Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers — 2026 Week 13 | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability | Dynatyze

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Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers — 2026 Week 13 | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability | Dynatyze

When the Texans have the ball

C.J. Stroudagainstthe Steelers

projected starter · chart of Tue, Sep 8, 2026

Staying on schedule

PIT+58

Share of first and second downs that gained enough to keep the offence ahead of the chains. Third down is downstream of this, which is why a team can convert well and still stall: it is the unit that never faces third-and-nine that wins the afternoon. This has the biggest weekly sample of the five, so its week-to-week reading is the one to trust most.

weakest in the leaguestrongest

Texans offence

40.8%

29 of 32 · 823 early downs

Steelers defence

41.6%

11 of 32 · 824 early downs

Week to week Texans's offence held its middle half of weeks between 38.3% and 45.7% over 17 weeks — 1.2 times the league's whole season spread, about as wide as the league itself. Steelers's defence held its own between 37.8% and 47.3% — 1.3 times the league's whole season spread, about as wide as the league itself.

Explosive plays, 20 yards or more

PIT+29

weakest in the leaguestrongest

Texans offence

5.2%

24 of 32 · 1,078 plays

Steelers defence

5.5%

15 of 32 · 1,104 plays

Sacks on the dropback

HOU+13

weakest in the leaguestrongest

Texans offence

4.8%

7 of 32 · 648 dropbacks

Steelers defence

7.0%

11 of 32 · 688 dropbacks

Expected points a play

PIT+10

weakest in the leaguestrongest

Texans offence

−0.013

21 of 32 · 1,078 plays

Steelers defence

+0.018

18 of 32 · 1,104 plays

Third downs converted

HOU+3

weakest in the leaguestrongest

Texans offence

37.8%

24 of 32 · 230 third downs

Steelers defence

42.6%

25 of 32 · 235 third downs

When the Steelers have the ball

Aaron Rodgersagainstthe Texans

projected starter · chart of Tue, Sep 8, 2026

Staying on schedule

HOU+52

Share of first and second downs that gained enough to keep the offence ahead of the chains. Third down is downstream of this, which is why a team can convert well and still stall: it is the unit that never faces third-and-nine that wins the afternoon. This has the biggest weekly sample of the five, so its week-to-week reading is the one to trust most.

the 2025 regular season · the rooms, read for these two clubs

Two identities, on the league scale

Last season, labelled as last season

There is no 2026 play-by-play at all yet — the plays are about 20 minutes after each final, with the 5:00 AM ET nightly sync behind it and the Monday 4:00 AM ET weekly sync as the audited pass, and no game has been played. So every rate below is drawn from the 2025 regular season, labelled that way on purpose rather than dressed up as a forecast for this one.

Pass rate over expected

The Over Expected Room →

How far a play-caller ran from the pass rate the situation asked for, in percentage points. A team above zero passes more than the down, distance and score script called for; a team below it runs more. A scramble counts as a pass, because the model's idea of a pass is the dropback.

Texans

-1.1

13 of 32 · 1,072 plays

most run-heavymost pass-heavy

league mean -2.3 · 32 ranked

Steelers

-0.7

9 of 32 · 973 plays

Fourth downs, went for it

The Fourth Down Room →

Share of fourth downs on which the offence ran a play instead of kicking. The denominator is every fourth down with a decision on it — go, field goal or punt.

Texans

13.7%

31 of 32 · 139 fourth downs

most conservativemost aggressive

league mean 23.3% · 32 ranked

Blitz sent on defence

The Tendency Room →

Share of charted dropbacks this defence sent an extra rusher on. Charting is a separate feed from the play-by-play and it begins in 2022, so an older basis season has no blitz number at all.

Texans

21.3%

31 of 32 · 623 charted dropbacks

least blitz sentmost blitz sent

league mean 29.4% · 32 ranked

Drives that scored

The Drive Room →

Share of this offence's possessions that ended in a touchdown or a field goal.

Texans

42.9%

11 of 32 · 191 possessions

fewest drives scoredmost drives scored

league mean 39.6% · 32 ranked

Steelers

39.0%

Drives allowed to score

The Drive Room →

Share of opponent possessions this defence let end in points. Lower is better, and the rank reads that way — rank 1 is the stingiest defence in the league. Every possession in football is one team's drive and another team's stop, so POOLED over the league these are the same drives counted twice. The figure printed here is the unweighted mean of the qualifying clubs' rates, which is a different average: a club that faces more drives than it runs pulls the two apart, by a few hundredths over a full season and by a few tenths early in one.

Texans

27.6%

1 of 32 · 185 possessions defended

2025 regular season, weeks 1 through 18

The usage each side was carrying

Texans

Player	G	Snap	Tgt	Car	RZ	PPR
QBC.J. Stroud	14	91.2%	0.0%	12.5%	8	14.9
WRNico Collins	15	77.2%	24.2%	0.4%	20	15.1
TEDalton Schultz	17	71.1%	19.1%	0.0%	12	10.5
QBDavis Mills	6	70.5%	0.0%	8.2%	3	11.4
WRXavier Hutchinson	16	57.8%	11.2%	0.7%	8	6.1
WRJayden Higgins	17	57.2%	12.4%	0.0%	9	7.6
RBWoody Marks	15	54.2%	7.3%	46.3%	41	9.7
WRChristian Kirk	11	50.8%	14.6%	0.0%	7	5.3

Steelers

Player	G	Snap	Tgt	Car	RZ	PPR
QBAaron Rodgers	16	95.7%	0.2%	5.6%	3	14.2
WRDK Metcalf	15	87.3%	22.4%	0.4%	14	12.5
TEDarnell Washington

Note

Shares are the mean of a player's weekly share, over the games he cleared eight snaps in — not a season total divided by a season, which would let one enormous week stand in for a role. Weeks 19 through 22 are excluded by hand: the usage table spells every row's season type REG, playoffs included, so the week bound is what keeps the postseason out.