Moneyline, in plain words
A moneyline bet is the simplest bet in sports: you pick the winner. There is no point spread. The price does the work instead, so the favorite pays less than you risk and the underdog pays more.
Prices are quoted in American odds. A minus number is what you risk to win $100, so −150 means $150 to win $100. A plus number is what $100 wins, so +130 means $100 wins $130. Each price also states a probability: −150 implies 60.00% and +130 implies 43.48%.
Those two add up to 103.48%, not 100%, because the book's margin is inside them. Strip it out and the fair chances are about 58.0% and 42.0%. A moneyline is worth betting only when your own read of the chance beats the price's, which is a question about the number, not about who you think will win.
The idea, drawn
Worked example · illustration
A game at −150 / +130
- Favorite
- −150
- Underdog
- +130
- Favorite pays on $100
- $66.67
- Underdog pays on $100
- $130.00
- −150 implies 150 / 250 = 60.00%.
- +130 implies 100 / 230 = 43.48%.
- They add to 103.48%, so the fair split is 58.0% / 42.0% once the margin is removed.
The underdog is worth a bet only if it wins more than 43.5% of the time, the break-even its price implies.