Betting Desk · The Dynatyze Line
The Line's Report Card
The Dynatyze Line is our named, vig-free fair price — the true number, stated earlier and cleaner than the field. A claim like that is only as strong as its published record. So here it is: every settled moneyline game, graded against the sharpest number a market ever prints — the close. When The Line leaned harder than the crowd, did the close prove it right? No cherry-picking, no deleted misses.
Covering MLB · NBA · NFL · last graded Aug 22
NBA has fewer than 20 graded games, so its rate is left as a dash rather than printed as a number one game could flip.
What “the close” means here
On 370 games the close is now the book's own final number, stamped the moment it came down.
Games graded on the last number we saw before kickoff. Every grade above sits on this basis today.
Closing prices the book itself stamped, across 370 games. As these fill in, this record stops being graded against an estimate.
Does the number come true?
Our fair probability vs how often those bets actually hit.
Across 9,249 settled bets, our fair number lands inside its 95% band in 6 of 6 probability buckets — off by 0.3pp on average. When we say a price is 55%, it comes in near 55%.
Every +EV bet we surfaced, graded win or loss against the game log — grouped by our fair probability, not cherry-picked. Settles where a box score can prove it: MLB.
How tight is tonight’s market?
How far apart the books land on the same fair price — tight is efficient, wide is shoppable.
The record, week by week
Click a column for that week’s detail · bar height = beat-close rate, bar width is fixed
W4 is the best week on the board: 67% of that slate's leans were confirmed by the close. A column is greyed when fewer than 8 games have settled — it is drawn, but never coloured as a verdict.
When The Line disagrees with the crowd
Bucketed by how much harder The Line leaned than the field at open.
- Avg CLV
- +0.31%
- Avg edge
- 0.2pp
- Avg CLV
- +0.11%
- Avg edge
- 1.4pp
- Avg CLV
- -1.82%
- Avg edge
- 2.2pp
Every settled game counted — confirmed or not.
Is The Line calibrated?
Predicted (open) probability vs where the market actually closed.