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Reading every settled NBA moneyline against its close…
45.7% of graded NBA games went The Line's way by the close, an average CLV of −1.37% — read it as direction until 100 games.
Every settled NBA moneyline graded against the market’s closing number — the sharpest final word a market states. This is a closing-line report, not a win-loss record: it never grades the game’s result. The whole ledger is published, misses included.
Graded games where the close confirmed The Line's early lean.
What the early number was worth against the close, per graded game.
How much harder The Line leaned than the field at the open, in chance points.
Settled NBA moneyline games with a pinned open and a pinned last pregame price.
35 NBA games graded so far — read everything below as direction, not verdict. A bucket's rate prints at 8 games, and the card calls its own record a verdict at 100.
No NBA row is set aside by the 24-hour close rule. 1 graded game has no tip time on record from any source, so the rule cannot be checked on it; unknown is not stale, so it stays in the record.
You are landing exactly on the close, median 0.0% across 35 priced tickets. Your results from here will look like the market's.
Click a column for that week’s detail · bar height = beat-close rate, bar width is fixed
W2 is the best week on the board: 47% of that slate's leans were confirmed by the close. A column is greyed when fewer than 8 games have settled — it is drawn, but never coloured as a verdict.
Bucketed by how much harder The Line leaned than the field at open.
Every settled game counted — confirmed or not.
Predicted (open) probability vs where the market actually closed.
San Antonio Spurs at PHX5.970→70+8.0613NBA
Sacramento Kings at GSW0.833→32+0.6313NBA
Boston Celtics vs PHI0.663→71+10.8913NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves at MIA1.252→60+16.0313NBA
Detroit Pistons at WAS1.862→52-16.4713NBA
Atlanta Hawks at IND0.546→47+3.1813NBA
Toronto Raptors vs LA Clippers0.662→62+1.1913NBAThe home sidefield0.061→61+0.002
Los Angeles Lakers vs SAC1.178→77+0.2713NBASan Antonio Spurs vs ATL1.174→71-2.6213NBA
Philadelphia 76ers at BKN1.171→72+3.1613NBA
New York Knicks vs WAS1.270→67-3.0313NBA
Miami Heat vs NOP0.473→71-1.3713NBABoston Celtics at CLE0.657→40-41.5513
Orlando Magic at MEM0.656→54-2.3611NBA
Chicago Bulls vs PHX0.144→44+0.0011NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder vs MIL0.583→81-1.9411NBAMinnesota Timberwolves at IND2.460→55-4.7411
Golden State Warriors vs LAL0.559→69+14.0311NBA
Denver Nuggets at UTA0.352→49-5.9211NBA
New Orleans Pelicans at OKC4.744→54+27.8311NBA
Charlotte Hornets vs BKN0.464→52-23.0611Los Angeles Lakers at SAC1.165→61-5.0212NBAMinnesota Timberwolves at MIL1.765→65+2.3812NBADetroit Pistons vs PHX0.859→55-5.4412NBAPhiladelphia 76ers vs NYK1.253→38-35.2212NBA
Memphis Grizzlies at ATL0.941→41+1.6012
Utah Jazz at DEN0.442→42+0.0011NBAGolden State Warriors at LA Clippers0.658→57-0.9610Toronto Raptors vs MIA1.352→58+12.3811On 28 games the close is now the book's own final number, stamped the moment it came down.
Games graded on the last number we saw before kickoff. Every grade above sits on this basis today.
Closing prices the book itself stamped, across 28 games. As these fill in, this record stops being graded against an estimate.
