Betting Desk · The Dynatyze Line
The Line's Report Card
The Dynatyze Line is our named, vig-free fair price — the true number, stated earlier and cleaner than the field. A claim like that is only as strong as its published record. So here it is: every settled moneyline game, graded against the sharpest number a market ever prints — the close. When The Line leaned harder than the crowd, did the close prove it right? No cherry-picking, no deleted misses.
Covering MLB · NBA · last graded Jul 8
Does the number come true?
Our fair probability vs how often those bets actually hit.
Across 1,603 settled bets, our fair number lands inside its 95% band in 5 of 6 probability buckets — off by 2.8pp on average. When we say a price is 55%, it comes in near 55%.
Every +EV bet we surfaced, graded win or loss against the game log — grouped by our fair probability, not cherry-picked. Settles where a box score can prove it: MLB.
How tight is tonight’s market?
How far apart the books land on the same fair price — tight is efficient, wide is shoppable.
The record, week by week
Same ledger, sliced by close week — is the grade holding?
When The Line disagrees with the crowd
Bucketed by how much harder The Line leaned than the field at open.
- Avg CLV
- +0.17%
- Avg edge
- 0.1pp
- Avg CLV
- +2.31%
- Avg edge
- 1.3pp
- Avg CLV
- +7.40%
- Avg edge
- 2.4pp
Every settled game counted — confirmed or not.
Is The Line calibrated?
Predicted (open) probability vs where the market actually closed.
Recently graded
| Game | Edge | Predicted → close | CLV | Beat close | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLBHome lean | 0.6pp | 70% → 73% | +4.99% | Yes | Jul 8 |
| MLBHome lean | 0.0pp | 49% → 48% | -2.45% | No | Jul 8 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.0pp | 46% → 48% | +3.67% | Yes | Jul 8 |
| MLBHome lean | 0.0pp | 60% → 60% | -0.55% | No | Jul 8 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.8pp | 56% → 50% | -10.87% | No | Jul 7 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.8pp | 54% → 53% | +0.41% | Yes | Jul 7 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.7pp | 53% → 51% | -3.73% | No | Jul 7 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.3pp | 48% → 50% | +4.74% | Yes | Jul 7 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.3pp | 60% → 60% | +0.26% | Yes | Jul 7 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.1pp | 43% → 44% | +1.71% | Yes | Jul 7 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.5pp | 38% → 33% | -12.73% | No | Jul 7 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.0pp | 48% → 45% | -7.18% | No | Jul 7 |
| MLBHome lean | 0.0pp | 52% → 52% | +0.89% | Yes | Jul 7 |
| MLBHome lean | 0.6pp | 51% → 53% | +4.36% | Yes | Jul 7 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.3pp | 38% → 43% | +12.08% | Yes | Jul 7 |
| MLBHome lean | 0.6pp | 38% → 34% | -10.45% | No | Jul 7 |
| MLBHome lean | 0.9pp | 63% → 68% | +9.25% | Yes | Jul 7 |
| MLBHome lean | 0.1pp | 49% → 49% | -0.99% | No | Jul 7 |
| MLBHome lean | 0.4pp | 50% → 53% | +6.14% | Yes | Jul 7 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.1pp | 51% → 53% | +3.50% | Yes | Jul 6 |
| MLBHome lean | 0.1pp | 52% → 47% | -11.09% | No | Jul 6 |
| MLBHome lean | 0.1pp | 55% → 51% | -7.69% | No | Jul 6 |
| MLBHome lean | 0.2pp | 54% → 54% | 0.00% | Yes | Jul 6 |
| MLBHome lean | 0.1pp | 40% → 34% | -16.80% | No | Jul 6 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.3pp | 59% → 60% | +2.52% | Yes | Jul 6 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.2pp | 35% → 33% | -3.79% | No | Jul 5 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.2pp | 44% → 49% | +10.96% | Yes | Jul 5 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.6pp | 48% → 48% | +1.88% | Yes | Jul 5 |
| MLBHome lean | 0.3pp | 47% → 48% | +3.24% | Yes | Jul 5 |
| MLBHome lean | 0.1pp | 48% → 48% | +0.47% | Yes | Jul 5 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.1pp | 50% → 53% | +5.67% | Yes | Jul 5 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.1pp | 42% → 45% | +7.47% | Yes | Jul 5 |
| MLBHome lean | 2.1pp | 49% → 52% | +10.02% | Yes | Jul 5 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.4pp | 56% → 55% | -1.09% | No | Jul 5 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.3pp | 43% → 44% | +2.97% | Yes | Jul 5 |
| MLBHome lean | 0.2pp | 53% → 48% | -9.36% | No | Jul 5 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.0pp | 45% → 45% | 0.00% | No | Jul 5 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.4pp | 50% → 51% | +3.79% | Yes | Jul 5 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.2pp | 46% → 44% | -5.50% | No | Jul 5 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.6pp | 31% → 30% | -1.21% | No | Jul 5 |
| MLBAway lean | 1.5pp | 60% → 60% | +2.54% | Yes | Jul 5 |
| MLBAway lean | 1.2pp | 61% → 61% | +2.55% | Yes | Jul 5 |
| MLBAway lean | 2.7pp | 56% → 56% | +4.78% | Yes | Jul 5 |
| MLBHome lean | 0.1pp | 61% → 62% | +2.13% | Yes | Jul 5 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.3pp | 54% → 54% | 0.00% | No | Jul 5 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.4pp | 58% → 59% | +1.75% | Yes | Jul 5 |
| MLBHome lean | 0.8pp | 60% → 60% | +1.39% | Yes | Jul 5 |
| MLBHome lean | 0.3pp | 54% → 54% | +0.40% | Yes | Jul 4 |
| MLBAway lean | 0.9pp | 44% → 44% | +1.30% | Yes | Jul 4 |
| MLBHome lean | 1.3pp | 52% → 52% | +1.84% | Yes | Jul 4 |
Each row links to the game's Line Autopsy — the full open→close path per book.