Middling, in plain words
A middle is a pair of bets on both sides of a line at two different numbers. Take Over 44.5 at one book and Under 47.5 at another. If the total lands 45, 46 or 47, both bets win. Anywhere else, one wins and one loses, and you pay a little vig on the pair.
That small cost is the price of the chance at the middle. With both sides at the usual price, missing costs a few dollars on every $100 a side, while hitting wins both bets. So a middle is worth it only when the gap lands often enough to pay for all the misses.
How often a gap lands depends on the sport and the numbers. A gap across a key number in the NFL, such as 3 or 7, lands far more often than the same-size gap elsewhere. A wide gap on a player prop can land often too. Price the gap before you chase it; the middles board estimates how often each one lands.
The idea, drawn
Worked example · illustration
Over 44.5 and Under 47.5, both at −110
- Both win (45 to 47)
- +$181.82
- One wins, one loses
- −$9.09
- Stake
- $100 a side
- Break-even landing rate
- 4.8%
- Each $100 at −110 wins $90.91.
- Land in the middle and both win: +$181.82. Miss and one wins while the other loses: $90.91 minus $100 = −$9.09.
- Break even when p x $181.82 = (1 - p) x $9.09, so p = 4.76%.
If the total lands from 45 to 47 more than 4.8% of the time, the pair is worth more than it costs.