Picks hit 49.5% in October; a 3-pick entry needs 53.6% to 55.0% a pick on the three apps.
01 · How entries pay
Every pick has to clear a bar
A pick'em entry pays a fixed multiple when all of its picks hit. Because every pick must land, the multiple has to be spread across the picks. The per-pick break-even is the rate at which the entry pays back exactly what it costs over time.
| Picks | PrizePicks | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 57.7% | 53.5% |
| 3 | 55.0% | 53.6% |
| 4 | 56.2% | 53.7% |
| 5 | 54.9% | 54.9% |
| 6 | 54.7% | 55.3% |
Compare those with a sportsbook bet at −110, which needs 52.4%. Every pick'em bar is higher, because the app's margin sits inside the payout table instead of the price.
02 · How picks landed
How October's picks actually landed
We graded every standard pick'em line our desk saw on five apps between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-27: 95,571 picks that finished as a hit or a miss. Overs and unders are graded as separate picks, and the apps offered more overs (50,058) than unders (45,513), so the overall rate is a mix of the two sides. The interesting part is the split.
All standard picks
49.5%
Overs
47.8%
Unders
51.4%
| App | Picks | Hit |
|---|---|---|
| PrizePicks | 39,495 | 50.0% |
| Betr Picks | 26,390 | 48.8% |
| Underdog | 16,572 | 49.8% |
| DraftKings Pick6 | 11,662 | 49.2% |
| Dabble | 1,452 | 50.0% |
Overs hit 47.8% of the time and unders 51.4%. That is one month, and the gap can close or flip. What it does show is that no blanket side clears the bar: even the better side sat several points short of the 55.0% a 3-pick PrizePicks entry needs.
03 · What actually works
The only way over the bar
Taking lines at random lands near half, and half is well short of every bar above. A pick only helps an entry if its real chance is higher than its share of the bar. The most direct evidence of that is a sportsbook pricing the same line: if the books price an over at −160 and the under at +135, the over's fair chance with the cut removed is 59.1%, which clears every bar in the table.
- Take the cut out of the sportsbook prices on the same player and line.
- Keep only picks whose fair chance clears your entry's per-pick break-even.
- Prefer the entry size with the lowest bar for the picks you have. Bigger is not better.
- Track your own hit rate by entry size. A month is a small sample.
Before you bet
What this means for your next bet
- Know your entry's per-pick break-even before you choose a single pick.
- Compare each pick with sportsbook prices on the same line, cut removed.
- Do not lean on one side by habit. October's split may not last.
- Fewer, better picks beat a longer slip with weaker ones.
Method
How we measured this
Every standard (not boosted or discounted) pick'em line the desk saw on PrizePicks, Underdog, Betr, DraftKings Pick6 and Dabble for games dated in the window, graded against the final stat. Hit rates are hits divided by hits plus misses; pushes and voids are left out. Overs and unders are graded as separate picks; the apps offered more overs than unders, so the two sides are not paired. Break-evens come from each app's published payout tables as the desk reads them.
- Sample
- 95,571 standard picks graded hit or miss
- Window
- Oct 1, 2026 to Oct 27, 2026
- Measured
- Oct 29, 2026
- Source
- Dynatyze pick'em grading ledger
Questions3 questions
What is the break-even for a PrizePicks 2-pick Power Play?
A 2-pick Power Play pays 3x, so each pick needs to hit about 57.7% of the time: the square root of one over the payout.
What percentage of pick'em picks hit?
Of 95,571 standard picks we graded across five apps in October 2026, 49.5% hit. Overs hit 47.8% and unders 51.4%. Pushes and voids are left out.
Which pick'em entry size has the lowest break-even?
It depends on the app's payout table. On Underdog's published standard table the per-pick bar runs from 53.5% for two picks to 55.3% for six. On PrizePicks Power Plays the 2-pick bar is the highest at 57.7%.
Responsible gaming
Dynatyze is analytics and education for people 21 and over. It is not a sportsbook and never takes a bet. Every number on this page describes the past or the arithmetic of a price; none of it promises a result, and results vary.
Dynatyze is not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by PrizePicks, Underdog or any other pick'em app; their names are their owners' trademarks and are used only to describe the lines compared here.
Set a budget before you bet and keep to it. If gambling stops being fun, help is free and confidential at 1-800-GAMBLER, and our responsible gaming page lists more ways to get support.
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Research and education only. Results vary, and nothing here promises a profit. Every number from our own data names its sample and its dates; every worked example is the arithmetic of the prices shown.