research and education only. Results vary, and nothing here promises a profit. Every number from our own data names its sample and its dates; every worked example is the arithmetic of the prices shown.