Pairs that hit together
For each pair of legs we count the games both landed, next to how often they would if they were unrelated.
Correlations and parlays
Which legs move together, and what that does to the price.
Some legs rise and fall together: a quarterback's yards and his top receiver's catches. We count how often pairs hit together in real games and price the parlay from that.
What it finds
The parlay's fair price
Leg by leg, the builder prices the parlay from those joint rates instead of multiplying odds as if the legs were strangers.
Where books misprice
When a book prices a same-game parlay as if the legs were unrelated, a pair that moves together can be worth more than the price says.
Two legs that move together
Illustration, not a live betEach leg-110
If unrelated+264, hits 25%
Hit together32 of 100 games
Fair price at 32%+213
- Two coin-flip legs at -110 multiply to +264 if they have nothing to do with each other.
- If the pair actually landed together in 32 of 100 games, the fair price is +213.
- Taking +264 on a 32% event is worth 0.32 × 3.645 − 1 = +16.6% on average.
Most books already adjust same-game parlays for this. The edge lives where they adjust too little.
Before you bet it
- The joint rate rests on enough games both players played.
- Both roles are the same as in those games.
- Your book's same-game parlay price, not the two single prices multiplied.
- You accept that a parlay loses far more often than it wins.
Free and with the betting plan
What you seeSigned outBetting plan
Tonight's games to build fromShownShown
How often pairs hit togetherLockedShown
Correlation-aware parlay pricingLockedShown
Open it by sport
College football
Every book