Hit Rate, in plain words
A hit rate is how often a player cleared a given line over a window of games: their last 5, 10 or 20, or their whole season. It is the most quoted number in prop betting because it is easy to read. It is also easy to over-read.
Small samples are noisy. A player who truly clears a line 55% of the time will show 8 or more hits in 10 games about 10% of the time, just by chance. So "8 of their last 10" is weak evidence on its own, especially when the line was different in some of those games.
Use a hit rate beside the things that explain it: their minutes, their role, the line they were set at each night and the price you are being asked to pay. A longer window with the same role is worth more than a hot short one. And compare the rate with the price's implied chance, because a 70% hit rate on a -250 line is no bargain.
The idea, drawn
Worked example · illustration
How often a true 55% player shows 8 of 10
- True rate
- 55%
- Games
- 10
- Shows 8 or more
- 10.0%
- About
- 1 in 10
- Each game is a 55% chance to clear, independent of the last.
- The chance of 8, 9 or 10 hits in 10 is the sum of the three binomial terms.
- That sum is 10.0%, so about 1 player in 10 with a true 55% rate shows 8 of 10 in any given stretch.
A hot 10-game hit rate is common even for an ordinary player. The sample has to be read with the number.